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Economy | Reviews & Outlooks

Moody's Announces Completion of a Periodic Review for a Group of Sovereign Entities in Americas, Middle East and Africa

Sep 16, 2022   •   by   •   Source: Moody’s Investors Service   •   eye-icon 87 views

Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") has completed a periodic review of the ratings -and other ratings that are associated with the same analytical units for the rated entity (entities).

 

The review was conducted through a portfolio review discussion held on 8 September 2022 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), recent developments, and a comparison of the financial and operating profile to similarly rated peers. A possible outcome from periodic reviews is a referral of a rating to a rating committee.

 

This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future. Credit ratings and outlook/review status cannot be changed in a portfolio review and hence are not impacted by this announcement.

 

Key Rating Considerations

The principal methodology used for this review was Sovereign Ratings Methodology published in November 2019. 

 

Key rating considerations on a forward-looking basis may include but are not limited to the following summarized below.

 

Economic Strength: The intrinsic strength of the economy provides critical indications of a sovereign's resilience to shocks. A sovereign's ability to generate sufficient revenue to service debt over the medium term relies on sustained economic growth and prosperity. Metrics may include but are not limited to growth dynamics as measured by the average rate and volatility of real GDP growth; diversity and complexity as proxied by the scale of nominal GDP; and the level of wealth expressed in GDP per capita.

 

Institutions and Governance Strength: The strength of institutions and governance provide a strong indication of a government's willingness to repay its debt. They influence the sovereign's capacity and willingness to formulate and implement economic, fiscal, and monetary policies that support growth, socio-economic stability, and fiscal sustainability, which in turn protect the interests of creditors over the long term. Moody's assessment may include but is not limited to: the quality of legislative and executive institutions; the strength of civil society and the judiciary; fiscal policy effectiveness; and monetary and macroeconomic policy effectiveness.

 

Fiscal Strength: A sovereign's fiscal strength is a direct indicator of the sustainability of the sovereign's debt burden. Persistent fiscal imbalances often result in elevated leverage and deteriorating debt affordability, ultimately making the sovereign more vulnerable to financial shocks and the risk of not being able to meet its obligations. Metrics may include but are not limited to the level of general government debt relative to GDP and general government revenue, as well as general government interest payments relative to GDP and general government revenue.

 

Susceptibility to Event Risk: Susceptibility to sudden, extreme events that could severely impact the country's economy or its institutions, or strain public finances is an important indicator of a sovereign's creditworthiness. Event risks are varied and typically include domestic political and geopolitical risks, government liquidity risk, banking sector risk and external vulnerability risk.

 

Other Rating Considerations: Ratings may consider additional factors whose credit importance varies widely among the issuers in the sector or because the factors may be important only under certain circumstances or for a subset of issuers. Such factors include our assessments of environmental and social considerations. Regulatory, litigation, liquidity, technology, and reputational risk can also affect ratings.

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