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Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 240223

Feb 24, 2023   •   by United Capital Research   •   Source: United Capital   •   eye-icon 236 views

Anglophone West Africa
 
Nigeria

  • According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.5% y/y in Q4-2022 following a 2.3% y/y growth in the previous quarter. The increase was driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.7% y/y and contributed 56.3% to aggregate GDP. Overall, in FY-2022, the Nigerian economy slowed to 3.1% from the 3.4% growth recorded in 2021 as growth in the agriculture and industry sectors reduced in 2022.
  • The Federal Government (FG) has commenced the construction of an electricity substation with six feeders and stated that the project would help grow the country’s power transmission capacity to 25,000MW. Currently, Nigeria’s power transmission capacity hovers around 7,500MW and 8,000MW, though electricity generation on the national grid has been fluctuating between 4,000MW and 5,000MW for several years.
  • The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), stated that Nigeria’s oil production had increased to 1.6mbpd, still short of the 1.8mbpd quota allocated to Nigeria by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) money and credit statistics has revealed that money supply (M3) in the economy increased to N53.3tn in Jan-2023, representing a 17.9% y/y increase from N45.2tn reported in Jan-2022. This is on the back of the federal government increased borrowing from the CBN.
  • According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the total amount of currency-in-circulation in the Nigerian economy has tumbled from N3.3tn to N1.54tn, a 53.3% decline between Nov-2022 and Feb-2023.


 Ghana 

  • The country’s Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, will lead a delegation to China this week to ask for debt cancellation.
  • According to the Ghana Statistical Service, Ghana’s producer prices rose 52.1% y/y in Jan-2023 vs 52.2% in Dec-2022.



Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)  
Ivory Coast 

  • The Ivorian Government has lifted its Covid-imposed land border closure, officially re-opening its roads to neighbouring countries after nearly three years.
  • According to the Managing Director of Le Conseil Cafe Cacao (CCC), Yves Kone, the regulatory body is restricting some multinational traders from additional bean purchases for exports as the country seeks to avoid a shortage. The regulator reiterated that it won’t allow exporters to build up stocks while others have yet to cover their contracts.
  • Bloomberg reports revealed Ivory Coast farmers sent 21,595 tons of cocoa to ports last week.



Southern Africa
South Africa 

  • According to Statistics South Africa, the country’s producer prices rose less than economists expected in Jan-2023. Producer prices rose 12.7% y/y (estimate +12.8%) in Jan-2023, 80bps slower than the +13.5% y/y in Dec-2022.
  • According to the Finance minister during his presentation of the nation’s 2023 budget, select companies will be eligible to receive full or partial refunds of fuel and road accident fund levies imposed on diesel for the next three fiscal years — a tax break that’s been limited to farming, forestry, fishing, and mining companies since its inception in 2000.
  • According to extracts from the 2023 Budget presentation, the South African government will give power utility Eskom ZAR254.0bn ($13.9bn) in debt relief over the next three (3) years. However, only 168.0bn rand of capital will be redeemed, with the rest going to interest payments. This essentially takes off 40.0% of Eskom’s debt from its balance sheet (less than what most economists had expected).
  • A 254.0bn rand ($14.0bn) state bailout for South Africa’s cash-strapped power utility will help
     steady its finances but won’t immediately improve its operations or alleviate an electricity shortfall that’s crippling the economy.
  • The three-year debt-relief plan for Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd., announced in Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s budget speech on Wednesday 22nd Feb-2023, is contingent on the company bringing in private operators to help run its plants and transmission network and meeting other performance criteria.
  • Those measures will take months or even years to bear fruit, with the National Treasury warning that rolling blackouts that began in 2008 will persist until at least the end of 2024. 
  • According to a spokesman from South Africa’s Eskom, South Africa’s power utility Eskom shed
     7,000 megawatts from the national grid on Tuesday 20-Feb-2023. This was following a prior announcement to ramp up power cuts and remove 6,000 megawatts from the national grid.
  • Africa’s most industrialized economy is experiencing its worst bout of power rationing yet, with outages occurring for more than 200 days in 2022 and every day this year, because the state power utility can’t meet demand.
  • The operator of South Africa’s main stock exchange says it has enough diesel on hand to burn in generators and keep its systems running for at least six or seven days, updating clients as the country grapples with a deepening electricity supply crisis.
  • According to an announcement made by the Labour Minister, Thulas Nxesi, a day before Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented the nation’s budget, South Africa’s minimum hourly wage will increase by 9.6% to R25.42 ($1.39) from next month (Mar-2023). The increase outstrips the central bank’s inflation forecast of 5.4% for the year.
  • Moody’s Rating Agency raised South Africa and Morocco banking sector outlook to " stable". According to the agency, the upgrade to stable from negative puts the banking sectors in South Africa and Morocco on a par with Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya and the West African Economic and Monetary Union.
  • Tongaat Hulett and Deloitte & Touche South Africa have concluded an agreement in relation to claims that Tongaat had asserted against Deloitte, which arise from and relate to the appointment of Deloitte as its auditor for the financial years ending 31 March 31, 2012 to March 31, 2018.
  • Deloitte will pay the amount without admission of liability; Tongaat’s business rescue practitioners are of the considered opinion that a settlement on these terms is in the best interests of the company.


 Zambia 

  • According to Zambia’s Statistics Agency, Zambia's consumer prices rose 9.6% y/y in Jan-2023 versus 9.4% in Dec-2022, up by 20bps. This climb was particularly driven by the 11.6% y/y climb in the prices of Food and non-alcoholic beverages.
  • According to Zambia’s Statistics Agency, Zambia's total trade value moved to surplus ZMW6.1bn in Jan-2023 from deficit ZMW0.5bn in Dec-2022.
  • According to the latest auction results published on 17-Feb-2023, the Bank of Zambia was able to raise just $44.0bn vs $132.0bn required. This essentially indicates a 67.0% auction target miss, reflecting abysmal investor confidence in the copper-rich country.


 Zimbabwe 

  • Zimbabwe plans to set up an offshore financial center in the resort city of Victoria Falls that the government hopes will emulate the likes of Dubai and the Isle of Man to attract foreign investment.
  • Nelson Chamisa, the leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, said he’s confident of an emphatic win in upcoming elections despite concerns of a possible repetition of the violence and irregularities that have plagued every vote since 2000.
  • Zimbabwe has offered to settle a $3.5bn land compensation deal over 10 years, the latest change to an agreement signed in 2020 with former White farmers ejected from properties more than two decades ago.
  • According to Finance Minister, Mthuli Ncube, the Southern African nation initially wanted to offer
     payment terms of 20 years but has since decided to speed up the process.
  • The compensation will be financed through a Treasury bond, which will have prescribed-asset status and not be liable to any form of taxation as a way to entice investors. Farmers will hold a referendum on the matter soon and the bond will be issued once outstanding details are finalized.



East Africa
Kenya 

  • The European Union (EU) has announced a funding of $26.5mn to TradeMark Africa to facilitate a five-year programme aimed at boosting Kenya’s exports and supporting the government in creating a conducive export environment.
  • The programme, known as Business Environment and Export Enhancement Programme (BEEEP), aims to close the negative trade balance through export growth, factor productivity and stimulating economic development and job creation.
  • Kenya’s National Treasury plans to issue syndicated bonds in local currency in the financial year 2023/2024 as it explores new ways to raise money to finance the country’s Sh3.6tn (c. $28.6bn) budget. The bond issuance would help raise more resources and cushion the country’s debt from foreign currency depreciations.
  • According to Kenya’s Tourism Research Institute, the country forecasts its earnings from tourism, one of its primary sources of foreign currency, will surge to a new high in 2023 as the government moves to diversify its attractions. Earnings are expected to increase by 60.0% to Sh425.4bn ($3.4bn) in 2023, as the number of visitors to Kenya rise by the same measure to 2.4mn arrivals.
  • According to the National Assembly’s Public Debt and Privatisation Committee, the National Treasury is expected to establish a sinking fund for public-debt servicing within six months. The fund will be designed to set aside money for debt payments.

 

Rwanda 

  • According to the World Bank, Rwanda's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to slow to 6.2% y/y in 2023 from an estimated 8.0% in 2022.
  • The Rwanda Development Board (RDB), the Rwandan embassy in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and a delegation from Rwanda’s private sector are holding investment roadshows in the UAE to explore investment and trade opportunities between the two countries.
  • The World Health Organisation (WHO) has recognised Rwanda as one of the countries performing well on universal health coverage. According to the Health Minister, over 90.0% of Rwandans have health insurance.

 

Tanzania 

  • The Tanzania government has approved the building of a $3.5bn East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) for the transportation of oil from Uganda to Tanzania.
  • The American international aid agency, USAID, has initiated a $10.6mn (Sh24.0bn) youth empowerment project to offer vocational and life skills to thousands of Tanzanian youths.
  • The Tanzania government expects stakeholders from the public and private sectors to use the upcoming 10th East African Petroleum Conference and Exhibitions to forge partnerships and seal business deals with investors from across the globe.


 Uganda 

  • The Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) has noted that Uganda's land acquisition process for oil and gas infrastructure will become a benchmark for best practices in mega projects in Uganda and beyond over the next five years.



Central Africa 
Cameroon 

  • According to figures from the country's National Cocoa and Coffee Board, demand for arabica coffee at Cameroon's main port of Douala triggered a price increase on Tuesday. Exporters were paying XAF2,459.0 ($4.01) for a kilogram of arabica beans, up 8.0% from XAF2,273.0 paid for the beans on 7-Feb.
  • While Cameroon-Robusta coffee prices rose for the third straight week at Cameroon's leading port of Douala, owing to higher demand for the crop, as a kilogram of the beans was being marketed for XAF1,203 ($1.96), up 3.0% from XAF1,170 exporters paid for the crop on 7-Feb.
  • According to the Autonomous Amortization Fund (CAA) in a recent note, Cameroon’s public debt rose 489.0% from XAF1.9bn in 2009 to XAF11.2bn.
  • Minister of Finance Louis Paul Motazé revealed that Cameroon’s government plans to raise XAF450.0bn through securities issues this year. He also urged investors to participate in the fundraising.


 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 

  • Winds Exploration and Production LLC said its project to produce methane from Lake Kivu in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo could be expanded to a $500.0mn investment and displace diesel generators used by miners. The company plans to build a modular plant, ship methane by pipeline, and export liquefied CO2 from the 473-square-kilometre (183-square-mile) "Idjwi" block it won last month.
  • The Democratic Republic of Congo’s government revealed through the General Inspectorate of Finance called for a significant overhaul of the country’s $6.2bn minerals-for-infrastructure deal with China after its investigations found substantial breaches of the 2008 agreement. Congo has not been adequately compensated for the copper and cobalt reserves it contributed to the venture, which undertook to finance $3.0bn of infrastructure projects using the proceeds of mineral sales from a $3.2bn mine.
  • DRC and the UN's humanitarian arm on Wednesday appealed for $2.3bn in aid this year for the Central African country.  In a statement, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said the funds would meet the "critical needs" of 10 million people in the country.


 Equatorial Guinea 

  • Equatorial Guinea’s Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons announced on 20-Feb-2023 that it had signed new agreements with international oil companies (IOCs) for three offshore blocks.
  • Two agreements are production-sharing contracts (PSC) with Africa Oil Corp covering Block EG-18 and Block EG-31.  The third agreement is a PSC for Block EG-01 with Panoro Energy.

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