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Oil Prices Under Pressure As U.S. Shale Supply Soars – OIR 161018

Oct 17, 2018   •   by   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 4210 views

Tuesday, October 16, 2018 /06:59PM / Oilprice Intelligence Report

 

Today, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures anddata in the energy markets this week. 

We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week beforeproviding you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place inthe global energy complex over the past few days. We hope you enjoy.





- U.S. nuclear plant outages were relatively low throughout the summer, but spiked lastmonth. Nuclear plants tend to go offline for maintenance, often during springand winter months and often to coincide with the refueling cycle, but the 14.5GW that went offline in September was larger and earlier than usual. 

-   The temporary shutdown of a plant related to HurricaneFlorence magnified the disruptions. 

-  The outages put more pressure on natural gas to pick up theslack, and with natural gas inventories already at their lowest levels since2005 heading into winter, the nuclear outages helped tighten the gas market andpush up prices. 

 

Market Movers
-EnergyTransfer Partners (NYSE: ETP) said its West Texas Gulf pipeline will resume operations this weekend afterthe pipeline spilled water with non-toxic green dye and residual fuel oil inAbilene, TX. The pipeline runs from Colorado City, TX to Longview, TX. 

-Electrobras, the state-owned Brazilian utility, could beprivatized under Jair Bolsonaro, should he win Brazil’s upcoming second roundpresidential election. Bolsonaro’s top economic advisor favors selling off the company. 

-OccidentalPetroleum (NYSE: OXY) saw its shares plunge on Monday after reports that Qatar Petroleum would takeover management and operation of the Idd El-Shargi North Dome offshore oilfield after the production sharing agreement expires next year. 

TuesdayOctober 16, 2018
Ongoing production gains in the U.S. are putting some downward pressure on oilprices. The EIA said that it expects large gains from the shale patch nextmonth (more below). “Shale oil production continues unabated in the UnitedStates,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at Commerzbank. “Rising U.S. oilproduction is one key reason why the global oil market is likely to be amplysupplied next year.”

Saudi threatens oilweapon against U.S., but both sides eager to tamp down tension.Saudi Arabia shocked the oil world by seeming to threaten to engineer a pricespike if the U.S. took action against Riyadh over the apparent murder of Saudijournalist Jamal Khashoggi. However, President Trump does not appear interestedin taking action over the incident, taking Saudi assurances at face value. Sec.of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Riyadh to meet with the Saudi king, and allsigns suggest that both sides are eager to put the issue behind them. 
 
Iran says “bullying”won’t bring oil prices down. Iran’s oil minister BijanZanganeh said that the U.S. won’t bring global oil prices down by “bullying”other nations. “The oil market is suffering from short supply and this cannotbe resolved by words. Trump thinks he can bring the oil prices down bybullying,” Zanganeh said. He added that the rise of oil prices was a “self-inflicted pain”caused by U.S. sanctions and that the U.S. “has done most of the things itcould do, and there is not much left to do against Iran.”

Iran exports falling inOctober. In the first two weeks of October, Iran’s oilexports averaged 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d), down sharply from the1.6 mb/d it averaged in October, and down from the recent peak of 2.5 mb/d in April.Sanctions on Iran take effect on November 4, and most analysts see exportsfalling further over the next few weeks. 

Signs of Permianoverheating. Bloomberg reported on the signs that the Permian basin is overheating,including high costs for frac sand, six-figure salaries for truck drivers, andclogged roads from truck traffic make West Texas one of the deadliest places todrive in the country. Output is still growing, but pipeline bottlenecks havecut the monthly growth rate down by three-quarters. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)has warned producers that drilling wells too closely together has led to lowerproductivity, raising the prospect that drilling efficiencies are bumping upagainst their limits. 

U.S. to add 98,000 bpdin November. The latest Drilling Productivity Report from the EIA shows strong gains expected for next month.The EIA predicts the U.S. will add 98,000 bpd in November compared to a monthearlier. Unsurprisingly, the Permian leads the way with 53,000 bpd in growth,followed by the Eagle Ford (+15,000 bpd), the Bakken (+13,000 bpd) and smallercontributions from the Anadarko, Appalachia and Niobrara.

DOE’s coal bailout puton ice. The U.S. Department of Energy has gone to greatlengths to bail out aging coal and nuclear power plants, digging up obscurestatutes related to national security to justify subsidizing them. But the DOEproposal has apparently “run aground” at the White House, according to Politico. The White House does not think the proposal is on solidlegal ground, and perhaps more importantly, intervening in electricity marketsto prop up coal has angered the oil and gas industry, as well asenvironmentalists, consumer advocacy groups and free market proponents. Fornow, the initiative appears dead. 

AMLO tells oil companiesto show results. Incoming Mexican President Andres ManuelLopez Obrador has reiterated his support for existing oil contracts withforeign companies, but pressed them to hurry up and show results, according to Reuters. “We know we have to exceed expectations and we’re tryingto make sure we do that,” TalosEnergy (NYSE: TALO) CEO Tim Duncan, one of the executives whoattended a September meeting with AMLO, told Reuters.

Nigeria shut key oilpipeline. Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. shut down a keyoil pipeline network, the NNPC System 2E, due to an explosion triggered by oilthieves. The outage has interrupted operations at the 210,000-bpd Port Harcourtrefineries, according to S&P Global Platts

Oil companies pursueaugmented reality technologies. The Houston Chronicle reports on how the oil industry is using new technologies,such as augmented reality, in order to cut costs. Maintenance and managementdecisions can be made remotely, speeding up decision-making and defrayingexpenses. It’s somewhat of a merger between Silicon Valley and Big Oil. “Wehave some experts that travel a half-million miles a year,” Ed Moore, Chevron’senterprise architecture and strategy manager, told the Houston Chronicle.“There’s a lot of opportunity to make savings.”

U.S. oil exports toChina fall to zero. Chinese companies are cutting back inthe midst of the U.S.-China trade war, scrambling the flow of oil around theworld. In August, China’s purchases of oil from the U.S. fell to zero, after China had been the largest buyer of American crudein the first half of the year. U.S. producers are still finding buyers, but arehaving to look elsewhere. Meanwhile, Russia and Saudi Arabia are replacing theU.S. as the main suppliers to China. 

Venezuela has $949million bond payment due. Venezuela has a $949 million bondpayment due on October 27, and analysts believe it will meet the paymentschedule since the bond is backed by a majority stake in Citgo Holdings.Instead of letting creditors lay claim to Citgo, Venezuela will likely pull outall stops in order to meet the payment, analysts believe. Venezuela is already late on some $7 billion in bondpayments and is dangerously low on funds. 

Oil sands companiesscrambling amid $50-per-barrel discount. Canadian oilcompanies are hedging production, booking oil-by-rail shipments and otherwise scrambling to find storage as Western Canada Select (WCS) suffersfrom a price discount as large as $50 per barrel below WTI. The pipelines outof Alberta are full and those without pricing protection are getting slammed.

 

Previous OilpriceIntelligence Reports

1.       OilMarkets Take A Bearish Turn – OIR 121018

2.      Oil Prices Rise On Iran, HurricaneOutages – OIR 091018

3.      The Oil Price Rally Is Under Threat – OIR 051018

4.     Why Brent Broke $85 OIR 021018

5.      The $100 Oil Debate – OIR 280918

6.      Brent Oil Hits Its Highest Level Since2014 – OIR 250918

7.      Is Oil On Its Way To $80? – OIR 210918

8.     Oil Markets Unfazed By $200 BillionTrade War Escalation – OIR190918

9.      A CrucialPeriod For Oil Markets– OIR 150918

10.  Why OilPrices Are Heading HigherOIR 120918

11.  The End OfThe Oil Price Rally – OIR 080918

12.  What’sBehind The Oil Price Rally? -OIR 050918

13.  Why OilPrices Are Trending Upwards -OIR 310818

14.  Oil HoldsGains Despite Downward Pressure -OIR 290818


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