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Coronanomics and the Nigerian Economy: Understanding the Realities of an Impending Recession

Jun 06, 2020   •   by Proshare Research   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 160 views

This report represents a deep dive into theemerging realities of a new world economic order that strips away pretenceabout the growingly outdated concept of globalization. The COVID-19 pandemichas shown that an integrated and tightly knit world could create lasting andcatastrophic problems and that nations may increasingly need to secure domesticsupply chains by strong backward domestic integration. The potent 'Asianisation' ofglobal supply chains has started to unravel as North America and Europe revisittheir production links to China, the s second-largest economy. Emergingmarkets such as Nigeria have also had to take a step back to see how they canprotect their economies from imported contagion of both a health and aneconomic variety.

 

The report makes a case for a new approach tofiscal and monetary policy management that it calls 'Fiscmon' whichrepresents an integrated approach that sees monetary and fiscal management tiedinto a forward plan of action to achieve clearly stated objectives within aspecified time frame. The report observes that this approach is becoming aglobal 'normal' as central banks become more assertive in intervening in thepush towards domestic economic growth and employment.

 

Nigeria's resource mindset has stayed trapped in apast that is fast becoming a burden. Within the dynamics of the new COVID-19inspired economy, fiscal policy is reduced to the task of bean-counting whilemonetary policy increasingly ascends to the status of the country's premiermacroeconomic policy driver. The recent ascendency of monetary authorities hasbecome a global event as new economic management frameworks adopted by nationsblur the once solid line between fiscal and monetary policy. As supply chainsget disrupted, and consumer spending power tails off, the trilemma of balancinggrowth, jobs and low inflation has become a Gordian knot.

 

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has since 2015(four years before the COVID-19 pandemic), taken on an increasingly aggressiverole towards determining the trajectory of economic growth by implementing aseries of intervention strategies designed to spur the growth of the realsector.

 

Monetary strategies have ranged from concessionaryagricultural loan schemes and insurance cover to aviation sector loans andspecial credit programmes for manufacturers. The outcomes of the variousinterventions have been stretched from being good to being weak. The mostsuccessful intervention of the CBN appears to be its agricultural sectorinterventions but the aviation and manufacturing initiatives have proved to bemore difficult to resolve.

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