Tuesday,October 06, 2020 /06:00 AM / by Proshare Research /Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics
Deriving from the context of the arguments proferred by economists onboth sides of the divide, and drilling past the complexity of high-soundingeconomic expressions, the Nigerian economy when laid bare appearsstraightforward as is shown in the economic snapshots below.
Chart 1: The Moving History of Nigeria's GDP (Q1 2014-Q2 2020)
Chart 2: Nigeria's Trade Balance; The MissingDiscussion
Chart3: Remembering Home,Foreign Remittances (Inflows) 2014-2019
Chart 4:Sending Money Away, Taking Care of Remittances (Outflows)
Chart 5: ForeignReserves, from Up to Down
Foreign reserve increased M-o-M by
| +0.14% |
Period | Foreign Reserve ($'bn) |
January | 38.01 |
Feb | 36.29 |
March | 35.16 |
April | 33.52 |
May | 36.59 |
June | 36.19 |
July | 35.88 |
August | 35.67 |
Sept | 35.72 |
Source: CBN, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 6: Foreign ExchangeMovement, Climbing Mountains
Exchange rate declined by: (July 2020 - September 2020
| -5.26% |
Period | Exhange Rate (N/$) |
Jan-19 | 306.75 |
Apr-19 | 306.95 |
Jul-19 | 306.85 |
Sep-19 | 307 |
Dec-19 | 307 |
Jan-20 | 307 |
Apr-20 | 361 |
Jul-20 | 361 |
Sep-20 | 380 |
Source: CBN, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 7: Money Supply, Easing Cash flow Slowly
M1 increasaed M-o-M by: (July 2020 - August 2020)
| +4.62% |
M2 increased M-o-M by: (July 2020 - August 2020) | +3.32% |
Period | M1 (N'trn) | M1 (N'trn) |
Jan-19 | 11.14 | 26.77 |
Apr-19 | 11.26 | 27.58 |
Jul-19 | 11.45 | 28.28 |
Sep-19 | 11.12 | 27.67 |
Dec-19 | 10.53 | 28.78 |
Jan-20 | 10.33 | 29.12 |
Apr-20 | 11.62 | 31.84 |
Jul-20 | 12.56 | 33.12 |
Aug-20 | 13.14 | 34.22 |
Source: CBN, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 8: Fiscal Expenditure (Q1 2018-Q1 2020), Cooling ASpending Hunger
Fiscal expenditure declined Q-o-Q by: (Q4 2019 - Q1 2020) | -14.07% |
Period | Fiscal Expenditure (N'bn) |
Q1 2018 | 118.80 |
Q2 2018 | 2,213.13 |
Q3 2018 | 1,598.07 |
Q4 2018 | 1,939.90 |
Q1 2019 | 2,017.63 |
Q2 2019 | 2,514.02 |
Q3 2019 | 2,388.86 |
Q4 2019 | 2,414.03 |
Q1 2020 | 2,074.46 |
Source: Trading Economics, Proshare Research,Ecographics
Chart 9: Tax Revenues (2015-Q2 2020), Priming The TaxPump
Period | Total Tax (N'bn) |
2015 | 3,741.8 |
2016 | 3,307.5 |
2017 | 4,027.9 |
2018 | 5,320.5 |
2019 | 5,263.1 |
Q1 2020 | 1,190.3 |
Q2 2020 | 1,288.4 |
Source: FIRS, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 10: Unemployment(Q1 2014-Q2 2020), Finding Elusive Jobs
Unemployent increased Q-o-Q by: (Q3 2018 - Q2 2020) | +17.32% |
Period | Unemployment Rate (%) |
Q4 2014 | 6.4 |
Q4 2015 | 10.4 |
Q4 2016 | 14.2 |
Q4 2017 | 20.4 |
Q3 2018 | 23.1 |
Q2 2020 | 27.1 |
Source: NBS, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 11: Oil & GasContribution To GDP, A Slick Decline
Period | Oil Contribution | Oil Growth |
Q4 2016 | 6.75 | - 17.70 |
Q4 2017 | 7.20 | 8.38 |
Q4 2018 | 7.06 | - 1.62 |
Q4 2019 | 7.32 | 6.36 |
Q1 2020 | 9.50 | 5.06 |
Q2 2020 | 8.86 | -6.63 |
Growth in the oil and gas sector as at Q2 2020 | -6.63% |
Contribution of the oil and gas sector to GDP as at Q2 2020 | 8.86% |
Source: NBS, Proshare Research, Ecographics
Chart 12: Agriculture'sContribution to GDP, Plowing Downhill Gently
Period | Growth in Agriculture (%) | Contribution to GDP (%) |
Q4 2014 | 3.64 | 23.86 |
Q4 2015 | 3.48 | 24.18 |
Q4 2016 | 4.03 | 25.6 |
Q4 2017 | 3.71 | 26.15 |
Q4 2018 | 2.46 | 26.15 |
Q4 2019 | 2.31 | 26.09 |
Q1 2020 | 2.20 | 21.96 |
Q2 2020 | 1.58 | 24.46 |
Source: NBS, Proshare Research, Ecographics
A few other charts and tables represented below show critical economicdata that try to bridge the gap between global and continental conjecture andfacts.
Chart 13: The InflationBogey, from Nigeria to Africa with Love
Chart 14: Riding The Globaldeflation Cycle
Chart 15: ExpandingProduction in A Slow-Moving World
Chart 16: ExpandingProduction in A Slow-Moving Continent
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112. Implementation of Electronic Certificate of Capital Importation - Sep 08, 2017
113. Exposure Draft of Regulatory Framework for Unstructured Supplementary Service Data- Sep 08, 2017
114. CBN Introduces Funding for Liquidity and Intra-day Facilities for Non-Interest Banks - Aug 24, 2017
115. CBN Revised the Guidelines for Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS) - Aug 21, 2017
116. CBN Extends Timeline of BVN Enrolment for OFIs to December 31, 2017 - Aug 07, 2017
117. CBN Announces the Introduction of the Nigeria Customs Service Electronic Auction (eAUCTION) Platform - Jul 25, 2017
118. CBN Issues Statements of Payment Finality for the Nigerian Payments Schemes - Jul 25, 2017
119. CBN Directs OFIs to Enroll Customers for BVN - Apr 25, 2017
120. CBN Suspends the Implementation of Interchange Regime Indefinitely - Apr 21, 2017
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122. CBN Enhances Minimum Qualifications for Banks CCOs to Ensure Compliance - Sep 30, 2016
123. CBN Issues Directives on the Removal of Fixed Interest Rate on Credit cards - Aug 05, 2016
124. CBN Reviews Operational Guidelines for Blacklisting - Jul 13, 2016
125. CBN Publishes Exposure Draft Guidelines on Regulations & Supervision of Non-Interest MFBs in Nigeria - May 12, 2016
126. CBN Publishes Approved Guidelines on Transactions Switching in Nigeria -May 09, 2016
127. CBN pledges more interventions to create jobs, wealth - Apr 19, 2016
128. CBN Publishes Exposure Draft on Guide to Charges for Banks & OFIs in Nigeria - Mar 14, 2016
129. CBN Publishes Reports of Activities under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme - Mar 10, 2016
130. CBN Publishes Revised Guidelines on Real Sector Support Facility - Mar 10, 2016
131. CBN Releases National Financial Literacy Framework Report - Mar 07, 2016
132. CBN Publishes Guidelines for the Operations of TSA by State Governments in Nigeria - Feb 09, 2016
133. CBN Extends BVN Enrolment for Nigerian Banks' Customers in Diaspora to 30th June, 2016 - Feb 05, 2016
134. CBN Publishes Guidelines for Banking Operations in the Free Trade Zones in Nigeria - Feb 02, 2016
135. CBN Invites Financial Institutions to Make Payment of Annual Licence Renewal Fee through e-Channels - Jan 04, 2016
136. CBN Releases Revised Guidelines for Bureaux De Change in Nigeria -Dec 11, 2015
137. CBN Issues Guidelines on International Mobile Money Remittance Service in Nigeria - Nov 20, 2015
138. CBN Directs PMBs and DFIs to Comply with FG's Directives on TSA - Nov 19, 2015
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140. CBN Orders BDCs to Honour Letter of Credit Established Prior to Jun 23rd for 41 Items Ban for FOREX - Oct 23, 2015
141. CBN Publishes Guidelines for Approved Persons' Regime for Financial Institutions - Oct 22, 2015
142. CBN Issues Guidelines on the Management of Dormant Accounts & Other Unclaimed Funds by Banks & OFIs - Oct 09, 2015
143. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on Consumer Protection Framework - Sep 18, 2015
144. CBN Mandates DMBs to Equip All Branches to Treat E-dividend Mandate Form - Sep 15, 2015
145. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on Standards and Guidelines on Electronic Channels Operations in Nigeria - Sep 15, 2015
146. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on the Guidelines on Transaction Switch in Nigeria - Sep 15, 2015
147. CBN Directs Development Finance Institutions to Obtain Licence - Sep 08, 2015
148. CBN Directs Banks to Remit FG's Funds into the Treasury Single Account - Sep 08, 2015
149. CBN Finalises Guidelines for the Enrolment of Nigerian Bank's Customer in Diaspora - Aug 19, 2015
150. CBN Directs All Licensed BDCs to Consummate Transactions with Customers' BVN Effective 1st August - Jul 21, 2015
151. CBN Warns Authorized Dealers Against Funding Items Classified as "Not Valid for Forex" - Jul 01, 2015
152. CBN Extends BVN Enrollment Deadline to 31st October, 2015 - Jun 30, 2015
153. CBN Directs DMBs to Establish Industry Fraud Desks - Jun 12, 2015
154. CBN to Review the Nigerian Cheque Standards - May 04, 2015
155. CBN Moves to Check Rising Non-performing Loans in Banks - Apr 24, 2015
156. CBN Clarifies Circular on Usage of Naira Denominated Cards Overseas - Apr 24, 2015
157. CBN Stops Rendition of Returns on Defunct Micro Credit Fund - Apr 17, 2015
158. CBN Limits Naira Card Usage on Overseas Transactions to $50,000 - Apr 14, 2015
159. CBN Rolls Out Stiff sanctions to Dissuade Issuance of Dud Cheques - Apr 09, 2015
160. CBN Warns Against the Use of Foreign Currency as Medium Of Exchange in Nigeria - Apr 07, 2015
161. CBN lays Guidelines on Mobile Money Services in Nigeria - Apr 02, 2015
162. CBN Sets Regulatory Framework for Licensing Super Agents - Apr 02, 2015
163. CBN Releases Regulatory Framework for Mobile Money Services - Apr 02, 2015
164. CBN Publishes Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for DFIs in Nigeria - Mar 19, 2015
165. CBN Sets Guidelines for N300 Billion Real Sector Support Facility - Mar 04, 2015
166. CBN Directs Banks to Commence FG's Treasury Single Account Scheme - Feb 26, 2015
167. CBN Restricts Use of Unfettered Access in Exchange Manual - Feb 23, 2015
168. CBN Sets Guidelines for Advisory Council on Non-Interest Financial Institutions - Feb 20, 2015
169. CBN Closes RDAS/WDAS Foreign Exchange Window - Feb 18, 2015
170. CBN Releases Exposure Draft for Dormant Accounts Management by Banks - Feb 18, 2015
171. CBN Sets Time Bar for Resolution of Customers Complaints - Feb 18, 2015
172. CBN Issues Framework for the Implementation of Electronic Payments Incentive - Feb 13, 2015
173. CBN Sets Guidelines for Banking Operations in Free Trade Zones in Nigeria - Feb 11, 2015
174. CBN Offers Special Intervention to BDC Operators - Feb 03, 2015
175. CBN Inaugurates Financial Inclusion Steering Committee - Feb 03, 2015
176. CBN Notifies Banks on Onward Reporting of Fraud in Non-EMV Environments- Jan 30, 2015
177. CBN Directs Banks to Compute Net Open Position on Daily Basis - Jan 30, 2015
178. CBN Reviews Weekly Cash Sales to BDCs to $30,000 - Jan 23, 2015
179. CBN Reviews Foreign Currency Trading Position of Banks to 0.1% of SHF - Jan 13, 2015
180. CBN Signs MoU with Deposit Money Banks to Boost Power Supply - Dec 23, 2014
181. CBN Directs Banks to Commence Issuance of Centenary N100 Banknote - Dec 22, 2014
182. CBN Reduces Foreign Exchange Trading Position of Authorized Dealers to Zero Percent - Dec 18, 2014
183. CBN Issues 48hours Deadline for Utilization of Funds Purchased from Forex Market - Dec 18, 2014
184. CBN Releases Circular on Sales of Foreign Exchange without Adequate Documentation - Nov 21, 2014
185. CBN Releases Circular to All DMs and Merchant Banks on the Implementation of Swift SSS - Nov 20, 2014
186. CBN Kicks-off the Development of Consumer Protection Framework for Financial Institutions - Oct 22, 2014
187. CBN Sets BVN Compliance Deadline for DMBs and Bank Customers - Oct 22, 2014
188. CBN Increases Outbound International Money Transfer Limit - Oct 14, 2014
189. CBN Releases Collateral Registry Regulation - Sep 30, 2014
190. CBN Rolls Out Electronic Payments Incentive and Awareness Campaign - Sep 19, 2014
191. CBN Releases Circular on the Acceleration of Bank Verification Number - Sep 19, 2014
192. CBN Releases Guidelines for Financial Holding Company (HoldCo) - Aug 29, 2014
193. CBN Develops Authorized Signatories Verification Portal for the Banking Industry - Aug 21, 2014
194. CBN Earmarks 60% of MSME Development Fund for Women - Aug 18, 2014
195. CBN to launch Outbound Money Transfer Service with Western Union Money Transfer - Aug 14, 2014
196. CBN Reviews Electronic Payment Operations via NIBSS Instant Payment System - Aug 14, 2014
197. CBN Re-introduces ATM Cash Withdrawal Transactions Fee; Effective September 1, 2014 - Aug 14, 2014
198. CBN Excludes Non-Distributable Regulatory Reserve in the Computation of Capital of Banks - Aug 07, 2014
199. CBN Issues Draft Regulatory and Supervision Guidelines for Development Finance Institutions - Aug 05, 2014
200. CBN Releases Exposure Draft for Recommendation of Time Bar on Consumer Complaints - Jul 25, 2014
201. CBN Extends Timeline for the Resolution of Complaints on Excess Charges and Loans to 30 Days -03, 2014
202. CBN Prohibits Loan Defaulters from Further Access to Credit Facilities in the Banking System - Jul 02, 2014
203. CBN rolls out Cash-Less Policy on July 1, 2014, postpones withdrawal charges in 30 States - Jun 24, 2015
204. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Monies to Customers Shortchanged By ATMs - Jun 16, 2014
205. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Excess Commission on Turnover - Jun 13, 2014
206. CBN Maintains Highest Level in Information Security Standard (ISO27001) Compliance - Jun 12, 2014
207. CBN Extends Cashless Policy to 30 Remaining States; Kicks Off July 1st - Jun 05, 2014
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