Friday, December 282018 10:54 AM / FDC

MostNigerians are well aware that the agricultural sector has been neglected infavor of oil and gas. A poorly performing agricultural sector limits thedomestic supply of food, directly affecting its availability and affordability.This low productivity results in widespread food insecurity and poverty. Somestudies have shown that up to 70% of Nigerians are food insecure. Moreover, asa major employer of labor, low agricultural productivity in Nigeria wouldaffect income, increase poverty rates and limit purchasing power. It isimportant to note that although agricultural productivity has risen in recentyears, it still lags population growth, insecurity and climate change.  

Reasonsfor sub-optimal agricultural productivity are fairly well known: limitedavailability and high cost of quality inputs such as fertilizer, seed,chemicals and medicines for livestock, poor support infrastructure, weakextension services and underdeveloped financial markets. All of these factorsresult in troublingly low yields of staple crops. Despite efforts to increaserice production and favorable rice ecologies, average rice yields in Nigeriaare between 1 and 2.5 tonnes/ha against potential yields of 5–6 tonnes/ha.Although Nigeria is a major maize producing country, maize yields are less than2 tonnes per hectare on average compared to greater than 9 tonnes per hectareattained in the US.

Climate change would compound Nigeria’s agriculture productionchallenges

Giventhe current challenges to agricultural production in Nigeria, climate change isexpected to make the situation even worse. Both higher temperatures andshifting rainfall regimes will lower crop yields compared to what they could beunder a stable climate. While scientists are not certain exactly how rainfallpatterns in West Africa will change over the next century, the region willdefinitely be hotter, with negative consequences for crop production. Climatechange can also exacerbate pest and disease outbreaks. It is fair to state thatthe armyworm outbreak seen across Africa in 2017 were made worse because ofclimate change. 

Thereare also indirect ways in which climate change can affect Nigerian agriculture.Rising sea levels, heavier rainfall, and extreme heat can all take a toll onalready stressed and inadequate infrastructure which is needed to grow,harvest, store, and transport crops. Heavy rains and storm surges in coastalareas can wash out bridges and roads, while droughts can deplete reservoirsneeded to irrigate crops. Under higher temperatures, fruits, vegetables andanimal products spoil more rapidly. 

Inaddition, Nigeria is already experiencing conflicts between herdsmen andfarmers, especially in the Middle Belt Region. As population and land pressuregrow, climate change could make these conflicts even worse, and could supportrecruitment by terrorist groups. People whose livelihoods have failed becauseof drought, flooding, or other climate impacts may be desperate enough toresort to violence. Although it has not been directly proven, one can link therise of Boko Haram with dwindling water resources in the Lake Chad basin whichled to crop failure and reduced income from fishing. Farmers subsequentlyabandoned their fields as they fled from the terrorist group. This is anexample of how food insecurity, poverty, and violence can feed on one anotherin a reinforcing spiral.

Reasons to be optimistic

Despiteall of these grave concerns about how climate change will impact food securityin Nigeria, there are reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, Nigeria is anincredibly diverse country climatically, agro-ecologically, and culturally, andscientists know that diversity contributes to resilience. ‘Resilience’ is theability of a system (in this case, the Nigerian food system) to deal with changesand shocks, and continue to develop. For example, if maize output issub-optimal due to drought in a given year, millet, sorghum, and root cropscould provide generic alternatives for the population instead. If heavy rainsand flooding destroy the harvest in the Southeast, production in the Northcould compensate. As Nigeria’s agricultural sector develops, there should be afocus on maintaining and cultivating this rich diversity.

Investment in R&D is necessary

Moreover,Nigeria is still in the process of inventing itself and its future, and thecountry is fast becoming a hotbed for innovation in farming, which integratesscientific knowledge and will play a key role in climate adaptation in themedium to long term. Investment in R&D is necessary because results wouldbe used to provide information, tools and infrastructure for farmers and foodproducers to increase efficiency without adversely affecting soil fertility,water and biodiversity. 

Asthe country progresses in its development, technological innovation such asdrought resistant crops, more effective fertilizers, and dryers for safelystoring grains would be utilized more frequently. Anecdotal evidence alsosuggests that some small scale farmers are beginning to experiment withdiversifying crop production and also finding ways to protect poultry fromrising temperatures using ice blocks and improved ventilation.

Technological solutions

Technologicalsolutions can lead to improved crop yields. However, they will not solve all ofNigeria’s climate woes on their own. A ‘silver bullet’, singular solutionapproach, must be avoided in preference of a systems approach to climateresilience. Solutions will have to come from every sector of society. 

Forinstance, we can adopt community-based approaches to climate resilience likecommunity-scale water management, tree planting, community microfinance, andpeer-to-peer education, just to name a few. Important lessons can be learnedfrom other countries’ success in building resilience to climate change. Forexample, Nepal has been lauded for its comprehensive approach to climateresilience at the community scale. 

Broadeningparticipation in agriculture, particularly by young people, is also animportant part of building resilience to climate change. Younger Nigerians willface more of the effects of climate change over the course of their life timesso they should be integrally involved in designing solutions at the individual,community, and national scales. 

Nigeria’s situation is serious but not hopeless

Nigeria’ssituation with regards to climate change is serious, but not hopeless. IfNigeria is to effectively tackle the enormous challenges to food securitypresented by climate change, then innovation and awareness of climate changeimpacts should be cultivated in all parts of the agricultural ecosystem. Foodsecurity is a significant step in ensuring a life of dignity for everyNigerian. Given its vast resources, Nigeria has the opportunity to become aglobal leader in building a productive and resilient agricultural system forthe 21st century.

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