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Full Report: 2021 in the Rearview, 2022 in the Headlamp; Opportunities and Threats in Nigeria's Pre-election Year

Feb 19, 2022   •   by Proshare Research   •   Source: Proshare   •   eye-icon 3590 views

Teriba's observation speaks to the sifting parts of a conflicted domestic Nigerian economy with the inflation rate falling against the backdrop of a negative current account balance, and a rise in the general price of agricultural goods as headline inflation dipped between the end of Q1 and Q3 2021. The year 2021 was a roller coaster of the good, the bad, and the downright ugly. On the good side, headline inflation fell from slightly below 19% at the end of Q1 2021 to slightly over 15% by the end of the year. On the bad side, the country's current account balance stayed negative meaning that there were more external payments (outflows) than there were incomes (inflows) indicating a negative trade balance. The ugly part of 2021 was that the internal security situation worsened, resulting in agricultural supply chain disruptions. Rising insurgency in the country's Northern food belts led to logistic disruptions between farm gates and cities, thereby pushing up domestic food costs and worsening the national standard of living.

 

Analysts have equally observed that 2021 involved several moving parts. The removal of global lockdowns and the gradual resumption of economic activities saw the economy climb steadily from a ditch. GDP growth rose to 0.51% in Q1 2021, 5.01% in Q2 2021, and 4.03% in Q3, the year ended December 2021, according to estimates at between 2.4% and 3%. With no lockdown likely in 2022, real GDP could grow between 2.5% and 3.0% unaffected by base rate considerations, unlike in 2021, where faster relative growth was to some extent attributable to the slow growth rates in Q2 and Q3 2020.

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