Sunday, November 06, 2016/Proshare Research

The Diagnosis
Analysis of the market activity in the week ended November 04, 2016 technically revealed sustained bearish sentiments amid increased price volatility while investors remained cautious.

However, an extensive analysis revealed sustained accumulation pattern while investors maintained opportunistic buying towards equities, particularly in Consumer Goods, Services and Agriculture sectors.

In addition, volume analysis revealed sell tendency towards STERLNBANK, GUARANTY, OANDO and ETI while investors displayed moderate bargain postures towards DIAMONDBNK, WAPCO, AFRIPRUD and ETERNA.

Nonetheless, investors displayed fresh and growing sell tendency in some active sector(s), particularly in Oil & Gas, Conglomerates and Financial Services sector(s). However, we observed fresh and growing buy tendency in Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Services. 

Summarily, the bears dominated the week, depressing the key benchmark index by 312.61 points against 302.61 loss recorded in the previous week to close at 26,981.60- ASI remains battered below its key resistance level at 41,957.50.

In addition, the All Share Index traded within the   range of 27,252.48 (week-high) and 26,981.60 (week-low) to settle at 26,981.60- below previous week’s low (27,098.52) by 116.92- This indicates growing sell sentiments when compared with previous posture. The outlook reveals active sell postures.

In the week just ended, market breadth closed negative at 0.96x against 0.69x recorded in the previous week on the back of negative sentiments.

Likely trends in the coming periods: We expect mixed sentiments to persist as Market RSI revealed weak bagain strenght while we expect investors to continue with opportunistic buying.



Technically, market sentiments during the bearish week favoured liquid and active stocks of Medium Cap categories in the sector(s) but with stronger positive sentiments in Services, Agriculture, Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods sector(s), which further revealed the sector(s) investors patronised in the week.

On the other hand, it was observed that negative sentiments appeared stronger in, Healthcare, Financial Services, Conglomerates, Oil & Gas  and Construction/Real Estate



Stock Trend & Direction
We conducted a review of stocks that have sharpened market direction and performance in the week - using technical tools like RSI, MACD, VOLUME, MFI, CANDLESTICK, MOVING AVERAGES, BOLLIGER BANDS and ACCUMULATION & DISTRIBUTION to reveal investors’ sentiments towards the market movers.

THE BIG VOLUME
STERLNBANK experienced moderate sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -8.80% loss in the week against -7.10% loss recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained sell-down pattern in the last 4weeks to record -21.70% loss, following 8weeks of sideways trading pattern of 3.92% loss experienced between August 19^th and October 7^th 2016

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell sentiments towards the stock while RSI and CCI revealed sharp fall in price momentum. The stock closed bearish in both short-term and in mid-long term periods, indicating growing presence of bears towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

Also, we observed a significant growth in bearish volume during the week, indicating active distribution from investors during the week.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has low chance, with low reliability to sustained down pattern in the coming session, considering the strong sell-off momentum. However, the price position in an extreme oversold region may incite speculative buying soon. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE GAINERS
WAPCO experienced moderate bargain tendency to close with positive sentiments in the week. The stock recorded +9.80% gain in the week against +16.30% gain recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained price recovery pattern in the last 2weeks to record 27.60% gain, following prolonged active sell-down of -59.04% loss, experienced between January 8^th and October 21^st 2016.

In addition, technical indicator (MACD) revealed active and growing bargain tendency towards the stock as RSI and CCI revealed sharp uptrend momentum. The stock closed neutral in short-term but remained bearish in mid-long term periods, indicating sustained presence of bulls towards the stock as revealed by its price moving averages.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability to extend uptrend in the coming session, considering the active demand postures coupled with upper breakout observed in the week. A Buy Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume analysis



THE LOSERS
UAC-PROP experienced active sell tendency to close with negative sentiments in the week. The stock recorded -13.80% loss in the week against -4.70% loss recorded in the previous week.

The outlook in the week revealed a sustained and growing sell-down tendency towards the stock in the last 27 months to record 88.36% loss, following 20months active rally of +172.79% experienced between June 29^th 2012 and April 30^th 2014.

Technical indicator (MACD) revealed active sell-down trend with a sharp fall in price momentum while the stock closed bearish in both short-term and mid-long term periods. This indicates growing presence of the bears towards the stock.

Technical conclusion on sentiments: The stock has moderate chance, with moderate reliability, to sustain the sell sentiments in coming sessions, considering the active sell momentum and a lower breakout experienced during the week. However, the extreme oversold posture of the stock may incite speculative trading soon. A Cautious Signal! Chart below shows MACD, candlestick, RSI and volume Analysis



Click to view Due Diligence and Price Performance trend.

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STERLNBANK

WAPCO

UAC-PROP

Disclaimer: The information provided herein is our opinion only. Under no circumstances do any statements here represent a recommendation to buy or sell your stocks or make any kind of an investment. You are responsible for your own due diligence. To summarize, we do not provide recommendations nor do we make any claims or promises that any information here will lead to a profit, loss or any other result. They are for your guidance purpose only.