A weaker demand growth, the mega-SPR release and more resilient Russian exports and production than previously assumed contribute to a lower price profile than expected previously. The Brent price scenario is still expected at somewhat elevated level to account for the risk of a slower than planned SPR release, resilient demand and the risk of the EU actually implementing a partial or full Russian oil embargo. Despite certain macro headwinds, seasonal demand growth is expected to materialize in the summer, and would further widen the supply gap, which could be further exacerbated by unplanned outages not yet accounted for in a base case supply forecast. In conclusion, 2022 price levels are expected to stay at an average US$111/barrel compared to a pre-war price forecast of US$64/barrel and a Q1 2022 price forecast of US$70/barrel.