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Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 230922

Sep 23, 2022   •   by United Capital Research   •   Source: United Capital   •   eye-icon 149 views

Anglophone West Africa

 

Nigeria

  • The Federal Government announced its plans to increase the N30,000 minimum wage considering the rising inflationary pressures globally. According to the Minister of Labour and Employment, the adjustment had become essential to reflect the persistent uptick in global prices. 
  •  According to Debt Management Office (DMO), Nigeria’s total public debt stock, representing the domestic and external debts, rose by 2.9% to N42.8tn in Jun-2022, from N41.6tn in Mar-2022. Thus, this implies that domestic debt pushed Nigeria’s total public debt by N1.2tn in three months.
  •  According to the Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC), the Federal Government is estimated to generate over N500.0bn in 2023 through the 5G spectrum. The NNC would realise the revenue from the auctioning of two 5G spectrums, and the bidding process for auction would be 2023. Notably, the commission had generated N257.0bn in Q1-2022, of which N195bn was remitted to government coffers.
  • According to the recently released Electricity report by the NBS, the number of power consumers on estimated billing in Nigeria increased to 5.85mn in Q2-2022, from 5.84mn recorded in Q1-2022.


 Ghana

  • According to the Ghana Statistical Office, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 4.8% y/y in Q2-2022, from a 3.3% increase in Q1-2022. The services sector was the largest contributor to the growth, which expanded by 5.2%. The Agriculture and Industries sectors were behind, with a growth rate of 4.6% and 4.4 %, respectively.
  •   In addition, Ghana’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 480bps to 46.0% y/y in Aug-2022, from 41.2% y/y in Jul-2022. This is the steepest rise in producer prices since Sept-2014.
  • Ghana is set to commence talks with domestic bondholders on restructuring its domestic-debt currency debt, which forms part of its plan to secure a $3.0bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).


 Francophone West Africa

 

Ivory Coast

  • The Central Bank of West African States, also known as, BCEAO, increased the Key Policy Rate to 2.5% from 2.25%. The decision aimed at gradually bringing the inflation rate down to the central bank’s target range of 1.0% to 3.0% over the medium term.
  • The OPEC Fund for International Development, a development finance institution established by the Member States of OPEC, will provide a $60.0mn loan in support of the Northern Agro-Industrial Pole Project (2PAI-Nord) in Côte d'Ivoire. The project was created to support the construction and rehabilitation of social and market infrastructure, including rural roads, healthcare centres and schools.
  • The Institut National de la Statistique de Côte d'Ivoire revealed Ivory Coast’s August Consumer Prices rose 6.2% y/y and increased 0.5% m/m accelerating from 5.4% y/y in July.  Food & nonalcoholic beverages prices were +10.8% y/y, +0.5% m/m. While housing, water and energy prices were +5.5% y/y, +1% m/m and Health prices changed +2.9% y/y, -0.4% m/m.


 East Africa

 

Kenya

  • According to data from the Kenya Trade Network Agency (KenTrade) Business Intelligence Tool, the country’s export value rose by 17.0% in 2021 to KSh 666.7bn ($5.5bn) compared to KSh 567.4bn ($4.7bn) in 2020. Earnings from agricultural products drove export volumes from 643.7bn T to 743.7bn T in 2021.
  • Latest figures from Kenya Motor Industry Association (KMIA) show that Kenya’s car sales fell 38.6% y/y as 8,752 units were sold between Jan- to Aug-22 compared to 14,250 units sold in the same period last year. Isuzu East Africa and Toyota remain the market leaders with 43.4% and 23.2% of the total market share. 
  • The European Union has disbursed Sh845.0mn to support free legal aid services to the vulnerable communities in Kenya. According to the team leader of the National Legal Aid Services (NLAS), The funds will assist the organisation in discharging its mandate to support victims with issues including land matters, constitutional petitions and sexual offences.
  • President William Ruto, speaking in his inaugural speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), urged the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20 to extend and expand the scope of the common framework to suspend or reschedule debt repayments by middle-income countries during the pandemic recovery period.


 Rwanda

  • In a briefing in Kigali, the Governor of the National Bank of Rwanda maintained its 12.1% inflation outlook for 2022. The governor expects t inflation will fall within the 2.0%-8.0% range in Q2-23. , The Governor also projected  GDP to rise by 6.0% this year.


 Tanzania

  • Data from the KNBS show that the value of Tanzania’s imports from Kenya rose 46.0% to KES 28.66bn ($236.7mn) in H1-22 amid the ongoing elimination of non-tariff barriers.
  • Tanzania’s imports from Kenya rose 43.5% from 2020 to KES45.6bn ($376.6mn) in 2021. In the same period, Tanzania’s exports to Kenya grew 95.3% to KES 54.47bn ($449.9mn).
  • The government, as announced by the Minister of Finance, has decided to abolish the charge for transferring funds from banks to mobile networks. This includes exempting transaction charges on cash issuances through banking agencies and ATMs for transactions worth less than KSh 30,000.0 and reducing the cost of transactions by 10.0%-50.0%. The reforms will take effect on 01-Oct.


 Uganda

  • The government has commissioned a 14.0MW power plant in the Isingiro district to establish power supply in the Ankore and Kigezi regions. Also, on power, through the Uganda Electricity Transmission Company Ltd., the Government has signed an agreement with Tanzania Electricity Supply Company and Berkley Energy to purchase and equally share power generated at the plant.
  • According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), the country recorded a 28.5% y/y decline in coffee exports in Aug-22 to 501,054 60-kg bags compared with 700,990 bags in Aug-21. It attributes this decline to persistent drought in the country.
  • Nonetheless, the country’s coffee exports from Sept-21 to Aug-22 totalled 5.9mn bags worth $871.8mn, an 7.5% decrease in quantity but a 43.4% increase in value over the same period from the previous year.


 Southern Africa

 

South Africa

  • According to Statistics South Africa, headline inflation eased for the first time in 8 months to 7.6% y/y in Aug-2022 from 7.8% y/y in Jul-2022. Notably, core inflation declined by 4.4% in Aug-2022 due to price deceleration in transport. However, food inflation printed higher at 11.3%. On a monthly basis, prices were up by 0.2%
  • The Central Bank of South Africa, in its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), raised its benchmark interest rate, for a second consecutive meeting, by 75bps to 6.25% from 5.5% in the light of rising inflationary pressures and global hawkish monetary policy tone. The country’s Inflation rate remains above the apex bank’s target range of 3.0% - 6.0%.
  • According to the South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB), the apex bank revised its forecast for global growth in 2022 to 3.3% (vs 3.0% as of July). In addition, South Africa’s economy is projected to grow by 1.9%, 1.4% and 1.7% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • Also, the SARB announced that South Africa’s composite business cycle indicator decreased by 1.0% m/m in Jul-2022, as six of the ten available component time series decreased. The most significant negative contributors were a decline in the number of residential building plans approved and a decrease in the composite leading business cycle indicator for South Africa’s main trading partner countries.


 Angola

  • According to the Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Angola’s Aug-22 headline inflation printed 19.78% y/y from 21.4% y/y in the previous month. This is the first drop below 20.0% since Mar-20. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.8%, the lowest m/m increase since Apr-2015.
  • According to its Governor, Jose de Lima Massano, the Central Bank of Angola is considering cutting its benchmark interest rate as inflation decelerates.


 Zimbabwe

  • Following the latest negotiations, the government has agreed to a 25.0% increase in civil servants' US dollar wages, taking it to USD ($)125.0. Civil servants will also receive a USD ($)75.0 Covid allowance while the local currency component of salary remains unchanged. The President of the Zimbabwe Confederation of Public Sector Trade Unions (ZCPSTU) stated that the pay rise would take effect from 01-Sept.
  • Some Unions, including the Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ), have expressed dissatisfaction with the offer. The Amalgamated Rural Teachers Union of Zimbabwe (ARTUZ), Progressive Teacher’s Union of Zimbabwe (PTUZ) and the Federation of Zimbabwe Educators Union (FOZEU) have threatened to go on strike on 26-Sept if an agreement is not made.


 Central Africa

 

Gabon

  • The Securities Settlement and Custody Unit (CRCT) of BEAC reported that as of August 31, 2022, borrowings on the public securities market reached CFA5,042.5bn, 73.9% of which was absorbed by Cameroon, Gabon, and Congo. Gabon comes first with an outstanding amount of CFA1,321.6 billion, 26.2% of the total.


  Chad

  • Secretary General Maritime Organisation of West and Central Africa (MOWCA) Paul Adalikwu promised to facilitate seamless cargo movement from Nigeria’s dry ports to the Republic of Chad.
  • According to a loading program seen by Bloomberg, Chad will keep Doba Crude Exports Stable at four cargoes in Nov-2022. Chad is scheduled to ship four cargoes of 950k bbl of Doba in November, Equivalent to 127k b/d, compared with four cargoes totalling 123k b/d in October.


  Cameroon

  • Data from the National Hydrocarbons Corporation revealed that Cameroon’s Q2-2022 Production Dropped 4.7% y/y, and sales rose 32.5%. Production fell to 6.2mn barrels from Jan through June compared to 6.5mn barrels during the same period a year earlier.
  • The Energy of Cameroon or ENEO, the country’s partly state-owned electricity company, announced fragile supply-demand balance could cause sporadic rationing in the south. Demand is currently exceeding supply in six of the country’s ten regions. 
  • Supply shortage due to drop in water level at the HydroPower Plant in the South and repair work on the Songloulou Hydro plant
  • Cameroon's liquefied natural gas output is expected to rise by 14.0% in 2023 compared with the anticipated output for this year, according to data from the National Hydrocarbons Corporation of Cameroon. The liquefied natural gas produced by the floating refinery vessel Hilli Episeyo, located in Cameroon's Atlantic coastal town of Kribi, will rise to 1.6mn tons by 2023 from 1.4 mn tons expected by the end of 2022.
  • According to the National Cocoa and Coffee Board, Arabica coffee prices dropped at Cameroon's chief port of Douala for the third week as supply increased. Exporters paid 3,023 CFA francs ($4.61) per kilogram of the beans, down 1.7% from September 13th. However, price decreases at the port have not affected those paid for the beans at farm gates in Cameroon's only two regions producing and marketing the product.

 

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