Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released inflation data for the month of Jun-2022. In line with our projection, headline inflation printed at 18.6% y/y, 88bps higher than 17.8% it printed in May-2022. On a monthly basis, we saw inflation rise by 1.8% m/m, compared 1.1% m/m rise in Jun-2021.
• Food inflation, which is the major component of the basket, rose by 2.1% m/m, higher than the 2.0% m/m increase recorded in May-2022 due to unabating pressures on food prices, security challenges in food-producing states and other supply-side constraints. On the other hand, we saw weakened inflation pressure on the core sub-index as the sub-index rose 1.6% m/m compared to 1.9% m/m in May-2022.
• On 19-Jul, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) concluded its 286th meeting, with the chairman announcing the unanimous decision of the committee to continue combatting inflation. The MPC decided to further increase the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 100bps, bringing it to 14.0% while maintaining Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 27.5%, the Asymmetric corridor at +100/-700 basis point around the MPR, and the Liquidity ratio was retained at 30.0%.
• The CBN communique of the MPC meeting held on Tuesday stated that Nigeria’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.1 index points in Jun-22 (previously 48.9 in May-22), surpassing the 50-index point benchmark. It reflects improved economic activity and sector expansion. These is likely to ease any recession concerns for Nigeria.
• The formerly state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) was earlier this week unveiled as a limited liability company (NNPC Ltd.) by President Buhari. The NNPC disclosed that it would discontinue its monthly remittances to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC). The new entity was thus excluded from institutional regulations going forward.
• The Federal government has continued to remain mute on the recent increase in the price of PMS. A document is in circulation which shows the increase in petrol price across Lagos, Abuja and all the geo-political zones. The new price of PMS ranges from N169/litre to N189/litre in the new document. The new prices have been adopted based on our survey.
• Nigeria’s Forcados grade is being offered again at elevated premiums to dated Brent. For context, Nigeria’s Forcados for end-August offered at a $14.0/bbl premium to Dated Brent, according to traders.

Ghana

• According to data from Ghana Statistical Services, the country’s annual producer inflation rose for a 10^th consecutive month to 38.0% y/y in Jun-22 compared to 33.3% y/y in May-22, the highest level since 2014. It is driven by rising food and beverage, and fuel prices, and a weakening currency. It also represents the highest rate of change since Mar-22, suggesting price pressures continue to build.
• The Ghana Cedi (GH¢) has declined 26.0% YTD against the USD ($), making it the second-worst performing currency in the world, of those tracked by Bloomberg, after the Sri Lankan rupee (Rs).
• The Ghanian parliament has approved a $750.0mn loan facility between the Government and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank). The proceeds of the loan will finance critical infrastructure as captured in the 2022 budget.
• The loan is in two tranches with financing terms including a three-year grace period and repayment periods for tranche A and B set at three and four years respectively, after the grace period. The Government took the loan syndication approach as a result of the country’s loss of access to international capital markets. 

 
Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)

Senegal

• The Senegalese Minister of Economy has urged the global food industry to avoid boycotting the trade of Russian and Ukrainian food products, as food crisis rages on in vulnerable countries.
• The African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF) and the Government of Senegal have signed a partnership agreement aimed at improving agricultural productivity in the country and the West African sub-region at large.
• Woodside Energy has scrapped the plan to sell a stake in Sangomar oil project in Senegal as it reported a 44.0% jump in revenue in Q2-2022. Sales increased to $3.4bn in Q2-2022, more than 160% y/y rise compared to $1.3bn in Q2-2021. This was buoyed by booming oil and gas prices and a 60.0% surge in production.

Mali

• According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the World Bank lifted the suspension of its financial operations in Mali. The suspension measure was taken in May-2022, after the military government threatened take over political power. The Bank announced that it will resume the disbursements of funds for projects and programs in the country.

Ivory Coast

• Bizao, an Ivory Coast-based payment fintech startup, raised $8.2mn in a Series A funding round to expand its operations geographically.

East Africa

Rwanda

• Rwanda has embraced the Remote Appraisal, Supervision, Monitoring and Evaluation (RASME) initiative, a tool that enhances project-related data collection in remote areas. The initiative is a partnership with the African Development Bank’s IT department and Rwanda is the first East African country to adopt it.
• RASME enables Bank staff, country & regional program officers, and government officials to compile project information directly from the field, using smartphone, tablet or laptop, drones and satellites.

 Tanzania

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s board has approved a $1.1bn extended credit facility for Tanzania and plans to disburse $151.7mn immediately. The financing is the country’s first IMF policy-reform funding program in a decade.
• The credit facility will help with economic recovery and address the negative impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. It will also enhance macroeconomic stability, as well as underpin structural reforms.

 Kenya

• According to data from Bloomberg, Kenya’s 2024-dollar bond yield fell below 20.0% for the first time in almost a week, after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the disbursement of a $235.6mn loan to Kenya and the ruling out of the nation’s debt restructuring plans by the presidential contender William Ruto if he wins the election.
• According to the IMF, Kenya will introduce additional tax measures in the 2022-23 financial year, if the East African nation’s government loses an appeal challenging the validity of a new levy known as minimum tax. For context, the new levies will be aimed at raising Shs8.0bn, the same amount as the minimum tax.
• According to the auction manager, Tea Brokers East Africa, Africa’s average tea price declined to $2.21/kg at last week’s auction in the Kenyan port city of Mombasa, for the second consecutive week, from $2.24/kg the previous week. In further context, about 72.0% of the 12.4mn Kg on offer was sold at the last auction.
• According to Bloomberg, the Kenyan Revenue Authority released a notice setting the excise tax rates for specific goods and services. The notice provides a 10.0% excise tax rate on specific imported goods among others.
• According to the IMF, Kenya halted plans to sell Eurobonds to manage debt, including rolling over of the Eurobond maturing in 2024, in light of the heightened volatility and negative market sentiment toward emerging and frontier markets.
• According to IMF, the Kenyan government plans to set up panel to oversee the progressive elimination of the fuel subsidy within the first half of the fiscal year 2022-23.
• The IMF approved the disbursement of a $235.6mn loan to Kenya, as the East African nation met the lender’s targets and made progress in addressing its debt vulnerabilities. In further context, the approval brings the IMF’s total disbursement to Kenya to $1.2bn vs a total of about $2.3bn available under a 38-month program approved in April 2021.
• According to the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), the country’s oversea remittances climbed 6.6% y/y in June vs 7.6% y/y print in May.
• According to the National Treasury of Kenya, the East African nation’s public debt rose to Shs8.6tn at the end of May from Shs8.5tn in previous month, 69.1% of the country’s GDP.

 Uganda

• According to Uganda’s finance ministry, the country will not disburse all the money it budgeted for CAPEX in Q1-2022-23 financial year, in an attempt to put a lid on inflation.
• According to the Kampala-based daily monitor, the country’s debt climbed to 54.0% of GDP, above the 50.0% threshold, due to increased borrowing to mitigate the effects on Covid-19 on the economy. 

 
Southern Africa

Angola

• According to the Ministry of Energy and Water, the country has just completed two photovoltaic plants, the first will produce 189MWp of power while the second 96MWp from 767,000 solar panels. For further context, the combined output is said to be enough to supply electricity to up to 1.5mn people in the Benguela province.
• According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the country’s sovereign bonds are currently trading at distressed levels, as debt risks remain unabated. For context, each of Angola’s six dollar-denominated government bonds and three from Gabon are trading at more than 1,000bps above US Treasuries, a threshold that signals a nation may struggle to pay its debt.
• The National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels revealed that the Angolan government has just awarded eight (8) oil concessions from a licensing round held since 2020. For context, the winning bidders include (but not limited to): Sonangol, the state-owned crude company and Somoil.
• According to Bloomberg, Angola plans to increase its crude exports in September, compared with August. For context, Angola’s export loadings are poised to gain 1.2mbpd in September from scheduled 1.1mbpd in August.
• Angola’s long-term issuer default rating was affirmed by Fitch at B-, with a positive outlook from stable.

 South Africa

• On Thursday, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) held its Monetary Policy Committee meeting, deciding to raise its benchmark interest rate by 75bps to 5.5% (previously 4.75%), its biggest increase in policy rate in two decades. This is greater than consensus estimate of 5.25%.
• Last week, Statistics South Africa released the country’s June CPI numbers, which revealed a 90bps uptick in the general prices of goods and services in South Africa, from 6.5% y/y in May to 7.4% y/y, 10bps higher than consensus market expectation.
• According to the amaBhungane Centre for Investigative Journalism, South Africa’s state-owned Central Energy Fund is setting up a gas-trading entity with Mozambique’s Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos that will initially import two petajoules of gas a year. 
• According to South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, the deadline for cleaner fuel regulations has been moved to 2027 from 2023, due to technical work involved in converting the nation’s refineries.

 Zambia

• According to the state-owned broadcasting network (ZNBC) radio reports, the World Bank has approved $155.0mn for Zambia’s social grants, stating that the funds are meant to cushion Zambians against rising fuel, food, and fertiliser prices under the nation’s cash-transfer program. Also, a $27.0mn loan was approved for Zambia by the World Bank.
• According to Reuters, Zambia’s creditors are set to commit to the debt relief necessary to unlock $1.4bn from the IMF.

 Zimbabwe

• According to the Revenue Authority of Zimbabwe, the authority is likely to revise upward its FY-22 target of Z$809.4bn in tax collection going into H2-22, after rounding up a total of Z$491.5bn in H1-22 vs the Z$359.2bn target for H1-22.
• According to Bloomberg, Caledonia Mining Corp. has agreed to buy one of Zimbabwe’s biggest gold mining projects (Bilboes Gold Ltd) as it seeks to expand in the southern African country. In the deal, the Jersey-based Corp. will buy Bilboes for about $53.3mn in shares, plus a royalty on revenues.
• As disclosed by the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe, mining companies in the country have begun to clamour for freedom to retain 80.0% of their earnings in foreign currency compared with the current limit of 60.0%, to help them with service providers who ask to be paid in dollars, and for their own operational requirements.
• According to Bloomberg, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. commenced discussions with antitrust regulators in Zimbabwe, regarding lithium sulphate production in the country. Both parties agreed to explore the viability of developing locally produced lithium sulphate only when the construction and economic conditions are right.
• Zimbabwe-born billionaire Strive Masiyiwa, who runs firms including Africa’s largest fiber-optic cable network, plans to raise as much as $500.0mn to expand his digital infrastructure and services businesses.

 
Central Africa

Cameroon

• The Cameroonian government plans to bring its debt level to 50.0% of its GDP by 2025, compared to 45.1% at the end of May-2022. To achieve this, the country plans to focus on paying its debt on time and clearing all domestic arrears (outstanding debts, floating debts, unstructured debts, etc.)
• The African Development Bank (AfDB) has made CFA42.0bn available to Cameroon to support the country’s crop and grain production. The support will be provided through the loan facility approved by the bank to help African countries withstand the negative impact of the Russian-Ukraine conflict.
• The Cameroon General Directorate of Taxes (DGI) plans to collect a total of CFA1.0tn in non-oil tax revenues in H2-2022. The government office had collected CFA1.1tn (up 13.9% y/y) in H1-2022. The impressive collection rate was influenced by the implementation of tax on money transfers, taxation of taxpayers in new non-profit system, among others.
• According to the mid-term economic and budgetary programming document (2023-2025), the Cameroonian government will repay CFA287.6bn in public debt interest in 2023 (up 20% y/y).

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• According to the oil ministry, Democratic Republic of Congo has increased the number of oil and gas permits up for auction to 30 from 16 in order to maximize the auction and grow its oil industry. The call for offers is set to take place later this month and will encompass 27 oil blocks and 3 gas permits.