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What to Expect from the Markets this Week - 060223

Feb 04, 2023   •   by   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 627 views

Nigeria: Economic Dashboard @ 030223


Nigeria Economy

 

Nigeria’s Debt Position Triggers Moody’s Downgrade 

Moody’s has downgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency, local-currency issuer ratings, and also foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings to Caa1 from B3 and changed the outlook to stable. The new rating concludes the review for the downgrade initiated on 21 October 2022. The fiscal and debt position of the country triggered the downgrade, the country’s debt rose to N44.06trn as of September 2022 and is expected to rise to N77trn after the securitization of the CBN’s ways and means. The rating agency expects the debt position to further deteriorate with the large 2023 budget deficit and lack of access to external funding sources apart from depressed oil production and capital outflows. Currently, the default risk is low with the assumption there will be no sudden/ unexpected event such as a shift in policy direction that would raise the default risk. Analysts believe this makes the country unable to borrow in the international market as foreign investors will prefer to stay away or demand extremely high yields to mitigate risk. This suggests Nigeria can only raise funds through domestic borrowing, suggesting huge bond issuance in 2023. 

 

Moody’s Downgrades nine Nigerian Banks to a Junk

Following the downward review of Nigeria’s rating to Caa1 from B3, Moody’s agency has also downgraded nine Nigerian banks. The banks are Access bank plc, zenith bank plc, First bank of Nigeria Limited, UBA, GT Bank, union bank, fidelity, FCMB, and sterling bank. The international agency downgraded the long-term deposit ratings and senior unsecured debt ratings of the banks to Caa1 from B3. According to the agency, two factors triggered the downgrade, the weakening operating environment due to the macro profile of Nigeria and the exposure of the bank’s balance sheet to sovereign debt securities. Rated Nigerian banks have significant direct and indirect exposure to the Nigerian sovereign, 28% of their aggregate total assets are sovereign debt holdings as of June. Sadly, the downgrade makes it difficult for the above-listed banks to borrow from the international market as investors will demand high yields in compensation for the high risk. Also, banks with current Eurobond instruments such as Fidelity ($400m) might experience an outflow of investors which will raise their cost of borrowing and re-entry into the debt market.  Analysts expect a slight drop in the share price of the nine banks as the downgrade slightly waggles investors’ confidence. 

 

FIRS Revenue at N10trn in 2022 Dipped by 24% In Dollar Translation

Nigeria’s Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) stated that it collected N10.1trn in tax revenues in 2022, the highest tax collected in its history. While the Service seems to have broken its record, analysts say the revenue is not as impressive as it seems in dollar terms. In 2012, the FIRS raked in N5.01trn in tax revenue, translating to US$31.54m using the average exchange rate in the year. Ten years after, the Service collected a cumulative N10.1trn but down in dollar term to US$23.84m. FIRS revenue increased by 102% in naira between 2012 and 2022 but dipped by -24% within the same period in dollar-denominated value. Analysts say despite the overvalued nature of the country’s official exchange rate, tax revenue has lost its value. Aside from the loss in the value of the tax revenue, analysts had also raised concerns that the total revenue earned as of November 2022 was N6.5trn while FIRS reported tax revenue of N10.1trn, implying that close to half of the tax revenue collected by the FIRS was retained, a figure that is inefficient for a revenue collection agency (see chart 1 below).

 

CBN Extends Old Currency Swap Deadline

Nigeria’s money market regulator, the Central Bank (CBN) bowed to citizens’ pressure by extending the old currency exchange deadline by 10 days from January 31, 2023, to February 10, 2023, to allow for more collection of the old notes. Also, CBN granted a 7-day grace period beginning from February 10 to 17, 2023 in compliance with sections 20(3) and 22 of the CBN Act allowing Nigerians to deposit their old notes at the CBN after the February deadline when the old currency would have lost its legal tender status Although the 10 days extension gives Nigerians more time for currency swaps, however, the availability of the new notes has not yet been resolved. Reports show that most banks no longer fund their ATM and POS agent now charge higher fees for withdrawing new notes. Analysts believe the desired circulation of the new notes can only be achieved if banks make the notes easily accessible and organize mass sensitization in rural areas. In the absence of any improvement in distribution, the 10 days extension will not solve the problem. 

 

Nigerian Competitors Shake as Starlink’s High-Speed Internet Service Commences

Starlink, a satellite internet service provider by SpaceX, has recently arrived in Nigeria, and it is already shaking up the competition in the country, with its high-speed internet service, Starlink has challenged traditional cable and fiber internet service providers in Nigeria to re-evaluate their offerings. Starlink hardware and shipping comes at a cost of N276,000 (US$600). The monthly subscription is pegged at N19,780 (US$43) making it the most expensive internet service in the country. But many Nigerians, especially entrepreneurs, and businesses may be driven more by the speed than the high cost. Starlink says Nigeria is the first African country where the service is going live. The impressive speed of Starlink is not just a selling point for the company, but it also provides a significant competitive advantage. Analysts believe that the impressive speed and low latency offered by Starlink are a significant improvement over traditional internet service providers in Nigeria and the company's satellite-based technology provides fast and reliable internet access to remote areas where other providers may not have coverage.

 

Rates Hikes in Advanced Economies Met with Expectations

The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, announced a 25bps hike in interest rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%, marking the 8th consecutive increase by the Fed since March 2022. In December, Fed officials predicted interest rates to reach 5.1% this year, then to fall to 4.1% in 2024, and 3.1% in 2025 but economic data released since then has painted a mixed scenario. The FED’s decision to raise interest rates has been widely expected by economists and investors, as the decision came in line with market expectations. The US dollar has since strengthened as higher interest rates make US investments more attractive to foreign investors.

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of England also raised the UK interest rates by a further half percentage point to 4% but with a clear signal that borrowing cost may now be nearing their peak. BoE is particularly faced with controlling rising prices and saving the economy from recession. In Europe, the ECB raised the interest rate on the main refinancing operations by 50bps to an unprecedented 3.0% in seven months in the hope that the higher borrowing costs will temper demand and prevent rapid price growth from getting entrenched. 


Oil and Gas

 

Fuel Scarcity may Ease in Days Ahead but Long-term Solutions Remain Illusive

Over the last 3 months, the availability and affordability of PMS (petrol) have become a nightmare for Nigerians despite the trillions of dollars spent on subsidies. Analysts named FX shortages and the inactions of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and major stakeholders in the industry as culprits in the disorientation of pricing and distribution of the fuel. Earlier in the week, the NNPCL engaged with oil marketers and security agencies to find ways of addressing the lingering fuel crisis in the country. 

 

The engagement concluded that there are no supply problems but distribution problems as well as promises that the queue will dissipate in less than 2 weeks through the collaborative efforts of all stakeholders in fuel logistics. While hoping that the collaborative efforts to ease the scarcity materializes and abide for a while, Analysts believe the industry will remain volatile without addressing the fundamental issues of monopoly and lack of domestic refining. Regulating prices without a monitoring framework leaves room for arbitrage. Analysts say the country should begin phased removal of fuel due to the rising cost implication on marketers’ margins. 

 

Petrol Scarcity Threatens General Election but INEC Remains Positive

The sensitivity of general elections in Nigeria requires that it is unaffected by logistical issues and handled by non-partisan personnel. Analysts have expressed concern that the lingering fuel scarcity could undermine the transportation of materials for the election. In line with that, the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, has said it would meet with officials of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to mitigate the effects of persistent fuel scarcity which could affect the distribution of electoral materials. Public Policy observers believe that securing the supply of fuel from the NNPCL would ease the scarcity concern. However, the INEC partnership with the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) may heighten concern around the affiliation of a candidate with the union. With 24 days into the election leaving no room for the review of the distribution mechanism, analysts say INEC needs to watch against partisan tendencies of its distribution channels.  

 

Regulators’ Actions and Inactions are Stoking Regulatory Uncertainty

In a recent circular, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) assured Nigerians that there is PMS (Petrol) sufficiency of over 1.6bn litres as of January 26, 2023, on the country’s land and marine. Analysts say the model of reporting available stock of petrol has not worked and would not work to easy scarcity as long as differential pricing persists and marketers lack access to fuel directly from the NNPC Ltd depots. The Authority attributed the current hitch to increased activities of cross-border smugglers and noted that ongoing rehabilitation of strategic roads ahead of the rainy season has necessitated the rerouting of trucks conveying petroleum products, thus increasing transit time and associated costs. Although the regulator said it has reinforced its monitoring team and put other measures in place, there is clear disorientation in pricing and operation of the industry. Analysts believe the regulator is neither active nor passive in resolving the current challenges and this is promoting regulatory uncertainties in the downstream oil industry. 

 

Stakeholders Frown at Nigeria’s Flaring of N9trn of Gas in 10 Years 

Nigeria’s inability to optimize its oil and gas production and revenue have led to some downgrades on investment rating scales, the latest being Moody’s rating downgrade, following the JP Morgan downgrade of Nigeria from the overweight emerging market sovereign recommendation in 2022. Analysts say without a clear oil and gas policy and a firm grip on the industry by the Minister of Petroleum Resources, industry challenges, including dwindling oil production and pricing differential, among others will worsen. 

 

Unlike Qatar which recorded a budget surplus in 2022 by taking advantage of its huge gas reserve and controlling expenditure, Nigeria recorded a large fiscal 2022 debt of N6.37trn as of November 2022. Qatar has about 896trn cubic feet of the gas reserve while Nigeria has about 206trn cubic feet of gas reserve in addition to over 37bn barrels of crude oil reserve. A recent report from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) shows that between January and November 2022, Nigeria flared an estimated 5.6bn standard cubic metres (scm) of gas valued at US$685m. Much more worrisome, the country flared 80bn scm of gas worth N9trn in the last decade. Analysts believe Nigeria’s fiscal woes and consumer squeeze is a reflection of the lack of deep thought and deliberateness in administrating Nigeria’s Oil and Gas industry. 

 

Nigeria Gas Flaring Commercialisation May Become a Viable Business Model

One of the biggest undoings of Nigeria is continuous gas flaring while the global gas market opportunity is open, the country needs revenue, and it sits on a huge gas reserve. While analysts have recommended an upward review of the gas flaring penalty to deter flaring, the recent move of the upstream regulator to commercialize gas flaring might be a viable alternative if it follows due process. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said it has shortlisted 139 firms for “Request for Proposal (RFP)” following about 300 applications during the “Statement of Qualification (SOQ)” phase for the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP). The programme is expected to see the company buy and trade the usually flared gas from 48 oil production sites in the country. Successful commercialization of flare gas has economic and environmental benefits to host communities, but analysts say the regulator should gazette gas-related regulations that would engender fiscal, legal, and regulatory clarity on gas flaring in line with the PIA 2021.  

 

Quick-Fix Refinery Repairs Might Undermine Nigeria’s Capacity Utilisation 

Quick-fix repair of Nigeria’s redundant refineries after about 15 years of last Turn Around Maintenance is like putting new wine in an old wineskin. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and Daewoo Engineering Construction Nigeria Limited signed a maintenance service contract for the quick-fix repairs of the Kaduna Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (KRPC). The Quick-Fix strategy to repair and re-stream the KRPC is expected to see it operate sustainably at a minimum capacity utilization of 60%. Although the country is desperately in need of domestic refining of petroleum products to ease its supply challenges, Analysts say a holistic overhaul of the refineries would increase its market value and ensure the sustainability of the refining capacities. Much more, only the full optimization of all the refineries in addition to the Dangote Refineries would increase revenue subject to subsidy removal, reduce FX demand, create jobs, and increase local resource utilization. 

 

Oil Prices Fall on Looming Economic Downturn as Global Interest Rates Go Up

Oil prices dropped for the week, extending last week’s losses, as signs of strong Russian exports ease supply concerns and further interest rate hikes in major economies stoke looming global slumps. However, strong U.S. jobs data, rising Middle East tension over a drone attack in Iran, hopes of higher Chinese demand, an OPEC+ decision to roll over an output cut, and a weaker dollar supported some buying interest in the week. Analysts maintained that oil prices would rebound in the coming week on prospects of more easing in China and uncertainties around Russian oil export. In the local market, analysts expect the queue for petrol to persist in some parts of the country with pricing irregularities on logistical issues around moving the fuel across the country.


Commodity

Brent had a weekly decline of -3.63(see Table 1 below).


Metals

Gold declined by -2.17% while Silver declined by -4.31% W-o-W (see Table 1 below).

 

Agriculture

Cocoa prices declined -2.70% W-o-W

Corn prices declined by -1.02% W-o-W and Sugar prices advanced by +1.72(see Table 1 below).


Table 1: Commodity Prices

Commodity

03-Feb-23

27-Jan-23

30-Dec-22

Weekly Chg

YTD Chg

Brent

83.51

86.66

83.24

-3.63%

0.32%

Gold

1887.5

1929.4

1824.2

-2.17%

3.47%

Silver

22.605

23.622

24.025

-4.31%

-5.91%

Cocoa

2556

2627

2581

-2.70%

-0.97%

Corn

676

683

679.5

-1.02%

-0.52%

Sugar

21.32

20.96

20.19

1.72%

5.60%

Source: CNBC, Proshare Research

*Data for the 03rd of February 2023 is as of 05: 03 pm (Nigerian Time)

 

Rising Transportation Costs Cut the Margins of Tomato Merchants

Tomato Merchants in Katsina have decried the rising cost of transporting tomatoes from Katsina to Abia state. As farmers complain about the rising cost of inputs like seeds, fertilizer, and pesticides, merchants complain about the rising cost of baskets, cover paper, transportation, and labour. They claimed to spend about N600,000 in the past year for transportation but now spend N2.2m to move the same set of 350 baskets to the south. The cost of Diesel has almost quadrupled moving up from about N288 in January 2022 to about N800 per litre, and the dangers associated with transporting to the southeast increased as gunmen have issued a sit-at-home order. These factors have made drivers demand an upfront payment of N1.5m to cover fuel and other expenses that could arise as a result of non-state actors while in transit.

 

Production Cost for EVs Under Threat as Countries Consider Taxing Nickel 

Following the decision by Indonesia to ban the export of nickel ore in 2022, The second-highest producer of the metal, the Philippines has also suggested imposing a 10% export tax on Nickel ore to encourage local processing rather than selling unprocessed ore. Indonesia claims to have benefitted from the export tax as it has helped increase the investment in mineral processing plants in the country, a move the Philippines aims to follow although the Philippines nickel association seems to kick against it saying it could force local producers to close shop. Nickel, a silvery-white, hard, malleable, and ductile metal is a good conductor of heat and electricity, is slightly radioactive, and exposure could cause cancer in humans. However, its uses range from the production of coins to making wires and is a critical ingredient in the production of lithium-ion batteries. At a time when Electric Vehicle (EV) makers are offering discounts on EVs to increase patronage of EVs, this development could serve as a deterrent to low pricing as these bans could put pressure on the supply of Nickel globally.

 

Metals See Price Hikes as Dollar Goes Soft

Metals have begun swinging back up as the US Federal Reserve (the ‘fed’) said it had tempered its fight against inflation. Copper prices rose on the back of a weakened dollar. Gold price equally climbed reaching US$1,972 per troy ounce as downward US Data and hopes of stimulus from China encouraged investors to choose solid metal asset classes alongside equities and US Treasury Bonds.

    

Fixed Income 

Currency Market

Despite the scarcity of naira, the currency depreciated at the Investor and Exporter FX fixing (I&E) week-on-week, settling at N462/US$.  

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange fixing (NAFEX) fixing, the naira remained unchanged at N461.42/US$(See table 2 below). 


Table 2: Naira/Dollar at the I&E FX Window and NAFEX Market

Average Benchmark Yields

 

27-Jan-23

03-Feb-23

W-o-W% Change

I&E FX

461.75

462.00

  0.05%

NAFEX ($/N)

461.42

461.42

  0.00% 

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research


Nigerians Can Remit Old Notes to CBN After February Deadline 

At the HOC committee meeting with the House of Representatives yesterday, the CBN governor gave clarity about the status of the old notes after the deadline date (February 10). In line with the provision of section 20 (3) of the CBN Act, Nigerians can still redeem the face value of the naira but only at the Central Bank. He stated that the collection of old notes after the deadline is subject to certain conditions which were not disclosed. The duration for the acceptance of the old notes after the expiration was not specified but the old notes seize to be a legal tender after February 10 and can no longer be used for any form of transactions afterward. Analysts acknowledge that the adjustment will help Nigerians from losing the value of the old notes but does not address the challenge of new notes availability. The scarcity of the new notes has generated a naira black market, where agents now charge a minimum of 10% and above on every withdrawal. The large volume of unbanked population in the country will continue to put pressure on the demand for cash which might further encourage the black market. 

 

Nigeria Creates a Confusing Black Market for Local Currency, as CBN’s Policy Wreaks Havoc 

The incessant naira shortage has sprung up a black market, where the new notes are being sold at a premium. The non-dispensing ATMs and the limited over-the-counter withdrawal have left Nigerians hunting for cash at any cost, some arbitrators have taken advantage of the situation and are comfortably charging above 10% on every withdrawal. The congestion for online banking has slowed down the effectiveness of mobile apps with many people complaining about failed transactions and rather opting for cash. The huge demand for new notes has given POS agents the power to influence the fees on withdrawals with low naira circulation. Transitioning to a cashless policy seems extremely difficult for Nigerians, but analysts expect the tension to ease soon. However, the scarcity of cash gives room for vote buying, given we have 23 days to the election. People will easily exchange anything for cash, which contradicts one of the objectives of the currency swap. 

 

Money Market

Interbank rates stayed unchanged for most trading sessions this week. Weekly, the Open repo rate (OPR) stayed flat at 10.50% while Over- Night rate fell by 227bps to 10.75% (see table 3 below).

 

Table 3: Money Market

Money Market Rate

 

27-Jan-23

03-Feb-23

W-o-W % Change

OPR (%)

  10.50   

    10.50

  0.00%

O/N (%)

  11.00

    10.75

  -2.27%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research


We expect funding rates to hover around current levels. 


Treasury Bills Market 

This week, the Nigerian Treasury bill market traded mixed with selloffs skewed at November 2023 maturity and buying interests across the remaining tenors. However, the selloffs outweighed the buying interests this week, raising the NTB average benchmark yield to 1.84. 

The OMO bill’s average benchmark yield declined to 2.21% by 1845bps week-on-week (See table 4 below). 


Table 4: Treasury Bills Market

Average Benchmark Yields

 

27-Jan-23

03-Feb-23

W-o-W % Chg

T. Bills (%)

  1.61

  1.84

  +14.29

OMO Bills (%)

  2.71

  2.21

  -18.45% 

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research


Analysts expect a bullish outcome next week. 

FGN Bond Market

The bond market traded mixed this week, with selloffs at the long end of the curve while buying interests continued at the short tenors. Weekly, the average benchmark yield rose by 74bps to 13.67% (See table below).


Table 5FGN Bonds Market

Average Benchmark Yields

 

27-Jan-23

03-Feb-23

% Change

Short Tenor

 10.30

 10.25

 -0.49%

Mid Tenor

  13.97

  14.06

 +0.64%

Long Tenor

  15.14

  15.32

  +1.19%

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research 


We expect the robust liquidity to trigger more buying interest next week 


Nigeria’s first 2023 FGN Bond Auction Oversubscribed by +104.5% 

Despite the upward adjustment of the bond offer to N360bn, the primary bond auction had an oversubscription of +104.5% or N736.17bn. The Debt Management Office eventually allotted N662.607bn worth of bonds or 84.1% above the amount offered. Aside from the large liquidity triggering the huge buy interests, analysts believe the negative outlook for 2023 could have propelled investors to seek a safe haven in fixed-income instruments. The rates on 2028, 2032, 2037, and 2049 maturities settled at 14.00%, 14.90%, 15.80%, and 15.90% respectively. The buying interests suggest a strong investor’s confidence amidst high inflation expectations and hawkish monetary policy (see table 6 below). 


Table 6Nigerian Bond Auction Result Auction

Nigerian Bond Auction 

 

 Tenor

Amount offered (N’bn)

Total subscription (N’bn) 

Amount sold

 (N’bn) 

Stop Rate 

(%)

2028

     90.00

191.98

144.53

14.00

2032

    90.00

91.14

65.04

14.90

2037

    90.00

260.47

232.47

15.80

2049

    90.00

261.57

220.57

15.90

Source: Debt Management Office (DMO)

 

Equity 

 

NGX – Listed Equities

  • The Nigerian bourse ended the week on a positive note as market sentiment stayed positive.  The NGXASI closed the week with a gain of N847.08b, representing a 2.95% gain as against a 0.12% recorded in the previous week. 
  • Year-to-date, the NGXASI closed positive with a gain of 5.78% as market capitalization settled at N29.528trn.
  • Sectoral performance across sectors was broadly positive W-o-W. At the close of trading on Friday, fifteen (15) sectors closed positively while one (1) sector closed negatively while one (1) sector closed flat W-o-W. NGX Oil and Gas topped the gainer’s chart with a gain of +9.16% W-o-W while the NGX Consumer goods sector index closed negative with -0.42% W-o-W (see chart 1 below).

Chart 1: Movement of NGXASI Index Points Jan. 3 – Feb 3, 2022

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

NASD OTC Exchange - Unlisted Equities

The NASD OTC Security Index (NSI) and Market Capitalization closed the trading week on a negative note.  The NSI and Market capitalization closed the week at 717.15 points and 942.35 with an increase of 1.98% respectively (see table 7 below).

 

Table 7: NASD W-o-W Change

 

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

 

Gote And Toni Index

Gote Index closed the week positive at 139.42 index points from 139.42 index points recorded in the previous week, representing an increase of 0.06% W-o-W. NASCON and DANGSUGER closed the week positive with 2.83% and 1.18% W-o-W while DANCEM stayed flat ( see table 8 below).


Table 8: Gote Index W-o-W Change

 

Furthermore, the Toni Index closed positive at 121.58 index points from 121.48 index points recorded previously, representing an increase of 2.99% W-o-W UBA, TRANSCORP, AFRIPRUD, and UBCAP closed the week positive at 3.68%, 8.26%, 1.67%, and 1.37% W-o-W respectively while TRANSCOHOT closes the week negative at -3.20% (see table 9 below).

 

Table 9: Toni Index W-o-W Change

 

Analysts expect the bull trend to continue as investors look to take position ahead of earnings releases. 

 

Geregu Plc’s N8 per share Dividend Payment Pricks Investors’ Attention

Geregu Power Plant releases its audited financial statement for the period ended December 31, 2023, which showed a decline of -32.89% Y-o-Y from N70.96bn in 2021 to N47.62bn in 2022. The decline in revenue was attributed to a reduction in retail and whole energy consumption during the period. The statement further showed a N10.17bn profit after tax, representing a slide of -50.5% Y-o-Y compared to the previous year. The power plant, with a recent market price of N193.60 per share, saw a +10% rise in its quoted value in the last trading session with a year-to-date (YTD) rise of +29.93% after starting the year at N149. The company proposed a dividend of N8.00 per share, which came to N20bn. Analysts observe that the company’s free float, a measure of the number of shares available for public trading, stands at 1.07% or N3.9bn which is 80.5% lower than the N20bn minimum threshold value for companies listed on the NGX mainboard. Further observation is that on a recent market price of N183.60 per share, the company provides investors with a current dividend yield of 4.36%. A bit of interpretative ambiguity surrounds the power company’s statement that it would pay a dividend of N20bn from a full-year profit after tax of N10.2bn. Observers expect that the company would explain this situation at a future analysts’ conference call, as normal best corporate governance practice suggests that dividend pay-outs should be made from companies’ post-tax profits. The company can, however, dip into retained earnings to augment shareholders’ dividends, which may be the case in this instance.



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