An interesting and keenly contested election with the longest campaign period in the short history of Nigeria’s plural democracy came to an end at 4am on Wednesday. Bola Tinubu was declared winner having won 8.9million votes out of 24.96mn votes cast. The election was marred by violence, thuggery and ballot box snatching. It is the election with the lowest voter turnout (26.07%) since the return to civil rule in 1999. It points to the fact that, in all previous elections voter turnout numbers were grossly exaggerated. 

Diverse Nation with ethnic tension 

The four leading candidates represented the quadrangle of tribe, religion and cultural diversity in Africa’s largest economy ($503bn). The Southwest and Southeast had Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi, whilst the Northeast and Northwest was represented by Kwankwaso and Atiku. The voting pattern of the electorate reflected their regional biases. The legal authority of the winner is now seriously undermined by the weak moral authority arising from the narrow vote and the electoral malpractices. Data integrity in Nigeria has always been a major source of controversy, not just in elections, but also in terms of census, inflation and even the level of external reserves. Therefore, as technology continues to improve, the Big Lie of false data is beginning to catch up with Nigeria.

In the next week, as the country prepares for the governorship and state assembly polls, the political atmosphere is pregnant with expectations of the future and frustrations of the past. The economy is still reeling from the mismanagement of policy and the series of missed opportunities to put it on the path of economic take off. In particular, the bungled currency redesign project which has left the average Nigerian cash strapped. 

Never ending currency saga 

The macroeconomic disruption caused by a sharp drop of over 20% in the velocity of circulation of cash in a mostly informal economy has impoverished many and squeezed economic output and GDP. The GDP is expected to contract by as much as 3-5% in Q1’23 as a result of the currency redesign saga. The massive downtime and labour productivity losses from idle workers at the ATM is another sore point. 

Therefore, the macroeconomic implications of the political uncertainty arising from electoral malpractices and the near insanity of the cash squeeze is likely to push most Nigerians to the edge. 

The supreme court has just ruled that the legal tender status of the old Naira notes is now extended to December 31, 2023. However the Naira as a medium of exchange and a store of value remains enigmatic. 

The spectre of June 12 haunts again 

There is an eery similarity between the atmosphere in 2023 and that of June 12, 1993, which led to the near collapse of the nation with significant human and material sacrifices. Therefore, it is hoped that the fall out of this election drama will be different from that of June 12, since they say that lightning does not strike the same place twice