Wednesday, April 10, 2019   / 08:56PM / ByTope Kolade Fasua*

Thearticle was titled “DOES BOLA TINUBU EVER LISTEN TO HIMSELF?”

Or Ishould title this; “Why Does APC Never Listen to Bola Tinubu (BAT)?” Well, there is surely something that the followers of Bola Ahmed Tinubu see inhim, which some of us don’t. What we see more often is the bad news, thepurported greed and alleged ownership of half of Lagos, and so on. But someyears back, I was quite touched by the advice that BAT gave to the Jonathangovernment around the subject of a recessing economy, that I wrote an articleon this page titled “Revisiting Tinubu-nomics” (published on the 15th ofOctober 2015), and made efforts to meet the man. Through his then Chief ofStaff, Mr Sunday Dare, I did meet Tinubu at Lagos House at Asokoro, Abuja, fora fleeting minute. Then politics started for me late in 2016 and we have wagedour own counter gambit to what BAT and his camp has to offer. We failed to makea dent perhaps, but we tried. Nothing could have stopped us from trying.

Justas I was amazed by the kind of advice that Tinubu gave the Jonathan governmentand urged him in 2015 to ensure he got the Buhari government to adopt some ofthose ideas, again he has made some profound new statements at his 2019colloquium which I believe need amplification. However, and unfortunately too,Tinubu has not succeeded to influence the economic path of this current Buhariadministration. It is also doubtful if he will influence the coming one. Andthis is cause for concern.  I will do a recap of the statements thatcapture my imagination from past Tinubu statements and also the recent one. Iwonder if it is these statements that attract people to BAT. But I also seecontradictions. Is Bola Ahmed Tinubu who his statements say he is? Or deep atheart he is one person and outwardly another - some sort of bipolarpersonality? ……for his statements show that this man aligns with the rightapproaches that can truly help Nigeria.  However what we hear is that hehas pocketed Lagos and his companies probably vanish with half of all taxescollected by Lagos State Government. Or does he see himself as some modern-dayRobin Hood, taking massively from the state through pseudo-official capers andspending on the hoi-polloi close to him?  Also could we say the ideologiesthat he espouses rubs off on those closest to him - chiefly those he has put ingovernment at one level or the other?

Fouryears ago when I commented on his article, some friends asked if I thought hewrote the article himself. Truly, for someone with so many people millingaround him, I doubt if he could find time to write. My recent foray intopolitics slowed down my writing. But in the recent colloquium, Bola Tinubuspoke extensively extempore, and didn’t miss a beat regarding his economicideology. Now I believe these ideas are truly his.  My appeal for now isfor him to know that as someone very influential in our national politics andwho has enthroned a number of governors, he cannot continue to light lamps andstick them under bushels. The lives of 200million people and more, and ourcollective future, depend on people like him who have figured out how tocapture power in this society. Especially since his views are so different,riveting and refreshing, a lot hangs on this man’s frail shoulders. Like theysay on the streets, ‘if you know, you know’. Only trulydiscerning people will understand the power of Tinubu’s economic proposals.

Let’sgo.

InNovember 2014, Bola Tinubu wrote to Okonjo Iwealla and Jonathan;

“…Nigeria is mired in a long-term, secular depression. Forget the rosy GDPnumbers. They signify a great economic and financial segregation between thosewho have and others who have not. If we continue with the policy preferences ofthe current administration, the haves shall become the “have–mores” and the“have-nots” shall become the “have even less…. The vast majority of the claimedGDP growth has fallen into the laps of those already enjoying obvious luxury.The rest of the people are left to gaze at the enormity of the income andwealth chasm separating them from the cabal orchestrating the discordantpolitical economy. While a small group flourishes, the rest of the nationsubsidises their economic bounty. A tight confederacy rides an economicskyrocket while the bulk of the people languish in the swamp. For one group,the economy is effervescent. For the other, it is catatonic. Nigeria is onenation with two economies.”

It ismore than evident that the Buhari government which he has helped - twice - toinstall has not heeded his advice, so one is forced to wonder why he isoffering these opinions when even his own people (APC) couldn’t care less. TheBuhari government could claim to have benefited poor people through itstradermoni and school feeding program, which are marginally praiseworthy, butthe government has also continued along the lines of targeting GDP growth,doing nothing about inequality (under this government Nigeria became the most unequalcountry in the world - according to OXFAM), and of course, much earlier in thisadministration we saw increases in fuel price, devaluation of the Naira by halfand we have tanked on foreign and local debts. I could even bet thatelectricity bills have been increased surreptitiously by DISCOs by at least100%!  These policies are in direct opposition to the ideas of Bola Tinubuyet he has not spoken against their emergence.

Hear some more facts from BAT (2014):

“…thenation’s economic engineers should focus primarily on allocating value andopportunity to our under-utilised labour force and our idle, yet potentiallyproductive capital in a way that promotes wealth creation and expansion ofaggregate demand. It is this sustainment of aggregate demand that empowers thenation to rescue itself from the whirlpool of economic contraction… In the faceof recessionary headwinds, government should run countercyclical fiscal policyby using its Naira sovereignty to fund fiscal deficits. The deficit is not simplyfor the sake of running a deficit; the funds cannot be spent on nonproductivematters. It must be used to fuel infrastructural and other projects that notonly employ great numbers of people but enhance the overall productivity of theeconomy… Inflation is the major risk of running budget deficits to spur growth.We can contain inflation to acceptable levels by ensuring additional governmentexpenditures are for items that can be supplied domestically, particularlylabour. Naira paid to poor and working class people mostly circulates in thedomestic economy, spurring additional local commerce and production…This isbecause their consumption patterns do not approach the level of importexpenditures associated with their wealthier compatriots. Related to this, wemust decrease our level of superfluous imports.”

Veryfew commentators in our milieu speak on such hard facts as these. Tinubu is theonly one I know who has dared to broach the issue of Naira sovereignty. Most of the ‘revered’ economic intellectuals in this space would neverdare.  Their brains are probably Americanized to the Dollar.  Let meexplain. For some reason, our yearly national budgets is based on the price ofcrude oil and how much dollars we intend to get therefrom. The only revenueassumption on our yearly budget is crude oil. This means our thinking isexternalized. Those who run our governments feel helpless and dependent onforeigners to solve our problems.  But sovereign countries should neverdepend on the availability of other people’s currencies in order to plan theirlives. It should NEVER be said that Nigeria cannot pay the salaries ofgovernment workers just because there is no dollar to convert to Naira. Thestability of our economy should not be so tightly linked with the price ofcrude oil. Nobody has engaged Tinubu on this statement. They just behave likehe didn’t say it. I would want to hear opposing positions.  Theliberalists who hold our economy by the jugular have been trained never tothink of any other possibilities but that which is included in the texts thattheir masters dictate. We may not print the Naira into perpetuity, but wecannot be locked into a single option of ‘dollar-standard’, says Tinubu. And I agree.

The 2019 COLLOQUIUM

Thereason why I am writing to Tinubu again is borne out of his recent statementsat his yearly colloquium. Again Bola Tinubu came out blazing. I am notpatronizing the man. But in the desert of pro-people ideology that is Nigeria,and in a sea of regurgitated, regressive, and inhumane policies that we elevateto the level of mantra here, where those we have trusted with governance havecontinually betrayed us, I do have no apologies amplifying someone who soundsdifferent even if he was the devil incarnate. I am also trying to tie this withthe man’s influence among a number of highflying administrators that we cannotignore. No matter how much anyone hates Tinubu, perhaps we can ask them toconsider that even a dead clock is correct twice everyday. I think we shouldbegin to understand that no man is completely bad, or good.

SoTinubu addressed the issue of impending VAT increase and taxation in general.These are excerpts from his speech titled “Work for the people that thepeople may work for themselves” on the 28th of March, 2019:

"….Consumerspending is slipping and this is where I will stop and appeal to Professor YemiOsinbajo and his team to put a huge question mark on any increase of VATplease. If we reduce the purchasing power of the people, we can further slowdown the economy. Let's widen the tax net… Those who are not paying now, evenif it is inclusive of Bola Tinubu, let the net get bigger and take more taxesand that is what we must do in the country instead of additional layer intaxes… We must recognize these harsh economic tidings (a predicted one-comingglobal recession and financial crisis) as advance warnings to the wise. Hencewe must think deeper and work harder for our people in Nigeria… This dominanttrain of thought has made the people servants to the dictates of abstracteconomic theories. In a more effective system, the economy would be fashionedto serve the concrete needs and legitimate aspirations of the people… Oureconomy must be redefined to be an efficient yet moral social construct withthe primary goal of optimizing the long-term welfare of the people through thesustained, productive and full employment of labour, land, capital and naturalresources… To pull the nation from poverty, government must play a decisiverole. It must at times direct and even develop markets and opportunities. Thisis nothing novel. I am only restating what the established economies did whenthey were young and assumed their trajectories toward growth… Our pursuit ofthe Next Level cannot be achieved by blindly following the (current) economicpath (position) of other nations. That would be tantamount to racing to live ina building just as its long-term occupants were frantically rushing out,screaming that the edifice was mean and crumbling.   If we are smart,we dare not enter”.

WhereasI now believe that Nigeria’s VAT rate is unnecessarily low and that indeed,given the inability of the present day government to move decisively andfundamentally rethink our finance, we have little choice but to increase VAT, Icommend Tinubu’s steadfastness in pushing pro-people ideas at the centre. Intruth, an increase in VAT will certainly lead to price rise across the board inNigeria. Nigeria suffers the risk of inflation from four quarters presently; fromtax increases which will be passed on to final consumers, from marginaldecreases in interest rates, from increases in tariffs in electricity and otherutilities, from impending wage increases, and even from a likely currencydevaluation as we are being pushed in that direction by the likes of the IMFand World Bank.  With a weak balance sheet riddled with debts at almost70% of our revenue, we really have little say in the matter, and further Nairadevaluation could come much earlier than expected.

Thereare other critical nuggets in this simple statement above.

Tinubusaid government should widen the tax net to include people like him. He hassimply confessed to not paying his due taxes. Can the people in government,including his man Mr Fowler, take a cue, do the needful and legitimatelyapproach our many billionaires for our dues? What more are they waiting for?Until they are brave enough to do something about income inequality, in a waythat spurs productivity among the majority, we shall only be moving around incircles.  Labour productivity is the key. Human resources is ourundisputed most-important resource. Osinbajo and Buhari unfortunately seemstuck with the infrastructure approach without being able to link theinfrastructure (much needed) with the needed emergency in our human capitalarea. For example, the Minister for Power is building 9 power plants for 9universities in Nigeria so that they may have uninterrupted power supply, butnone of the students or their lecturers are involved in the projects. Sonothing learnt.

Iwould want Bola Tinubu to do us all a big favor and move away from thesetaunting, tantalizing and brain-wracking sweet statements to sitting on thegovernments he helped put in place to ensure the prevailing thinking changesand they do the needful. In the meantime, I can only say; RESPECT. And thanksJagaban. We need more of these.

For the Records - Investing in People: Jobs and the Economy

BolaTinubu Colloquium and Productive National Discourse

Investing in People: A More Accurate Perspective - By Bola Tinubu

It is indeed a high moment when the President alters his schedule toparticipate in this event. I am humbled and honored by your presence today, Mr.President.

Maythe collective dream of progressive governance and positive reform in Nigerianever fade and always be the vision that guides us.

Despitethe hurdles and difficulties that come, let this noble effort become ournational reality for the sake of those amongst us most in need, for the sake ofthe present generation and for the sake of generations yet to come.

I wishto also thank your Vice President whose dedication and ability so well serveyou and your administration. Without him and his team of organizers, this eventwould not have been possible.

Ithank Governor Ambode for hosting us so graciously for the true character ofLagos is generosity of spirit as well as the spirit of excellence.

Mygreetings to everyone in this hall and outside of it as well.

I begthat you forgive my abruptness with usual protocol. I do so not to slightanyone. If you must blame anything for my abruptness, please direct your blameat the advancing hour (of the day).

Thespeakers have been thoughtful and inspiring. There is not much I can add; butthe nature of the day compels that I offer some thoughts regarding the subjectat hand.

Ishall labor to meet this obligation in as short a time as possible.

Thetopic “Investing in People” is timely, given both the current arc of ournational political and economic evolution and given the recent discussion ofthis topic generated by a famous philanthropist who recently visited ourshores.

How weinvest today determines the quality of our tomorrow. We start from therealization that our resources are as scarce and finite as they are valuable.

Thus,we dare not waste them for they are almost always inadequate and never insurplus when measured against all the beneficial things we desire to do for oursociety.

Inshort, waste is the mother of want and misuse the father of lack.

Mis-investmentcomes with steep opportunity costs. The misapplication of one naira means onenaira less for a more appropriate investment. In a way, this represents adouble loss.

Here Ishall depart from the mainstream approach that draws a line between capitalinvestment and what many people now call human capital investment.

We nowspeak of the two as if they were conflicting opposites, inherently at odds witheach other.

Thisis not a wise road to travel. Instead, we must think of them as points alongthe same continuum. Instead of being opposites, they are in fact similar andcomplementary, the one to the other.

Humancapital investment connotes expenditures that improve the inner capacity orwellbeing of a person or populace. Things such as education and health carecome quickly to mind.

Traditionalcapital investment connotes expenditure on instrumentalities external to aperson that improves his ability to further improve his productivity orlifestyle. These are things like roads and power.

Inbetween, lie things like potable water which has clear human capital as well astraditional capital investment dividends.

In mymind, both forms of investment are related; both ultimately benefit the people.No right-minded government builds a road but forbids travelers its usage.Better roads lessen accidents, reduce travel time and cut costs of business andgoods.

Electricpower is not generated merely for its own sake but so people can work moreefficiently and live in greater comfort.

Itallows students to read into the night, learning more and learning better; itpermits hospitals to utilize equipment and procedures that can save thousandsof lives otherwise lost.

Itallow factories to hum 24-hours a day, producing jobs and goods that increasethe wealth and welfare of a people.

Thus,investing in roads is more an investment in the people who use them than aninvestment in the gravel and tar that comprise the paved way.

Investmentin power is at its essence more an investment in the people who will rely on itto improve their activities and efforts than it is merely an investment inturbines and other physical equipment.

Thisis like the chicken and egg question. When asked which one comes first, theonly reasonable response is to say that “the one produces the other.”

Thus,our task is not to draw an artificial boundary between the two types ofinvestment.

Ourtask must be to re-integrate these two components into a coherent plan wherefinite resources are allocated in ways that respond to present urgencies yetalso answer the burning question of how to best achieve durable economic growthfor all segments of society.

Itwould be the height of cruelty to tell a man dying of thirst that he must waituntil we build him a perfect well before we can give him all the water he willever want.

Heneeds but a cup to drink. But he needs it here and now. Waiting is not a viableoption. Thus, we must hurry the cup unto him.

Onlyonce that is done, do we work on constructing a well so that he may never againfall prey to such a danger.

It isat this point that we must draw a different conceptual distinction than the onenormally drawn between physical capital and human capital investment.

Iposit that we profit more by drawing a conceptual distinction between the typeof social investment that helps us manage or mitigate poverty as compared tothat investment which leads to economic growth that reduces if not eliminatespoverty at its very root.

Povertymitigating investment may soften the harshest blows of penury but suchinvestment offers no great escape from it.

Forexample, every human being has a right to health care. Giving such care is amoral duty of any compassionate government. Yet, however healthy that personmay become as a result, this does not mean his economic situation willnecessarily improve because of better health.

Thesame goes for education. We already have many intelligent graduates whoseabilities did not meet a job because there simply were no jobs to meet.

Overthe decades, we have built legions of people who are well educated but not forthis economy and this job market.

Wemust remember that education is not an abstraction. While education is a virtuein itself, it also must have practical utility or else it will become adiscredited, even detested thing.

A keypurpose of education is to provide a person the skills required to earn aliving within the context of a given economic environment. There is no pressingneed to teach a desert nomad to scuba dive or to instruct a fisherman in theDelta the intricacies of hunting a polar bear or riding a camel.

Educationmust be wedded to the economy that now exists as well as to the economy thatshall be in the foreseeable future.

Theable-bodied Africans who braved the harsh desert crossing of the Sahara only tofurther brave the death waters of the Mediterranean Sea do so not in search forbetter healthcare or even education for the most part.

Theydo so in search of meaningful work, the money, as well as the sense ofindependent existence and self-worth that such work can bring.

Thisis the compelling force.

Thus,any responsible government and society must heavily invest in those things thatpromise economic prosperity and employment. This is the primary challengegovernment must meet.

Whilegovernment cannot ignore investments that lessen the grimmest effects ofpoverty, we also must face the hard fact that a nation cannot truly defeatpoverty without generating broadly-shared economic growth through prudentinvestment in infrastructure, industrial development, and agriculturalmodernization.

Mylife has been dedicated to the proposition that Nigeria can grow and overcomepoverty, not just live with a less brutal version of poverty.

After66 years, I am not about to change my walk or change my talk at this point.

Thereis something we must examine more closely. The chorus of Western-appointedexperts sings that we must target certain levels of expenditure on variousprograms to reach sustainable growth.

Fewpeople dare question the veracity of this claim, the soundness of this song.However, the question of cause and effect casts a long shadow over the entireprocession.

Is ittrue that sustaining certain levels of expenditures will bring economicdevelopment?

Or isthe deeper, more fundamental truth that economic development will generateheightened levels of social expenditure?

Economichistory points to the latter explanation as the most viable road to durablenational improvement.

Wemust define our path to development correctly if we are to have any chance offollowing that path faithfully.

Yes,our society must invest sufficiently in lessening the most brutal aspects ofpoverty. We cannot allow people to be broken by poverty unattended.

However,the great escape from poverty comes not by making poverty more livable. Ourescape comes by burying poverty under an edifice of wealth creation andequitable distribution of said wealth.

Thisis only done by economic growth. This is how England, America and China did it.

Asthese nations represent the past, present and immediate future of economicgreatness, we should learn more from what they did for themselves than fromwhat they say we should do.

Here,I offer a few suggestions that may help blunt the effects of poverty whileensuring sustained growth to increase our national standard of living. We must:

1. Stimulate the economy by investment in new generation technology and its resultant infrastructure. This must be at the heart of our national infrastructure planning. 

2. Encourage private sector investment in labor intensive industries by reducing barriers to entry in these sectors and by helping such enterprises to be cost competitive. This must be the core of our national industrial plan. 

3. Continue massive investment in agricultural output and move to establish commodity boards and commodity exchanges so that farmers will be assured of a livable income. Farm mortgages should be more accessible to give farmers a pathway to credit to procure better equipment and inputs.

4. Help the elderly. We must continue to improve the pension system. This will reduce poverty among the elderly while generating additional economic activity through enhanced consumer demand. Moreover, this is the moral thing to do. 

5. Reform the mortgage system to facilitate credit expansion in a manner that allows the real estate sector to become a key driver of overall economic growth and that opens the door to affordable housing throughout the land. 

6. Extend school feeding programs into all states. 

7. Promote judicial reform to insulate jurists and the legal system from corruption. Providing attractive salaries and allowances will make jurists less susceptible to the corrupt temptations and illicit requests that distort the cause of justice.

8. Create a blue ribbon panel that identify ways to eliminate all forms of wrongful discrimination in our land. Every Nigerian must be seen as a full and complete Nigerian in whatever part of the nation he may go, no matter what part of the nation from which he came.

Ourtask is to define ourselves. That means we must think for ourselves.

We area populous, richly endowed nation. The growth of neighboring countries dependson ours. We hold a responsibility greater than ourselves.

Wemust act with care. Prudence suggests that we learn our most profound lessonsfrom those nations that have already climbed the highest rungs of the globaleconomic ladder.

Assuch, this requires that we reject the artificial difference between humancapital and normal capital investment.

Allinvestment, if used constructively, benefits the people and thus can be calledhuman capital investment.

Assuch, the term human capital investment really tells us nothing of value whenit comes to defining the correct path to optimal growth.

Toforge that path, we must strike the correct balance between investment thatmitigates or temporarily relieves the worst of poverty and that type ofinvestment that sparks long-term economic growth that will divorce the poorfrom poverty.

Forour goal is not to endure a less biting poverty. Our goal is to enter into anera of robust prosperity.

This,my friends, my brothers and sisters, my compatriots is the only way I know forour nation to invest in its people so that they may become what God intendedthem to be.

Beingwritten speech delivered by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu at the 10th Bola Ahmed TinubuColloquium in Lagos on March 29, 2018.

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About the Author

Tope Kolade Fasua is a Nigerian businessman, economist and writer. He isthe founder and CEO of Global Analytics Consulting Limited, an internationalconsulting firm with its headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria. He was the 2019presidential candidate of the Abundant Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP), which hefounded. He can be contacted via e-mail at [email protected]

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