Nigeria's GDP Grew By 1.87% YoY in Real Terms in Q1 2020

Monday, May 25, 2020 09:00 AM / NBS/ Header ImageCredit: NBS

Overview of GDP inQuarter One 2020

In the first quarter of 2020, Nigeria's GrossDomestic Product (GDP) grew by 1.87%(year-on-year) in real terms. Thisperformance was recorded against the backdrop of significant global disruptionsresulting from the COVID-19 public health crisis, a sharp fall in oil pricesand restricted international trade. The performance recorded in Q1 2020represents a drop of -0.23% points compared to Q1 2019 and -0.68% pointscompared to Q4 2019, reflecting the earliest effects of the disruption,particularly on the non-oil economy. Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was -14.27% compared to 5.59% recorded in the preceding quarter.

Inthe quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N35,647,406.08 million innominal terms. This performance was higher when compared to the first quarterof 2019 which recorded N31,824,349.67 million, with a nominal growth rate of12.01% year on year. Relative to the first quarter of 2019, the nominal growthrate was higher by 0.11% points but lower than the preceding quarter by -0.32%points. For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadlyinto the oil and non-oil sectors.

(Figure1):

The Oil Sector

During the first quarter of 2020, an average daily oilproduction of 2.07 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded. The productionlevel was higher than the 1.99mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by0.08mbpd and the fourth quarter of 2019 by 0.06mbpd. (Figure 2) .

Theoil sector recorded a real growth rate of 5.06% (year-on-year) in Q1 2020indicating an increase of 6.51% points relative to the rate recorded in thecorresponding quarter of 2019. However, growth decreased by -1.30% points whencompared to Q4 2019 which was 6.36%. Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sectorrecorded a growth rate of 11.30% in Q1 2020. The Oil sector contributed 9.50%to aggregate real GDP in Q1 2020, up from figures recorded in the correspondingperiod of 2019 and the preceding quarter, as the share of the non-oil economydeclined.

The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 1.55% in real terms during the referencequarter (Q1 2020). This was slower by -0.93% points compared to the raterecorded during the same quarter of 2019, and -0.72% points slower than thefourth quarter of 2019. The non-oil sector was driven mainly by Information andCommunication (Telecommunications), Financial and Insurance (FinancialInstitutions), Agriculture (Crop Production), Mining and Quarrying (Crude Petroleum& Natural Gas), and Construction. In real terms, the Non-Oil sectorcontributed 90.50% to the nation's GDP in the first quarter of 2020, less thanits share in the first quarter of 2019 which was 90.78% and the fourthquarter of 2019 recorded as 92.68%. Activities that witnessed weakerperformance relative to Q1 2019 include Quarrying, Road transport,Accommodation and Food services as well as real estate.