Anglophone West Africa

Nigeria

• Bloomberg reports revealed Nigeria’s sovereign-risk premium jumped the most in three months earlier in the week. The extra yield investors demand to own the West African country’s dollar debt rather than US Treasuries widened 49bps to 780bps, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.
• The House of Representatives, yesterday, partly approved the requests made by the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), on Ways and Means Advances from the Central Bank of Nigeria. The House dropped the request for the securitisation of the N22.7tn overdraft from the CBN while it approved disbursing and restructuring of a fresh N1.0tn overdraft to fund the 2022 supplementary budget.
• Yesterday, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele announced that holders of the old N200, N500 and N1000 banknotes would still have the opportunity to redeem the face value of their cash only at central bank offices nationwide after the 10-Feb deadline, when the currencies would have lost its legal tender status, in line with the provision of Section 20(3) of the CBN Act.
• Data from the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency showed that from Jan- to Nov-2022, Nigeria flared an estimated 5.6bn standard cubic meters of gas valued at $685.0mn. Between 2012 and 2022, Nigeria flared an estimated 80.0bn standard cubic meters of gas worth about N9.0tn as part of its oil production process.
• According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Nigerian Domestic & Foreign Debt Q3-2022 report, Nigeria’s public debt stock, which includes external and domestic debt, stood at N44.1tn ($101.9 bn) from N42.8tn ($103.3 bn) in Q2-22.
• According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth in the Nigerian economy is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2022 to 3.2% in 2023 due to measures made to address production issues in the oil sector. The IMF noted that growth across sub-Saharan Africa would moderate to 3.8% in 2023 amid the prolonged fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has recovered N1.9tn worth of currency outside the banking system in two months following its naira notes redesign and cash swap policy. Thus, the apex bank has been able to reduce the currency outside the banking system to N900.0bn from N2.7tn earlier announced.
• The President has inaugurated the 10-megawatt Kano Solar Power Project funded by the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) with the sum of $16.0mn. The project will catalyse growth in the power sector and build Nigeria’s credentials in the fight against climate change, supporting the achievement of a net zero carbon emission by 2060.

Ghana

• According to inflation data released by Ghana Statistical Service, the country’s consumer price index climbed more than expected in Dec-2022, printing at 54.1% y/y vs an estimate of 51.8% y/y, and 380bps higher than Nov 2022’s 50.3% y/y print.
• Ghana’s government has extended a deadline for domestic bondholders to accept a debt-swap proposal while finalizing negotiations with holdouts. Ghana’s Finance Ministry confirmed in a statement that the exchange offer for 137.3bn cedis ($11.2 bn) of public debt, meant to close Tuesday, will now expire on 7-Feb, while the new settlement date will be 14-Feb.
• The Bank of Ghana raised its benchmark interest rate by 100bps to 28.0%. the rates were raised by less than consensus forecasts. 
• The Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee (comprising a panel of banks and asset managers) ruled on Wednesday that the statements released by Ghana’s Finance Ministry on 19-Dec to announce a suspension of debt servicing on its Eurobonds, commercial term loans and most of its bilateral debt, meet the definition of a "potential repudiation/moratorium". It doesn’t yet constitute a so-called credit event, because the nation hadn’t missed payments on its bonds.

Francophone West Africa (WAEMU)

Senegal

• Qatar Chamber (QC) has announced its plans to establish a joint business council with the Senegalese Export Promotion Agency. The Chamber noted its great interest in enhancing cooperation with the Senegalese private sector in several sectors like agriculture, industry, mining, and others.

Ivory Coast

• Ivory Coast will increase the amount of cocoa it processes domestically to 49.0% of total production starting from Oct-2023 This increase is supported by the recent agreement between the country and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the construction of a new plant in San Pedro with a grinding capacity of 120,000 tonnes.

Mali

• Mali plans to rely on the local market to meet its growing financing needs due to its difficulties in accessing the international markets. The country plans to raise more than XOF1.4tn ($2.3bn) in the market in 2023. This represents 60.0% of Mali’s 2023 budget, estimated at XOF2.2tn ($3.7bn).
• This strong interest in the local market is on the back of major rating agencies’ downgrade of the country’s sovereign rating following the sanctions imposed by ECOWAS due to the political and diplomatic situation prevailing in Mali.
• China’s Hainan Mining plans to provide total financing of $117.8mn for the development and commencement of production at the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali to support major exploration and development programmes.

East Africa

Kenya

• The Monetary Policy Committee on 30-Jan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 8.75%. According to the Governor, Patrick Njoroge, the pause will allow the 50bps hike in Nov-2022 to transmit into the economy.
• According to the Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya’s consumer prices rose 9.0% y/y in Jan-23 (vs +9.1% y/y in Dec-2022), below expectations. CPI rose 0.2% m/m in Jan-2023 (vs 0.2% m/m in Dec-2022).
• The Central Bank of Kenya on 31-Jan stated that the country will receive in excess of $700.0mn from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Jun-2023. Both bodies will disburse $400.0mn and $300.0mn respectively. The IMF’s disbursement is expected after the lender concludes its scheduled program review in Jun-23. According to the Governor, these disbursements will ease pressure on Kenya’s foreign reserves.

Rwanda

• According to data published by the National Institute of Statistics, Rwanda, Dec-22 Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 12.9% y/y (vs 12.3% y/y in Nov-2022). PPI rose 3.2% m/m.
• The IMF projects Rwanda’s economic growth at 6.2% in 2023 and 7.5% in 2024. The organization estimates the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reduced Rwanda pre-pandemic projections by 1.7ppt. Also, it believes current tensions with its neighbour, the Democratic Republic of Congo, will affect Rwanda’s investment climate.
• S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Rwanda’s long-term foreign currency debt rating at B+. The country’s outlook was revised from negative to stable, reflecting low debt servicing costs, the country’s strong growth prospects, and the easing of fiscal pressures.

Tanzania

• According to the Bank of Tanzania, M3 money supply rose 11.6% y/y in Dec-2022 (vs 12.7% in Nov-2022).

Uganda

• According to data from the Uganda’s Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose 10.4% in Jan-2023 (vs 10.2% in Dec-2022). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% m/m (vs +0.1% in Dec-2022). Core inflation rose 9.0% y/y (vs 8.4% y/y in Dec-2022) while Food inflation slowed to 27.6% y/y (vs 29.4% y/y in Dec-2022). Energy, fuel, and utilities inflation slowed to 7.6% y/y in Jan-2023 from 10.6% y/y in the preceding month.
• Parliament has approved the $13.6bn draft budget for the 2023-24 FY. The proposed USh 50.0tn budget will be financed primarily through domestic revenue (USh 28.8tn) with the balance sourced from budget support (USh2.4tn), domestic borrowing (USh1.6tn), external project support (USh 8.0tn), domestic refinancing (USh 8.7tn) and local government revenue (USh 238.5bn).
• The Government will revise its estimates based on parliament’s recommendations and present it to lawmakers for the final budgeting process by 15-Mar.

Southern Africa

South Africa

• According to the Automotive Business Council, South Africa’s new vehicle sales climbed less than economists expected in Jan-2023, climbing 4.8% y/y (estimate +7.5%).
• According to data compiled by the Bureau for Economic Research, South Africa’s Jan-2023 Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) declined by 19bps to 53.0pts from 53.1pts in Dec-2022. We note that within this period, business activities climbed 23.9% m/m in Jan-2023 to print at 56.0pts from 45.2pts.
• According to the South African Revenue Service (SARS), the country’s trade surplus narrowed less than economists expected in Dec-2022, to print at ZAR5.4bn (estimate ZAR5.3bn), from the revised ZAR7.3bn in Nov-2022.
• According to South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, the retail price of 93- and 95-octane gasoline was increased by 28 cents per liter on Wednesday.

 
Angola

• According to the National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels, production at Dalia field in Block 17 will halt until 26-Mar for scheduled annual maintenance. In addition, the shutdown won’t impact Angola’s commitments to supply crude to the international market.
• Furthermore, Floating Production Storage and Offloading or FPSO at Dalia pumps 120,000 b/d and is operated by TotalEnergies.
• Earlier in the week, Angola, Zambia, and Democratic Republic of Congo agreed to establish a new agency that will oversee the development of a trade corridor to and from the Atlantic Ocean port of Lobito that has the potential to transform how the region’s resources are shipped. 
• According to a loading plan seen by Bloomberg, Angola is scheduled to reduce crude loadings to 902k b/d in March, from 1.05m b/d in February. We note that this is the lowest loading from the country for any month since Feb-2008.

 
Zambia

• Zambia’s central bank increased commercial lenders’ reserve ratios to slow a slide in the nation’s currency battered by debt-restructuring talks that have dragged for two years. The reserve ratio on domestic- and foreign-currency deposits was increased to 11.5% from 9.0%. The increased reserve-ratio requirements are effective 13-Feb.
• According to the Energy Regulation Board Chairman, Reynolds, Gasoline cost rose to 27.22 kwacha/liter from 24.49 kwacha/liter earlier this week, representing an 11.1% climb.
• China expressed the need for multilateral development banks to offer debt relief to Zambia, which is something the World Bank has explicitly rejected and is projected to further complicate efforts to restructure the country’s borrowing.
• China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, disclosed in a briefing that the key to easing Zambia’s debt burden "lies in the participation of multilateral financial institutions and commercial creditors in the debt-relief efforts". She further iterated that multilateral institutions and private creditors hold "the bulk" of Zambia’s foreign debt.

Zimbabwe

• Zimbabwe’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate on expectations that the downward trend in inflation will continue. The policy committee lowered the rate to 150.0% from 200.0%.
• The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe’s monetary policy committee is the second central bank on the continent after Angola to cut rates this year at a time when most are still raising borrowing costs to temper inflation.
• According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency Director-General, Taguma Mahonde, the agency is considering adopting a different measure of inflation to take account of the growing use of US dollars in the economy.
• He further iterated that the office plans to ask the government to allow it to adopt the so-called "blended consumer price index" as the inflation benchmark because it’s a better gauge of the nation’s economic reality.
• According to Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, the country’s consumer prices rose 229.8% y/y in Jan-2023 versus 243.8% in Dec-2022.
• According to Anthony Mandiwanza, the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority’s board chairman, net tax collections rose to Z$2.0tn in FY-2022 compared with target of Z$1.6tn set by the state’s Treasury.

Central Africa

Cameroon

• The Cameroonian government has increased the price of a litre of regular fuel by 15.9% to CFA730 from CFA630, while diesel rose by 25.2% to CFA720 from CFA575. The rise is due to the government and trade unionists’ aim at preserving budgetary equilibrium in the face of price hikes of petroleum products on the international market.
• The Cameroonian authorities have reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), under which Cameroon will receive $74.6mn (CFA45.1bn) once the third review of the ECF-EFF arrangements is completed and approved.
• The French Development Agency (AFD) has signed three financial deals with Cameroon to support development projects in the Northern part of the country. The deals will see the Agency provide CFA33.4bn to modernise the industrial fabric of the Cotton Development Corporation (Sodecoton), to implement the "Green and Resilient Northern Cameroon" project, and the Support Project for the Development of Agricultural Sectors (PADFA II).

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

• The Republic of Congo and the World Bank have launched a Digital Transformation Acceleration Project. The World Bank contributed to this strategic pillar as part of its Digital Economy initiative for Africa, which aims to support countries in their digitalisation efforts.