Based on the latest data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigeria experienced a 2.81% decrease in active mobile subscriptions in January 2024, dropping to 218.40m from 224.71m in December 2023. This marks the first decline in mobile subscriber numbers following three consecutive periods of marginal growth. The notable reduction in MTN subscribers, the largest operator in terms of subscriber number, was the driver of the overall industry decline, with a decrease of 7.2m subscribers. This brought MTN's total active subscriptions down to 79.78m from 87m in December 2023.

Airtel, having recently surpassed Globacom to secure the position of the second-largest operator, observed a modest increase of 767,887 subscriptions, bringing its subscriber base to 62.6m in January 2024, up from 61.8m in December of the previous year. Similarly, Globacom experienced a slight rise in subscriptions, with its subscriber count growing by 321,869 to reach 61.9m from 61.6m in December. However, the fourth mobile operator, 9mobile, witnessed a decline in subscriptions, dropping by 135,788 to 13.7m in January 2024 from 13.94m in December 2023.

With the decrease in active connected lines reported by telecommunications companies, the country's teledensity, which gauges the number of active telephone connections per 100 inhabitants, dropped to 100.75 in January 2024 from the 103.66% recorded in December of the previous year. This decline in mobile subscriber numbers also resulted in a reduction in broadband penetration, falling to 42.53% from 43.71% in December 2023. We maintain our belief that the implementation of the December 2023 directive to telecommunications companies to disconnect subscribers whose SIM cards are not linked to their National Identification Numbers (NINs) will negatively impact the short-term growth of mobile subscribers for these companies. Consequently, this poses a downside risk to telco revenue growth in 2024, albeit at a minimal level.