Tuesday, February 02, 2021  / 5:31 PM / By Funsho Idowu, ProshareResearch / Header Image Credit: The Guardian Nigeria

Nigeriacould suffer a major food blowback in 2021 as the fisticuffs betweenpastoralists and farmers morph into regional theatres of conflict with regionsof the Southwest and Southeast raising their heckles over what they see as thehighhandedness of the federal government in resolving the matter of Fulaniherdsmen encroaching on private farmlands in the southern part of the country.

Withthe food inflation rate spiking to 19.56% in December 2020, analysts believethat the country cannot afford an all-out outbreak of regional conflict if theeconomy is to recover from a debilitating COVID-19-induced health pandemicoverlayed with economic dislocation. The obvious build-up of ethnic animosity,according to local economists, must be nipped in the bud to avoid disruptionsto food value chains and the destruction of property and lives.   

Slash and Burn: The Making of A Food Crisis

Foodinsecurity in Nigeria has been heightened by factors such as the poor fundingof sustainable food policies, constrained mechanized agriculture, poor ruralinfrastructure, and rising communal conflict. COVID-19 pandemic also worsenedthe situation as we saw Nigeria's food inflation risefrom 18.30% in November to 19.56% in December 2020 (see chart 1 below).

Chart 1: Food Inflation Index( Jan - Dec 2020)

Theviolent clashes between herders and farmers in the country are graduallysnowballing into an existential conflict over resources which may only getworse without an equitable and fair intervention by the federal government. Theclaim that cattle herders as their side businesses abduct individuals anddemand ransoms or rape women and men and move around with assault rifles havebeen photographed and recorded without a firm government pronouncement oraction condemning the action. This lack of intervention by the government hasgiven sop to the rumours of a supposed 'Fulani' agenda. Without a frontalaction that stops cattle herders from carrying assault weapons and destroyingpastoralists' farms the dark road to  Somalia appears to loom large on thehorizon. Political economists have called on the federal government to moveswiftly to enforce ranching and stop the outdated practice of migrant cattlerearing. For a country with an estimated population of 200m people, theconsequences of not finding an equitable resolution of the problem could bedire.

Forexample, on Sunday, January 31^st, 2020, Fulani Herdsmen stormed the Ibarapaarea of Oyo State, seized hectares of farmlands at Ayete,cut down cocoa trees, and burned down cashew plantations that were ready forharvesting. The herdsmen mounted a no cross zone on the villages and farmsseized, depriving the peasant farmers access to their sources of livelihoods.

Spooking Commodities Export

Ata time the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) plans to bring to life the NigerianCommodity Exchange (NCX), allowing farmlands to be wantonly destroyed andfarmer's income disrupted, the whole idea of an NCX falls flat on its face. The recent agrarian clashes come at a time when Nigeria is seeking todiversify its economy, promote small-scale farming productivity, and providebudgetary support to the food crop sub-sector. A swathe of cocoa plantations inthe country lies in the South-Western zone of the country in states such asOgun, Osun, and Oyo.

Asan oil-dependent economy, Nigeria is adversely affected by a slump in globaloil prices, this has prompted the country to seek to revive its agriculturalsector, notably its cash crops. Nigeria is currently the fifth-largest cocoaproducer in the world with a total output of approximately 300,000 tonnes.

Nigeriais also one of the largest producers of raw cashew nuts in shells worldwidewith a yearly export volume of at least $167 million US dollars and untappedyearly potentials of over $115.8 million US dollars. In 2017 alone, cashew nutsexporters in Nigeria exported over 220,000 tonnes of cashew nuts. Thevast global demand for cashew nuts in Nigeria by international buyers makesventuring into the export of cashew nuts from the country a lucrative business.

However,if the pastoralists-herders conflicts are allowed to fester there would be amassive reduction in Nigeria's export earnings and torch economic growth.

Operation Amotekun: Right Idea, Wrong Execution

TheAmotekun security outfit set up by the Southwest states has represented a rightstrategic move to curb errant security breeches to the regions farming andurban communities but suffers from operational confusion, poor training, andinadequate infrastructure.  A year after being inaugurated the outfit hasstill to plant roots among Southwestern communities and provide thewidely-expected security cover based on local intelligence and grass-rootmobilization.

Tofight insecurity, ensure farmgate crop protection, and support farmers ingaining unfettered access to their farms the national security architectureneeds to be revisited to provide optimal security for both cattle herders andpastoralists within the confines of global best practices and civil governancenorms.

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