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What to Expect from the Markets this Week - 261222

Dec 24, 2022   •   by Proshare Research   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 571 views

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 231222


Nigeria Economy

 

Budget Deficit Rises Further with N819.5bn Supplementation to the 2022 Budget 

President Muhammadu Buhari is seeking a supplementation of N819.5bn for the 2022 budget. The request which was contained in a letter addressed to Senate President Ahmad Lawan stated that the proposal is meant to address the damage caused by the nationwide flash flood which affected several states. The Budget which is expected to be financed by additional domestic borrowings is the second supplementary budget for the year. Earlier in the year, the President had approached the senate for a N2.56trn supplementation to fund petrol subsidy payments. Analysts believe that while supplementary budgets can and should be used to address disasters, they must be carefully deployed as they also can be a problem for fiscal management since they tend to widen budget deficits. Nigeria’s budget deficit which stood at N5.33trn (8M 2022), is already higher than the threshold stipulated by the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007.  Actual deficits have risen steadily from N3.67trn in 2018 to N5.33trn as of 8M 2022. 

 

FG backtracks on Ad Valorem Tax in Draft Finance Bill 2022

The Minister of Finance yesterday disclosed that the Finance Bill 2022 draft does not plan to levy an additional 20% Ad Valorem Tax (AVT) on manufacturers of carbonated soft drinks.  Stakeholders in the Manufacturing sector had expressed concerns about the impact of an additional 20% tax on companies’ bottom lines. Proshare had argued in an article titled: Nigerian Soft Drink Makers Under Pressure as FGN Contemplates a 20% Ad Valorem Tax that the Federal Government need not scuttle the businesses of soft-drink manufacturers in a bid to raise revenue. 

 

The Finance Bill 2022, which is currently undergoing legislative consideration, seeks to amend the Capital Gains Tax Act (CGTA), the Companies Income Tax Act (CITA), and seven other existing Acts. The new Finance bill specifically stipulates those gains on digital assets, including cryptocurrency, would be specifically chargeable to tax under the capital gains tax act at the rate of 10%. The Bill also proposes an amendment to the sharing formula for revenue from Electronic Money Transfer from the current 15% for FG and 85% for States to 15% for FG, 50% for States, and 35% for LGs. The Bill, which is expected to be passed along with the 2023 Appropriation bill before year-end, indicates a commencement date of January 1, 2022.

 

CBN Raises Cash Withdrawal Limits to N500,000, N5m

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), yesterday, revised the cash withdrawal limit policy, which was released earlier in December. According to the new circular, the weekly cash withdrawal limit for individuals has been increased from N100,000 to N500,000 while a N5m limit now applies to business accounts as against the N500,000 weekly limit applied previously. While the same limit applies to ATMs and POSs across the country, the processing fees payable Over the Counter would not apply to them. Also, in the new circular, the CBN reduced the cash withdrawal processing from 5% to 3% for individuals (and from 10% to 5% for corporations). Stakeholders, especially businesses that rely on private accounts and whose businesses would have been adversely affected by the lack of cash, have commended the decision of the CBN.

 

 While the overarching objective of promoting the adoption of Internet banking, mobile banking apps, USSD, cards/Pos, and eNaira are appreciated, Analysts have expressed concerns about the recent spike in the number of failed electronic transactions. If businesses have to part with cash withdrawal processing fees every time, they have urgent cash needs and payment platforms buckle, their bottom lines would be severely affected. Accessing the possible potency of the policy to address vote buying, Analysts say that the new policy may not do much to prevent vote buying because, with nine weeks to the election, unscrupulous party politicians may still make withdrawals of the newly redesigned notes within the weekly cash withdrawal limits for the purpose of inducing voters.

 

Lagos Unveils First Phase of Rail Mass Transit

Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu launched the first phase of the Blue Rail train project on Wednesday in Lagos. The Governor stated that the phase of the line which runs from Mile 2 to Marina will be operational in January and would move no less than 250,000 passengers daily.  When the entire mono-rail line is extended from Mile 2 to Okokomaiko, as many as 500,000 passengers would be served daily. Analysts say that the project would reduce the traffic situation along that axis, while the cost of road maintenance would decline accordingly.  As expected, home rent in the surrounding communities would increase reflecting the improved place value associated with the new project. Analysts say that the choice of a concession arrangement under which Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA) carries out regulatory oversight and an appointed concessionaire would manage and maintain the rail line and coaches, makes for operational effectiveness and project profitability. Moreso, the project was funded by an N87.5bn bond raised in 2013, an N137.3bn bond raised in 2021, and another N110bn obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria under its Real Sector Support Facility (RSSF). 

 

Aviation Sector Stumbles into Crisis, as AON Warns of Flight Cancellations

Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) has warned that the scarcity of aviation fuel would result in flight delays and cancellations. Back in May and July, FX and Jet A1 fuel scarcity disrupted airlines' operations. Analysts say that the recent development is also expected to lead to a rise in Air transport fares. Analysts say that the incessant challenge of fuel scarcity threatens growth in the aviation sector as travellers have little or no alternatives. The Nigeria Railway Corporation (NRC) had halted service on the Abuja-Kaduna rail lines for eight months following the terrorist attack on March 28, which left some passengers on board killed and others kidnapped.  While some travellers may still travel by air, Analysts expect a pullback in air travels with a discounting effect on the sectoral growth

 

Review of Tax Waivers to Improve FG’s Revenue in 2023

In its bid to support the budgeted revenue for the 2023 budget, the Federal Government (FG), through the Finance Bill, would reclassify some businesses that had hitherto claimed tax waiver benefits under the Pioneer Status Initiative in the past. The pioneer status was an incentive offered by the Federal Government, which exempts companies from paying income tax for a certain period.

 

 According to the Minister of Finance, such companies now categorized as matured industries include Dangote Coal Mines Limited, Seven/Up Bottling Company Limited, and Mikano International Limited. Analysts say that the decision of the Federal Government to rationalize and reassign Tax waivers is commendable. Along with the regressive subsidy regime, Tax waivers deprived the FG of up to N10trn while revenue underperformed by as much as 36% as of August. According to Analysts, Tax waivers are useful for promoting domestic production and protecting infant industries. However, the fiscal drag and high debt cost the FG faces require some austerity measures.

 

Global Economy

 

Accommodative Monetary Policy Action in China

The Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) on Thursday decided to cut the benchmark rates again on Thursday in a bid to address the economic slowdown in the world’s largest economy. With inflation at 2.1% (as of October), the PBoC decided to reduce the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10basis points from 3.8% to 3.7% while the 5-year LPR was lowered from 4.65% to 4.6%. Analysts say that while the cut in 5-year LPR is targeted at making homes more affordable, the impact of the 5bp cut could turn out to be quite limited and may not have material impact. 

 

US grows by 3.2% in Q3 2022 Amid Recession Fears 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the US Q3 2022 GDP growth to 3.2% up from 2.9% suggesting a stronger recovery from the technical recession it fell into after re Q2 2022. The recovery reflects improvements in exports and consumer spending to counterbalance the decline in the housing market which has been hard hit by higher interest rates. Economists have however maintained recession fears because as households dip into their savings, predicting a slower growth path and a potential recession in the future. The Job market also seemed to remain strong despite waves of growing layoffs, as Labour Department reports new jobless claims ticked up 2000 to 222,000 last week. 

 

Ghana’s GDP Growth Slows to 2.9%

Ghana's economy grew 2.9% year-on-year in Q3 2022. Compared to the 4.8% growth recorded in Q2, the new data would suggest a slow-down in the country’s pace of growth. Economic growth in Ghana has continued to drop since the recovery post-pandemic. Ghana has grappled with runaway inflation (which hit 50.3% in November), due the depreciation of the local currency and spiraling debt. The Ghanaian government reached a $3-billion staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week. Analysts believe inflation should begin to drop in the gold coast as improved foreign reserves and decision to halt foreign debt repayments have supported the cedes to a rally in one week. Meanwhile, growth is projected to remain slow until household resume spending and the government dials back its austerity measures. 

 

Oil and Gas 

Scarcity Lingers as Petrol Price Increases Despite Subsidy

Despite regulating petrol price at N165 per litre, the national average price of petrol (also called Premium Motor Spirit, PMS) increased by 29.81% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to N202.48 per litre. The marketers' associations have attributed domestic fuel scarcity and rising petrol prices to forex scarcity, multiple dollar charges, and bad roads. Nevertheless, resolving these issues will not provide a long-term solution until the subsidy is removed. Analysts strongly oppose the continuous petrol subsidy regime, arguing that subsidies have promoted corruption, arbitrary pricing, and wider distribution challenges. Stakeholders believe government officials benefiting from false sales claims have kept the programme in place. Analysts say that with sustained subsidy, petrol prices will remain unstable, and Nigerians will groan under rising costs. Aside from the increase in the average retail petrol price, the NBS petroleum products price watch for November 2022 also shows that other petroleum products increased in the 12 months to November 2022 and on a month-on-month basis.

 

Stakeholders Heighten Call for Subsidy Removal

Amidst the collaborative efforts to end fuel scarcity and its indiscriminate pricing, analysts have heightened the call for the FG to end the ballooning petrol subsidy. Last week, NNPC Ltd and the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) confirmed the lifting of petrol at N148 per litre from fuel depots to maintain the pump price at N165-169 per litre. At the same time, the House of Representatives called on stakeholders to resolve the lingering scarcity. Unfortunately, scarcity has persisted. Analysts attributed this to human factors and reignited the call to end the petrol subsidy, draining the country's revenue and failing to achieve its purpose. Analysts believe nothing is accurate and predictable about the subsidy regime. There is no precise data on subsidy figures, daily consumed volume, or available volume of petrol for distribution. With the subsidy figure for 2022 expected at about N5trn, analysts call for an immediate end to the fuel subsidy to avert the looming fiscal crisis in 2023.

 

Aged Nigerian Infrastructure Will Constrain Full-Capacity Oil Production

The Federal Government projects crude oil production at a full capacity of 3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in the near term, higher than analysts' expectation of 1.5mb/d. The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, disclosed that the FG is working to ensure that all local and major oil companies return to full production capacity to boost revenue and meet the OPEC quota. Analysts consider the projection overly optimistic. Aside from the possibility of relaxing the initial campaign against oil theft, analysts decry the country's ageing oil infrastructure as a condition that would undermine production at full capacity. Howbeit, with the slight improvement in the security situation, analysts expect production to improve further from 1.186mb/d in November to about 1.23mb/d in December.

 

Cheap Penalties Promote Sustained Gas Flaring

Nigerian Gas Flare Tracker of the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has revealed that Nigeria flared 195.7 billion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas from January to November 2022. The reported flared gas, valued at US$685m, defiled the country's gas monetization programme and the global emissions reduction targets. Proshare analysts have argued that the fines on gas flaring are too cheap to deter flaring. Increasing the penalties on gas flaring will incentivize operators to rather make investments to harness the gas than flaring. Although some analysts believe high fines could result in more divestment by the international oil companies (IOCs), Proshare analysts believe gas flaring had persisted due to the lack of deterring regulations and the lack of government commitment to monetize gas in the country. The current official penalties for gas flaring stand at $2 per 1,000scf for companies producing over 10,000b/d and $0.5 per 1,000scf for companies producing less than 10,000b/d.

 

Petrol Scarcity and Price Differential will Continue into the Festive Holiday

Despite the planned agreement between the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) and NNPC Ltd to peg the ex-depot petrol price at N148 per litre, analysts are convinced the scarcity will linger into the festive holiday. The reason is the distorted petrol supply flow process. These distortions include the NNPC Ltd monopoly and resource constraints, logistical challenges of bad roads and aged pipelines, preferential FX and petrol subsidies to NNPC Ltd, and the politicizing of PIA implementation. With domestic refining from Dangote and Port Harcourt Refineries expected in Q2 2023, analysts suggested a phased deregulation of domestic retail premium motor spirit (PMS) pricing. A one-shot subsidy removal may be too severe, but a gradual rollback would soften the impact. Analysts share the opinion of the Presidential Candidate of the All-Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, who insisted on removing petrol subsidies regardless of any opposition if elected President.

 

Oil Prices Maintain Gains on Demand Rebound

Oil prices gained for a second straight week on the prospect of demand recovery, an expected drop in Russian crude oil supply, and a softer dollar. Demand recovery is led by China's loosening of COVID-19 curbs, the US decision to buy back oil for its reserves, US larger-than-expected inventory draws, and the prospect of increased demand for heating oil on looming Artic storm in the US. Howbeit, the gains were moderated by global recession fears, an upsurge in Covid cases in China, and worries of slow transport fuel demand in the US due to the Winter Storm. Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated into the festive holiday on resilient oil demand despite the wintry storms.

 

Commodities

Brent had a weekly growth of 5.37% (see Table 1).

 

Metals

Gold advanced by 0.03% and Silver advanced by 2.19% W-o-W (see Table 1).

 

Agriculture

Cocoa prices advanced by 6.37% W-o-W

Corn prices advanced by 1.76% W-o-W and Sugar prices grew by 4.14% (see Table 1 below).

 

Table 1: Commodity Prices

Commodity

23-Dec-22

16-Dec-22

31-Dec-21

Weekly Chg

YTD Chg

Brent

83

78.77

78.54

5.37%

5.68%

Gold

1800.7

1800.2

1827.1

0.03%

-1.44%

Silver

23.79

23.28

23.27

2.19%

2.23%

Cocoa

2640

2482

2546

6.37%

3.69%

Corn

665

653.5

595.5

1.76%

11.67%

Sugar

20.9

20.07

18.83

4.14%

10.99%

Source: CNBC, Proshare Research

 

 

 

 *Data for the 23rd of December 2022 is as of 04: 09 pm (Nigerian Time)

 

Agriculture

 

Analyst Dissect Nigeria's Competitive Advantage in Yam Export

The Federal Government of Nigeria has raised concern about the inability of the country to dominate the US$200m yam export market. Nigeria ranks as the highest producer of yam in the world, accounting for over 67% of total yam production worldwide but did not rank high in the export of this commodity. The second-highest yam producer, Ghana, recently announced becoming the highest exporter of the commodity despite producing about 10% of total global production. Ghana had maintained the rank as the second-highest exporter for about a decade accounting for over 90% of annual export contribution in West Africa, generating US$39.7m from the export of the commodity in 2021.

Analysts believe that Nigeria could have a comparative advantage in the export of yam tubers if the country can invest in export value chains for yam tubers, a move Ghana undertook recently to further increase the export of yam to the international market.

 

New Zealand Farmers Kick Against Cow Burp Tax

New Zealand is set to be the first country to tax farmers on emissions from livestock burps. This has caused an uproar from farmers in the country who claim this move would affect both the citizens and the country, with a claim that the citizens might bear the passed-on cost of livestock when they purchase meat. In contrast, the country would not have taken advantage of the increased export of meat globally. This forced the government into several changes, including allowing farmers to use on-farm forestry to offset their carbon emissions. However, the change did not stop the tax, with the government promising to keep emission prices as low as possible.

 

Economist Call for Demand Side Review of Wheat Importation

The price of durum wheat in Nigeria had increased by 50% since the start of the year when it traded between N27,000 to N28,000. It now trades between N41,000 to N42,000 at the end of Q3 2022. Since reaching a high of US$1,200/ bushel during the height of the war in Ukraine, its price internationally has dropped, but this has not been reflected in the price of wheat and wheat-based products in the country. Several traders have attributed this to the F.X. issue as the CBN doesn't give F.X. for wheat importation, making it expensive to import wheat.

 

Analysts note that solving some of our import issues should not only be looked at from the supply side as we've been doing for a long time, which has made us focus on increasing wheat production for a while to attain self-sufficiency. Wheat is an imported taste which has become a staple in the country, ranking third in highest imports by value behind refined petrol products and gas. Taking into account, the demand side would imply that citizens could need to shift tastes back to what the country can produce and reduce the pressure on the high importation of agricultural products

 

Fixed Income Market 

 

Currency Market

Naira depreciated by -1.05% this week at the NAFEX fixing, settling at N453.30/US$1 on Thursday. At the Investor and Exporter FX fixing (I&E), the naira closed at N456.50, a weekly loss of -1.11% (see table 2 below). 

 

Table 2: Naira/Dollar at the I&E FX Window and NAFEX Market

Average Benchmark Yields

 

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

% Change

I&E FX

451.50

456.50

 -1.11%

 

15-Dec-22

22-Dec-22

 

NAFEX ($/N)

449.40

 453.3

  -1.05

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

Money Market

The inflow of old notes in exchange for the redesigned notes eased liquidity this week, pulling down the interbank rates. However, on Friday, the Open Repo rate (OPR) and Overnight rate (O/N) rose to 12% and 12.75%, by +24.61% and +20.62% weekly (see table 3 below).

 

Table 3: Money Market

Money Market Rate

 

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

% Change

OPR (%)

9.63

12.00

     +24.61%

O/N (%)

10.57

12.75

     +20.62%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

Interbank Rates should stay elevated next week

 

Treasury Bills Market

Retaining the bullish sentiment all through the week, the average benchmark yield dropped to 5.34%, a weekly fall of -35.19%

This week, the OMO bill’s average benchmark yield dropped to 4.74% by -55.82% week-on-week (See table 4 below). 

 

Table 4: Treasury Bills Market

Average Benchmark Yields

 

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

% Change

T. Bills (%)

8.24

5.34

  -35.19%

OMO Bills (%)

10.73

4.74

  -55.82%  

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

 

The cherry-picking should continue in the coming week 

 

FGN Raises N2.75trn from Bond Market in 2022

In 2022, the debt management office (DMO) raised N2.75trn in the bond market to finance the 2022 budget deficit. The amount received is 11.14% higher than the N2.48trn offered. On a monthly basis, the DMO offered N150bn each from January to March but was increased to N225bn in April due to the non-issuance of Eurobond as yields spiked. The inflation shocks increased investors' participation in the bond market, with fixed-income assets seen as safe havens and N4.65trn oversubscribed issuances. Across the months, May had the highest subscription and allotment of N575.63bn and N345.26bn, while October had the least at N119.18bn and 107.88bn, respectively. Analysts expect bond issuances to rise in 2023 as the N10.78trn 2023 budget deficit will be financed through domestic borrowings 

 

Ghana’s External Debt Payment Suspension May Lead to Default 

The Ghanaian Government announced the suspension of debt payments on some external debts on Monday. The suspension will be on Eurobonds, commercial term loans, and some specific bilateral debts, excluding new multilateral debts, contracted after December 19, 2022, and debt related to certain short-term trade facilities. According to the statement, the suspension is an interim emergency measure pending future agreements with all relevant creditors. Earlier this month, the country restructured the domestic debts, where the existing securities were exchanged for new securities that will offer a zero coupon in the first year, 5% in the second, and 10% in the third year as she seeks to acquire a US$3bn relief from IMF. 

 

The country reached a staff-level agreement with IMF on December 13 or a $3bn bailout package to tackle its economic difficulties. The suspension will prompt a restructuring that will rob investors of some of their returns as the country will offer lower coupons on restructured debt. However, the suspension will affect the country’s future issuance in the international market, as extremely high coupons will be needed to lure investors.

 

Bearish Subscription at December Savings Bond Issuance

To wrap up the year, the December saving bond had a lower subscription than the previous month, recording an allotment of N297.81m and N908.65m for the 2-year and 3-year tenors as against N414.795m and N1,325.54m in November. The coupon rate settled at 12.255% and 13.255%, lower than 12.492% and 13.492% in November. Analysts believe the slight decline in coupon rates spurred the lower subscription and allotments, although the rising inflation has been a disadvantage to investors' interest considering the negative return. 

 

Under Subscription Awaits FG’s Issuances Meant to Fund Supplementary Budget  

The N819.54bn supplementary budget if approved by the National House of Assembly, could imply even more Federal Government (FG) bond issuances in 2023. However, with domestic borrowing rising to N26.92trn as of September 30, 2022, the new bond issuances record relatively low subscription as investors might worry about higher inherent risks associated with debt sustainability. Analysts also say that rising inflation will make investors bid for higher coupon rates on issuances, leading to higher borrowing costs on the part of the government.

 

Equity Market

NGX – Listed Equities

  • The Nigerian bourse ended the week on a positive note as market sentiment turned positive.  The NGXASI closed the week with a gain of 0.79% as against a 0.89% gain recorded last week. The Nigerian Exchange recorded N212.07bn gain in naira terms. 

 

  • Year-to-date, the NGXASI maintained its positive position to close the week with a gain of +16.36% as market capitalization settled at N27.073trn.
  • Sectoral performance across sectors was broadly positive WoW. At the close of trading on Friday, sixteen (16) sectors closed positive WoW while one (1) sector closed flat WoW. NGX AFRBVI topped the gainer’s chart with a gain of +4.64% WoW while no sector index closed negative (see chart 1 below).
  •  

Chart 1: Movement of NGXASI Index Points 1ST DEC. 2022 – 23rd DEC. 2022

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

NASD OTC Exchange - Unlisted Equities

The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week on a negative note.  The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 704.00 points and 925.06 with a decrease of -0.61% respectively (see table 5 below).

 

 

Table 5: NASD W-o-W Change

Parameter

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

WoW Chg

USI

                                 708.32 

                               704.00 

-0.61%

MKT Capitalization (Bn)

                                930.74 

                                 925.06 

-0.61%

Volume Traded

                   5,077,850.00 

               35,000,000.00 

589.27%

Value Traded (000)

                     9,170,319.00 

             138,000,000.00 

1404.85%

Deals Executed

                                     9.00 

                                      2.00 

-77.78%

 Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Gote And Toni Index

Gote Index closed the week negative at 136.03 index points from 136.66 index points recorded the previous week, representing a decrease of -0.46% W-o-W. NASCON closed the week positive with 6.22% W-o-W while DANCEM and DANGSUGER closed the week negative with -6.60% and  -4.32% W-o-W respectively (see table 6 below).

 

Table 6: Gote Index W-o-W Change

DANGOTE INDEX

COMPANY

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

% Chg

DANGCEM

262.30

245.00

-6.60%

DANGSUGAR

16.20

15.50

-4.32%

NASCON

10.45

11.10

6.22%

 Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Furthermore, the Toni Index closed positive at 113.70 index points from 111.47 index points recorded the previous week, representing an increase of 2.00% W-o-W. AFRIPRUD, UBCAP and UBA closed the week positive with 6.36%1.48% and 2.74% respectively while TRANSCORP and TRANSCOHOT closed the week flat W-o-W (see table 7 below).

 

Table 7: Toni Index W-o-W Change

TONI  INDEX

COMPANY

16-Dec-22

23-Dec-22

% Chg

AFRIPRUD

5.50

5.85

6.36%

TRANSCOHOT

6.25

6.25

0.00%

TRANSCORP

1.14

1.14

0.00%

UBA

7.30

7.50

2.74%

UBCAP

13.50

13.70

1.48%

 Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Contrary to analysts’ expectation, the equity market recorded a positive week-on-week performance, albeit at a slow rate.  Analysts expect a bearish market in the coming week as investors selloffs to remain liquid for the festive period and as trading activities slowed within the 2 days public holiday.


 

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