The nation’s crude oil production volume was up 16.87% month-on-month to 1.24mbpd (without condensates). Based on data from the National Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the increase in volume was largely driven by increases in the production volumes from both the Bonny and Brass oil fields. Having recorded three consecutive increases in production volumes, we believe the pipeline surveillance and clampdown on oil bunkering bodes well for the economy if sustained by the Federal government. Hence, we anticipate some respite in the fiscal space amidst relative stability of the international crude oil price in 2023. 

At the Bonny terminal, average daily production volume increased to 0.08mbpd (0.10mbpd with condensates) in December 2022 from 0.052mbpd (0.064mbpd with condensate) recorded in November 2022. At the Brass terminal, total production volume increased month-on-month by 43.60% to 0.019mbpd in December from 0.013mbpd recorded in November 2022. Production at Forcados terminal increased slightly month-on-month by 5.19% to 0.212mbpd (0.231mbpd with condensates) in December 2022 from 0.209mbpd (0.229mbpd with condensates) recorded in November 2022. However, Forcados terminal contributed the highest (7.17 million barrels) to total volume while Qua Iboe terminal ranked next with a total of 4.85 million barrels in December 2022. 

The country has been battling with low crude oil production, mainly due to dilapidated oil infrastructure and crude oil theft. Production maintained a steady decline from 1.4mbpd in January, to 1.26mbpd in February, to 1.24mbpd in March, to 1.22mbpd in April and to 1.02mbpd in May 2022. There was a transient recovery in June to 1.16mbpd but production declined again to 1.08mbpd in July, 0.97mbpd in August and 0.94mbpd in September before volumes began to go up again in October. At 1.6mbpd (inclusive of condensates) budgeted for 2022, the total expected volume from January to December was 584million barrels while the actual total volume produced was 502.99 million (with condensates). Consequently, there was a cumulative (January to December) shortfall of 81.01 million barrels