Sunday, September 11, 2016/Proshare Research

The Diagnosis
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended September 09, 2016 technically revealed waning optimistic trading as investors displayed low risk appetite towards equities along with active speculative tendency.

Also, an extensive analysis revealed growth in distribution level across key active sectors, particularly towards stocks in Financial Services, Natural Resources and Construction/Real Estate sectors.

In addition, volume analysis revealed active sell tendency towards FCMB, UNITYBNK, WEMABANK and FLOURMILLwhile investors displayed moderate bargain sentiments towards IKEJAHOTEL, UBN, MAYBAKER and AIICO

In a similar vein, investors displayed fresh and growing sell tendency in some active sector(s), particularly in Financial Services, Industrial Goods and Services sector(s). However, we observed a fresh and growing bargain tendency in Healthcare and Oil & Gas

Summarily, the bears dominated the week, depressing the key benchmark index by 179.15 points against 305.75 gain recorded in the previous week to close at 27,577.52- ASI remains battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50

In addition, the All Share Index traded within the   range of 27,707.12 (week-high) and 27,503.81 (week-low) to settle at 27,577.52 - above previous week’s low (27,368.41) by 388.26- This indicates sustained low-key bargain sentiments when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals low-key bargain postures.

In the week just ended, market breadth closed negative at 0.82x against 1.28x recorded in the previous week on the back of low risk appetite.

Likely trends in the coming periods: We expect an improved bargain pattern as investors had displayed improved risk appetite with positive divergence during the week while RSI is now in bargain range.



Technically, market sentiments during the bearish week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Healthcare, Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Consumer Goods and ICTsector(s), which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week

On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger in, Conglomerates, Financial Services, Services, Industrial Goods, Construction/Real Estate and Natural Resources



Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME
GUARANTY experienced moderate sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -0.10% loss in the week against +2.90% gain recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained weak bargain tendency, indicating incoming profit-taking pattern, after 22weeks rally of 88.89% experienced between April 8^th and September 9^th 2016.

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed a sustained weak bargain pattern towards the stock while RSI and CCI revealed weak uptrend momentum. The stock closed bullish in both short term and mid-long term periods, indicating sustained presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

However, we observed a significant growth in bearish volume during the week, indicating growing distribution of the stock during the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with low reliability to shed weight in the coming session, considering the weak bargain postures observed in the last three sessions in the week. Also, the overbought posture may attract profit-taking anytime soon.  A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE GAINERS
CONOIL experienced active bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +15.70% gain in the week against -5.00% loss recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a price recovery pattern in the week, following prolonged 9 weeks active sell-down of -19.17% loss, experienced between July 1^st and September 2^nd 2016.

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active and growing bargain tendency towards the stock as RSI and CCI revealed sharp uptrend momentum. The stock closed neutral in both short-term and in mid-long term periods, indicating growing presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with low reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session, considering the active demand postures observed in the week. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE LOSERS
WEMABANK experienced active sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -12.00% loss in the week against +17.20% loss recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a fresh sell-down tendency towards the stock in the week, following 2weeks rally to record 22.95% gain experienced between August 22^nd and September 6^th 2016.

Technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell-down with a sharp falling pattern in price momentum while the stock closed bearish in both short-term and mid-long term periods. This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability, to sustain the sell sentiments in coming sessions, considering the active sell momentum experienced during the week. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis



Click to view Due Diligence and Price Performance trend.

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GUARANTY

CONOIL

WEMABANK

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.