Recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) shows that Nigeria’s daily average crude oil production (including condensates) stood at 1.60 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2025, compared with 1.68 mbpd in February. Excluding condensates, total crude oil output stood at 1.40 mbpd, well below the 1.47 mbpd output achieved in the previous month. Crude oil production has now declined for the second consecutive month after starting strong in January 2025, with crude oil production reaching a peak of 1.74 mbpd (including condensates). These declines reflect persistent challenges such as pipeline vandalism and oil theft.

• The m/m reduction in crude oil production was driven by lower oil output from Quao Iboe and Forcados oil terminals.
• More specifically, oil production from the multiple oil terminals fell by 722k and 976k to 0.4 mbpd and 0.7 mbpd, respectively.
• So far this year, average daily crude oil production has reached 1.67 mbpd (incl. condensates), suggesting that significant effort is required to attain the FG’s ambitious crude oil production target of 2.06 mbpd envisaged in the 2025 budget.
• In addition, recent reported attacks on Oando facilities, which have resulted in damage and leakages at oil terminals, could disrupt operations and potentially impact overall production output in the near term.    
• On the part of oil pricing, weakening oil demand driven by economic growth concerns due to the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China could drive oil prices lower.  
• On the supply side, the gradual ramp-up of crude oil production by OPEC+ producers could stock global oil supply and potentially exert downward pressure on oil prices.
• That said, lower oil prices and subdued oil production levels could potentially impact export receipts, given the nation’s reliance on crude exports. This could potentially pose significant risks to Nigeria's fiscal sustainability.
• Given persisting volatility in the global oil market and Nigeria’s vulnerabilities to oil shocks, sustained efforts should be made towards diversifying export earnings by implementing initiatives and reforms to boost non-oil exports.

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