The Nigerian Economic Dashboard @300824

Economy

Nigeria GDP for Q2 2024

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data revealed a resilient growth of the Nigerian economy. According to the statistics bureau, Nigeria's real GDP grew 3.19% in Q2 2024 from 2.98% in Q1 2024 and 1.51% in Q2 2023. According to the report, agriculture (22.61%), ICT (19.78%), and Trade (16.39%) sectors contributed the largest to GDP growth in Q2 2024, while financial and insurance (28.79%), mining and quarrying (7.79%), and ICT (4.44%) sectors were among the largest growth sectors. While we remain optimistic about the country's growth trajectory, the persistence of shocks and risks in our macroeconomic landscape may threaten the transmission effect on households' welfare.

Nigeria's Consumer Confidence Index at -47.7 in July 2024   

The latest Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Household Expectations Survey (HES) Report revealed that the Consumer Confidence Index in July 2024 stood at -41.7, below the 0.0 threshold. The report noted that the CCI may show some improvement in August at -21.8, September at -9.1, and may turn positive by October at 2.7, with consumers anticipating spending more in the months ahead. These projections are highly subject to improved economic conditions in terms of obvious resolutions to insecurity, high/scarce petrol, and high food prices. 

SEC Approves Gives Approval-In-Principle to Quidax and Busha to Operate as Digital Asset Exchanges

Following the Nigeria Securities and Exchange Commission's disclosure/plans to introduce and grant licences for providers of virtual/digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, the SEC this week granted approval in Principle to Quidax and Busha to commence operation under the Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Program (ARIP). Similarly, four firms have been admitted to testing their models and technology under the SEC's Regulatory Incubation (RI) Program. The current ARIP (a precursor to the SEC granting complete registration) and the RI Program cohort are characterised by the increased use of distributed ledger technology (DLT) in creating and trading crypto assets. While the approval-in-principle should increase participation in the digital asset market and check illicit funds flows, we believe that beyond the exchanges, the operators in the market should have standard operator procedures/certifications akin to chartered institutes of stockbrokers in the equity/fixed-income markets.

Table 1: Global Economic Spotlight This Week

Table 2: Global Economic Spotlight in The Week Ahead

Source: Various Economic Calendars, Proshare Research

Follow our WhatsApp Channel and be the FIRST to know about our latest releases, announcements, commentaries, breaking news and market

Commodity Market

Global Commodities

The global commodity futures traded down for the week. Gold and Silver dipped by -0.28% and -1.13%, respectively, on firmer dollars. Brent and WTI dipped -0.03% and -0.83% on supply concerns as Libya's production cut and Middle East tension lingers. Platinum saw a drop of -2.97%. The lone gainer, palladium, traded up 2.39% (See table 3 below).

Table 3:

*Data for August 30th, 2024, is as of 05:18 pm (Nigerian Time)

Local Commodities

AFEX commodities closed the week bullish, with Maize seeing gains of 1.24%, closing the week at N815.00, while Paddy Rice closed the week at N806.67, with a 7.56% gain. Other commodities remain unchanged (See table 4 below).

Table 4:

AFEX, Proshare Research *Data for August 30th, 2024, is as of 04:24 pm (Nigerian Time)

We expect market prices in the coming week to exhibit a close trend. 

Commodity prices at the LCFE ended the week unchanged, with Eko Gold at N88,700.00 per gram and Head rice at N72,000.00 per 50kg (see chart 5 below).

Table 5:

LCFE, Proshare Research *Data for August 23, 2024, is as of 05:11 pm (Nigerian Time)

Fixed Income Markets

Currency Market

The Naira depreciated by 178bps for the second consecutive week, settling at N1598.56/US$ from N1,570.14/US$ last week (see table 6 below). 

Table 6: Naira/Dollar at NAFEM

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

Money Market

System liquidity improved tremendously this week, causing a significant drop in interbank rates. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) and the Overnight rate (O/N) declined by 2975bps and 2335bps week-on-week to 18.11% and 20.06%, respectively (see table 7 below).

 Table 7: Money Market

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research

We expect rates to increase with CRR debits and FGN Savings bond Auction.

Nigerian Treasury Bill

This week, demand sentiment continued at the Nigerian treasury bill market, with bids spotted across all tenors. The average benchmark yield dropped to 21.45% on Friday from 22.32% last week. 

Similarly, the demand appetite trickled into the OMO Bills market, with the average benchmark yield declining to 22.52% on Friday from 25.12% last week (see 8 below).

Table 8: Average Benchmark Yields of the Treasury Bills Market

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research 

Analysts expect the positive Q2 GDP and July inflation data to sustain demand appetite.

FGN Bond Market

The positive Q2 2024 GDP data and July inflation moderation strengthened investors' appetite for bonds this week. The market witnessed strong bids across all tenors, nudging the average benchmark yield lower to 18.81% on Friday from 19.52% the previous week (see table 9 below). 

Table 9: Average Benchmark Yields of the FGN Bonds 

Source: FMDQ, Proshare Research 

Follow our WhatsApp Channel and be the FIRST to know about our latest releases, announcements, commentaries, breaking news and market

We expect the robust liquidity to sustain demand pressure.

Equity Market

NGX – Listed Equities

• The Nigeria bourse gained in four of the five trading sessions driven by the large blue-chip firms.
• The NGX All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 0.63% to close the week at 96,579.54 points from 95,973.45 points the previous week (see chart 1 below).

Chart 1: Movement of NGXASI Index December 29, 2023 – August 30 2024

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

• Investors gained N348.34bn as market capitalisation rose to N55.47trn from N55.12trn the previous week.
• The Financial Services Industry led the activity chart with 1.86bn shares valued at N15.83bn traded in 19,937 deals. 
• Investors on the floor of the Exchange traded a total turnover of 2.82bn shares worth N53.05bn in 50,488 deals this week from 5.64bn shares valued at N33.05bn that exchanged hands last week in 42,006 deals.
• Buying in OANDO (+60.71%), JB (+31.15%), and ETERNA (+31.43%) and other heavyweights lifted the market, outweighing the selloffs in TRANSPOWER (-9.99%), MTNNG (-9.91%) and UNICAP (-7.85%), among others.
• Of the twenty-three indices under our coverage for the week, fifteen appreciated, led by the NGX Oil/Gas Index; six depreciated, led by the Proshare Toni Index; while the other two closed flat (see table 10 below).

Table 10: Sectoral Index Performance as of August 30, 2024(%)

NASD OTC EXCHANGE - Unlisted Equities

• With notable gains in heavyweights like ARADEL HOLDING and 11 Plc and indexes like the Pension Index, the NASD Securities Index (NSI) rose +19.01% to close at 1,904.42 points from 1,600.16 points the previous week as market capitalisation rose to N2.61trn.
• Gains in ARADEL HOLDINGS (+36.34%), UBN PROPERTY (+1.21%) and 11 (+0.22%) drove the uptick in market performance for the week, offsetting the losses in FC WAMPCO (-0.88%), CSCS (-7.18%) and AFRILAND (-17.90%) (see table 11 below).

Table 11: NASD W-o-W Change

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

Corporate Earnings

Four companies released their earnings during the week. All but one (PZ Cussons) recorded increases in post-tax profits (see table 12 below).  

Proshare Indices

The Gote Index dipped marginally -0.10%, closing at 280.28 points from 280.58 points the previous week, driven by selloffs in NASCON and DANGSUGAR (see table 13 below). 

Table 13: Gote Index W-o-W 

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

Similarly, the Toni Index dipped -5.69%, reversing the previous week's gain to close at 1174.82 points from 1,245.73 points the previous week. The decline came from selloffs in TRANSCORP, UCAP, and TRANSPOWER, which outweighed the buying interests in UBA and AFRIPUD (see table 14 below).

Table 14: Toni Index W-o-W 

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

The Samad Index rose for the second consecutive week, trading up +2.68% to settle at 341.83 points, driven by a gain in BUA FOOD (see table 15 below). 

Table 15: Samad Index W-o-W 

Source: NGX, Proshare Research

Contact Us:

To list your events, e-mail clientservice@proshare.co, WhatsApp 0902-407-5284 or send a DM.

For further information, enquiry or clarifications, kindly email [email protected] and research@proshare.co Tel: 0700PROSHARE (070077674273). Call us NOW!

Follow @proshare @ecopoliticsNG @TheAnalystNG, @PersonalFinanceNG and @WebTVnigeria for coverage and updates.

Check out our Events Calendar for event details and follow us on WebTV, and social media for updates as the week unfolds. Yours to Serve!

Follow our WhatsApp Channel and be the FIRST to know about our latest releases, announcements, commentaries, breaking news and market intelligence!