COVID-19 has led to a global health and economic crisis, which has left few countries unscathed. Like many countries, Nigeria is struggling to overcome the immediate challenges presented by the pandemic such as rising levels of inequality, ethnic tensions, and political violence. Despite these seemingly insurmountable challenges, the crises created by COVID-19 also presents opportunities for Nigeria to build a more inclusive and resilient economy. For the Nigerian economy to achieve its full potential, the country must first prioritize ensuring good governance across all institutions and enhancing citizen trust. 

The Nigerian economy and society are facing daunting challenges, yet significant opportunities do exist. Economic problems combine with conflict, both social and armed. But it also has great opportunities related to the creativity and diversity of its people, and the simple fact of its geography. Critically, the persistent failure to build a governance model that can serve as the basis of a thriving society and economy continues to be Nigeria's major blockage. Building a bright future for Nigeria will require the governance problems to be alleviated.  

Linking Nigeria's current challenges and opportunities in the context of prevailing and emerging global trends, we set out four plausible future scenarios which we call: Fire on the Mountain, Which Way Nigeria, One Chance and African Giant Awake. A sustainable powerful future in which Nigeria leads the rest of Africa as an economic powerhouse is a distinct possibility, if the right — very bold — decisions are made. Conversely, a descent into conflict is equally possible, as the internal contradictions of a system that fails to respond to national and global trends jeopardize recovery, stifle growth and worsen instability. Between these two extremes, the other scenarios portend a Nigeria that either succumbs to poor governance or fails to manage the technology revolution. In both cases, the scenarios envisage the country failing to attain its full potential.  

To achieve its potential Nigeria must make big decisions now and follow them through with wisdom and courage. The three main policy interventions required to push Nigeria towards a brighter future can be summarised in three words: innovation, green and regional. An economic, social and political revolution built on the culture of innovation would enable Nigeria to leap into the 21st century, transforming human capital and underpinning a fast-growing economy. Building on this, a push to go green is the right option for Nigeria, resulting in faster growth and better outcomes across the board, for businesses and communities alike. And strong regional leadership, particularly in trade, the key to Nigeria’s growth, will support both of these directions.  

But policy without process is like a roadmap without a car. Nigeria is capable of achieving its perfectly possible dreams. However, there will be a need for fundamental reforms. Trust and dynamism will be the key to renewal. As part of the proposed renewal in this document, all sectors in society must come together to discuss priorities for the country and ways to build trust and engender a grand national narrative for a renewed and rebranded country. 

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