The Nigerian Treasury Bills (“NT-Bills”) secondary market in the second trading week of the year maintained a bullish run as buying interests were recorded across all tenors, boosted by buoyant system liquidity (N341.46bn as of Tuesday, 10-Jan-23). Hence, we saw average yields contracted 9bps W-o-W to settle at 3.31% (vs 3.40% last week).
Demand was witnessed across the yield curve with strong buying interests on the short and mid end of the curve. Specifically, the 16-Mar-2023, 30-Mar-2023 and 13-Apr-23, bills enjoyed the most demand as their average yields contracted 262bps, 257bps and 251bps respectively.
At the Primary Market Auction (“PMA”) which held during the week, the Federal Government allotted N56.93bn, equaling the amount offered, whilst the total subscription was 6.83x. However, stop rates on the 91-Day, 182-Day, and 364-Day instruments printed at 2.00%, 4.33%, and 7.30% reflecting a decline of 75bps, 282bps and 119pbs respectively.
Find below detailed summary of the NT-Bills PMA:
Auction Date | 11-Jan-23 | 11-Jan-23 | 11-Jan-23 |
Allotment / Issue Date | 12-Jan-23 | 12-Jan-23 | 12-Jan-23 |
Tenor | (91-Day) | (182-Day) | (364-Day) |
Offer (=N=) | 1,546,116,000.00 | 1,489,311,000.00 | 53,899,205,000.00 |
Subscription (=N=) | 22,400,328,000.00 | 56,201,754,000.00 | 310,438,816,000.00 |
Allotment (=N=) | 3,154,326,000.00 | 1,489,311,000.00 | 52,290,995,000.00 |
Range of Bid Rates (%): | 2.0000-9.2400 | 4.3300-7.4500 | 6.0000-16.0000 |
Stop Rates (%): | 2.00 | 4.33 | 7.30 |
Previous Stop Rates (%): | 2.75 | 7.15 | 8.49 |
Subscription Ratio: | 14.5x | 37.7x | 5.8x |
Allotment Ratio | 0.1x | 0.0x | 0.2x |
This week, we anticipate sustained bullish sentiments on the back of buoyant system liquidity (which stood at N433.31bn as of Thursday 12-Jan-23). Thus, we advise investors to trade cautiously and take advantage of attractive bills across the curve, especially long dated instruments along with offers from corporates.
Please see indicative secondary market NT-Bills rates below:
Maturity | Tenor (Days) | Net Rate (%) p.a. | Yield (%) p.a. |
23-Feb-23 | 38 | 3.35 | 3.36 |
9-Mar-23 | 52 | 4.10 | 4.12 |
13-Apr-23 | 87 | 5.05 | 5.11 |
11-May-23 | 115 | 5.30 | 5.34 |
24-Aug-23 | 220 | 6.90 | 7.20 |
28-Sep-23 | 255 | 7.50 | 7.91 |
26-Oct-23 | 283 | 8.40 | 8.99 |
7-Dec-23 | 325 | 9.30 | 10.14 |
Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (16-Jan-23)
*Please note that the minimum subscription for NT-Bills is N100, 000.00
FGN Bond Update: Average Yield Increases 10bps W-o-W to 12.78%
In contrast to the treasury bill market, the domestic bond market closed bearish in the second trading week of the year as sell-off was recorded majorly on the long-end of the yield curve. Consequently, average bond yields increased 10bps W-o-W to settle at 12.78% (vs 12.68% last week).
Sell-off were witnessed on the long end of the curve particularly the APR-2037, JAN-2042 and MAR-2050 maturities as their average yields expanded by 36bps, 35bps and 40bps respectively.
Going into the week, we expect sustained bearish trend as investors continue to position in anticipation for the Q1:2023 FGN Bond issuance calendar. We therefore advise investors to take advantage of maturities with relatively attractive yields across the curve, particularly at the medium and long end of the curve.
Please see below FGN bond secondary market rates:
Maturity | Tenor (Years) | Yield (%) | Coupon (%) | Implied Price (N) |
Mar-24 | 1.1 | 10.57 | 14.20 | 103.83 |
Mar-25 | 2.1 | 11.12 | 13.53 | 104.52 |
Jan-26 | 3.0 | 11.37 | 12.50 | 102.81 |
Mar-27 | 4.1 | 12.61 | 16.29 | 111.59 |
Feb-28 | 5.0 | 12.22 | 13.98 | 106.50 |
Jul-34 | 11.5 | 12.97 | 12.15 | 95.16 |
Mar-36 | 13.1 | 13.33 | 12.40 | 94.25 |
Apr-37 | 14.2 | 14.27 | 16.25 | 111.86 |
Jan-42 | 19.0 | 13.83 | 13.00 | 106.74 |
Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (16-Jan-23)
*Please note that the minimum subscription for FGN-bond is N20,000,000.00