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Market | Bonds & Fixed Income

NT-Bills Update: Bearish Run as Average Yield Expands 16bps WoW to 3.47%

Jan 23, 2023   •   by Afrinvest Research   •   Source: Afrinvest   •   eye-icon 145 views

On Wednesday (25-Jan-23), the Apex bank is scheduled to roll over maturing bills worth N220.53bn at the NT-Bills Primary Market Auction (“PMA”) across the 91-, 182-, and 364-Day tenors.
 
Please see below our PMA expectations: 

 

Auction Date

25-Jan-23

25-Jan-23

25-Jan-23

Allotment Date

26-Jan-23

26-Jan-23

26-Jan-23

Tenor

91-Day

182-Day

364-Day

Offer Amount (₦' bn)

1,074,000,000

1,026,000,000

217,053,000,000

Last Stop Rate (%)

2.00%

4.33%

7.30%

Expected Stop Rate Range (%)

1.90% - 2.00%

4.00% - 4.500%

7.00% - 7.50%

 
Going into the week, we expect a bullish sentiment on the back of improved system liquidity (which stood at N473.5bn positive as of Friday 20th January 2023) Thus, we advise investors to trade cautiously and take advantage of attractive bills across the curve along with offers from corporates.
 
Please see indicative secondary market NT-Bills rates below: 

Maturity

 
Tenor (Days)

Net Rate (%) p.a.

Yield (%) p.a.

8-Jun-23

136

2.32

 2.34

10-Aug-23

199

3.24

 3.30

28-Sep-23

248

3.83

 3.93

9-Nov-23

290

4.46

 4.62

7-Dec-23

318

4.93

 5.15

11-Jan-24

353

5.51

 5.82

Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (23-Jan-23)

*Please note that the minimum subscription for NT-Bills is N100, 000.00

 
 
FGN Bonds Update: Average Yield Advanced by 68bps W-o-W to 13.42%

The bearish performance resurfaced in the domestic bond market last week, even as the DMO released the FGN bond reissuance calendar for Q1 2023. Consequently, average yields went up 68bps W-o-W to settle at 13.42% from 12.98% the previous week.


In more details, the short and long dated instruments advanced the most, as their average yields expanded (54bps W-o-W) and (86bps W-o-W) respectively. Specifically, the MAR-2027, MAR-2035 and MAR-2036 expanded 166bps, 108bps and 121bps respectively.
 
Going into the week, we expect market players to remain on the side-line in anticipation of the result of the 1st Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the year scheduled on the 23rd and 24th Jan-2023. We therefore advise investors to take advantage of maturities with relatively attractive yields across the curve.
 
Please see below FGN bonds secondary market rates: 

Maturity

Tenor (Years)

Yield (%)

Coupon (%)

Implied Price (N)

Mar-24

1.1

9.78

14.20

104.63

Mar-25

2.1

11.02

13.53

104.68

Jan-26

2.9

11.78

12.50

101.77

Mar-27

4.1

12.84

16.29

110.78

Feb-28

5.0

12.49

13.98

105.45

Jul-34

11.4

13.73

12.15

90.99

Mar-36

13.1

13.93

12.40

90.84

Jan-42

19.0

14.08

13.00

113.12

Mar-50

27.1

14.09

12.98

104.84

 Rates are valid till 01:45 pm today (23-Jan-23)

*Please note that the minimum subscription for FGN Bonds is N20, 000,000.00

 

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