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Snapshot on the African Economy as @ 170622

Jun 17, 2022   •   by United Capital Research   •   Source: United Capital   •   eye-icon 327 views

Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

  • According to data sourced from the Association of Nigerian Electricity Distributors (ANED) commercial KPI report for Q4-2021, the total number of registered power users printed at 10.0 million with only 47.0% of users metered.
  • The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) under its Pandemic Trade Impact Mitigation Facility (PATIMFA), has disbursed $150.0mn to First Bank of Nigeria Ltd. The funds will be accessible to First Bank clients involved in the development and importation of supplies and equipment essential to battle Covid-19.
  • The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) as part of the National Mass Metering Programme (NMMP) has disclosed that it is reviewing bids from 45 domestic meter manufacturers. This is preparatory for the second phase of the program which commences on Aug-22.
  • The NMMP was initiated by the Federal Government to close the metering gap in Nigeria’s electricity supply. It has an installation target of 4mn meters for customers.
  • On Wednesday, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) published the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for May-22. According to the index, headline inflation rose 529bps to 17.7%, an 11-month high. Food inflation soared by 2.01 per cent month-on-month (MoM) in May, 1bp higher than April’s figure.
  • The Federal Government and the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) have signed a $40m intervention fund for women in the Oil and Gas sector to increase women’s participation. This fund is made available through the NCDMB-NEXIM Bank collaboration, in addition to the existing $300m Nigerian Content Initiative Fund. It is managed by the Bank of Industry.


 Ghana

  • Bloomberg reports revealed that $1bn has been pledged by European banks to be loaned to the nation to boost its foreign reserves and for budgetary purposes. The FG aims to reduce its deficit and stabilize its currency.
  • The World Bank is set to disburse $145mn International Development Association (IDA) credit as additional finance for the Ghana Secondary Cities Support Program (GSCSP).
  • The Development Bank of Ghana aims to disburse c. $800mn in capital. It aims to increase lending to small and medium-sized businesses by 5x to help abate funding challenges.
  • The Bank of Ghana recently released a report revealing, that the nation’s interest payments hit GH¢10.6 billion in the Q1-2022 with foreign payments accounting for 17.3%
  • The Ghana Statistical Service revealed the Nation’s inflation numbers jumped to 27.6%y/y  in may from 23.6% in April
  • Deputy Minister for Land and Natural Resources, Benito Owusu-Bio disclosed that 2022 Green Ghana Programme 22.7 million seedlings have been distributed as of Jun-22


 Francophone West Africa

Ivory Coast

  • According to Bloomberg, Ivorian farmers sent out 31,112 tonnes of cocoa to ports last week. On the back of the 65.6% y/y increase in Cocoa grind exports at the end of Q1-2022  to print at 417,000 tonnes
  • According to a statement by Prime Minister Patrick Achi, international lenders pledged a total of $26.1bn to aid the nation’s 2021-2025 development plan.
  • According to Bloomberg, Ivory Coast’s Ministry of Economy and Finance signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Global Center on Adaptation to increase the share of adaptation and resilience investments financed by the country’s forthcoming €2bn Sustainable Bond Program.


 Senegal

  • The Societe Nationale des Eaux du Senegal awards a $146mn contract to the Eiffage consortium to design, build and operate the Mamelles seawater desalination plant.


 
East Africa

Kenya

  • The Head of the Public Debt Management Office, Haron Sirima, on 13-June revealed that Kenya plans to borrow $1.0bn from banks by the end of the month. This follows the Treasury’s halted plan to issue a Eurobond. The plan for a syndicated loan is sought to help plug the nation’s Ksh1.02trn ($8.7bn) budget deficit.
  • The Treasury Secretary, Ukur Yatani, disclosed Kenya’s plans to phase out fuel subsidies in the next financial year beginning next month (Jul-22). It comes as the fuel price has increased for the 4th consecutive month and is unlikely to return to levels seen before the Russian war. The regulator announced a 6.0% increase in the retail price of petrol in Nairobi.
  • The World Bank has approved a $385.0mn for its Horn of Africa Groundwater Plan. The project is set to benefit Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. The project aims to boost the region’s capacity to adapt to the impact of climate change. An estimated 3.3mn people are set to benefit from the 1st phase of the program.


 Tanzania

  • The government and companies, including Equinor ASA, ExxonMobil and Shell Plc, have signed initial agreements towards the development of a $40.0bn LNG project. This signing precedes a Host Government Agreement (HGA) which is expected to be signed by year-end, according to the President. Developing the LNG-export project could begin in 2025, 3 years after a final investment decision is made. It comes after a decade of prolonged negotiations.
  • Tanzania increased its 2022/23 National budget by 9.0% to TSh41.8trn for the financial year starting Jul-22. The budget projects to collect domestic revenue of TSh28.02trn, 67.5% of the total budget. Plans to borrow TSh5.78trn from domestic markets and TSh3.03trn from non-concessional sources.
  • A United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report projects Tanzania’s 2022/23 coffee crop production to decrease 4.0% y/y to 1.15mn bags due to high fertilizer prices and drought conditions in Q1-2022. Exports are expected to fall at the same rate to 1.05m bags, each weighing 60kg (132lb).


 Uganda

  • According to 2022/23 budget documents, the nation’s financing gap will narrow by 260bps from 7.3% to 5.4% of GDP. It expects to collect Ush30.8trn in domestic revenue. Domestic and external financing will amount to Ush5.01trn and Ush6.72trn respectively. Total expenditure will be Ush48.1trn, 7.4% greater than the initially budgeted USh44.8trn.
  • The nation’s largest gold discovery is now at its development stage. The Wagagai Gold Project in Busia, close to the Kenyan border, holds an estimated 12.9MT of ore as disclosed by Uganda’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development. Its gold ore is at 2.89g/t grade.
  • This is in addition to earlier discoveries by the government of 103.0MT of iron ore in the South-Western Kabale district, and 15.0MT in the neighbouring Rubanda district.


 
Southern Africa
 Angola

  • Angolan state diamond company, Endiama, has seized a stake in the nation’s biggest diamond miner, Catoca, giving it majority control of the world’s 4th largest diamond mine. Catoca owners include Russia’s Alrosa, the world’s largest diamond miner and subject to US sanctions, and until recently, LLI International, a unit of China Sonangol.
  • The attorney general’s office blocked LLI’s participation and transferred control of its 18.0% stake to the state body, the Institute for Management of Assets and State Holdings (IGAPE). Angola, therefore, holds 59.0% of the shares of Catoca
  • The privatisation program (Propriv) has to date raised Kz919.8bn (€1.9bn) from privatisation contracts of 88 assets and companies, of which it has received Kz534.97bn (€1.1bn). The program plans to conclude 44 cases by yearend. Started in 2019, the implementation of Propriv is 67.0% of the total predicted.
  • In response to news of the alleged Luanda refinery maintenance and the implication of an impending butane-gas supply constraint, the Gas and Renewable Energy Business Unit (UNGER) of the State-owned oil company Sonangol reassured consumers on Wednesday that it has available enough butane to supply the domestic market.


 Mozambique

  • Mozambique’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 9.3% y/y in May-22, versus 7.9% in Apr-22, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics of Mozambique.
  • The IMF has stated that Mozambique’s request for an economic program, which began in January, could reach its board by the end of June. There is however no timeline for the conclusion of ongoing negotiations between both parties.


 South Africa

  • The Bank of America Corporation (BofA) has raised South Africa’s 2022 GDP growth estimate from 1.8% to 2.8%, given the economy’s positive performance in Q1-2022. The BofA sees a risk of contraction in Q2-2022 from the reduced electricity supply, the impact of deadly floods and structural logistical challenges. Economic growth is projected to moderate at 1.6% in 2023.
  • The Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe expressed South Africa’s consideration of purchasing Russian oil, given it is not on the country’s sanctions list. It is a possible measure to mitigate steep fuel prices in the country.
  • South Africa will resume payment of Covid-19 grants this month. According to the Johannesburg-based Institute for Economic Justice, the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant was not remitted in April and May after the government changed the criteria for the payments. Over10mn beneficiaries have been affected.


 Zambia

  • Finance Minister, Situmbeko Musokotwane, disclosed that country is poised to win board approval from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $1.4bn loan and associated economic program by Sept-22.
  • Zambia’s China-led creditors held their first meeting with President Hakainde Hichilema on 16-Jun under the Group of 20’s Common Framework to discuss restructuring the nation’s debt.  China will chair the creditors’ committee.
  • Zambia seeks financing assurances from its official creditors to win IMF board approval for its $1.4bn bailout package.

 
Zimbabwe

  • President Emmerson Mnangagwa revealed on 10-Jun that 12 banks have been penalized for financial indiscipline that fueled inflation and undermined the currency. The Central Bank reportedly probed 16 lenders suspected of financial malfeasance that resulted in a spike in the exchange rate on the parallel market. The institutions and penalties imposed were not specified.


 
Central Africa
 
Cameroon

  • Cameroon’s four-month oil export revenues rose 68.7% y/y on the back of increased oil prices. Crude oil outputs dropped to 8.2 million barrels a 38.0% decline, according to Bloomberg reports.
  • According to Bloomberg reports, the nation’s Palm Oil production is on track to reach record levels of 425,000 metric tonnes in 2023.
  • Rating agency Fitch on the back of a stable outlook, affirms the nation’s long-term issuer default rating at B.


 Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

  • Patrick Muyaya, the government spokesman, on behalf of President Félix Tshisekedi and the High Council of Defence, outlined the government will suspend all trade and non-trade agreements concluded with Rwanda.


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