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Overview of GDP inQuarter Four 2019

Nigeria'sGross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.55%(year-on-year) in real terms in thefourth quarter of 2019. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2018 which recorded agrowth rate of 2.38%, this represents an increase of 0.17% points and anincrease of 0.27% points when compared with the third quarter of 2019. Thestrong fourth quarter 2019 growth rate also represented the highest quarterlygrowth performance since the 2016 recession (see Figure 1). Overall, thisresulted in annual 2019 real growth rate of 2.27%, compared to 1.91% in 2018.Quarter on quarter, real GDP growth was 5.59%. 

In Q4 2019, aggregate GDP stood at N39,577,340.04million in nominal terms. This was higher than the fourth quarter of 2018 whichrecorded an aggregate of N35,230,607.63 million, representing year on yearnominal growth rate of 12.34%. This rate was -0.31% points lower relative tothe rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 and -0.96% points lower thanthe rate recorded in the preceding quarter. For better clarity, the Nigerianeconomy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.

The Oil Sector

During the fourth quarter of 2019, average daily oil production of 2.00million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded, indicating a rise of 0.09mbpd overthe daily average production of 1.91 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2018.However, it was -0.04mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04mbpd recordedin the third quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, it is notable that oil productionremained consistently at or above 2.0mbpd all through 2019 (Figure2). 

Realgrowth of the oil sector was 6.36%  (year-on-year) in Q4 2019 indicatingan increase of 7.98% points relative to the rate recorded in the correspondingquarter of 2018. Growth decreased by -0.13% points when compared to Q3 2019which was 6.49%.  Quarter-on-Quarter, the oil sector recorded a growthrate of -20.87% in Q4 2019. On an annual basis, oil recorded 4.59% growth in2019, higher compared to 0.97% recorded in 2018. The Oil sector contributed7.32% to total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from figures recorded in thecorresponding period of 2018 but down compared to the preceding quarter, whereit contributed 7.06% and 9.77% respectively.  Oil contributed 8.78% toreal GDP in 2019.

The Non-Oil Sector

The non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms duringthe reference quarter (Q4 2019).  This was lower by -0.44% points comparedto the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher thanthe third quarter of 2019. This sector was driven, during the fourth quarter of2019, mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture(Crop Production), Financial and Insurance Services (Financial Institutions),and Manufacturing. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.68% to thenation's GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower from shares recorded in thefourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%) but higher than the third quarter of 2019(90.23%). The annual contribution of the non-Oil sector stood at 91.22% in2019.

ClickHere to Download Q4 2019 GDP PDF Report

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