Monday, October 24, 2016 8:40am / fdc

Domestic commodities mainly maize, sorghum and yam are benefitting from the bountiful harvest. Retail prices are yet to respond as consumers continue to resist higher prices.

At the macro-level, stronger oil prices are likely to strengthen the naira in the near term.

The attached/below report summarizes commodity price movements for this week and its impact on your wallet.

Burning Economic Issues
• Shortage of margarine for baking products due to forex scarcity

• Emirates and Kenya Airways exit Abuja route

• Average interbank interest rates crashed to 20% pa. as FX auction disappoints

• $313m only sold, much lower than expected

• Saudi Arabia launches its first international bond sale of $17.5bn

• ExxonMobil divests from Nigerian downstream sector

• Naira flat at parallel market (N455/$), down marginally at interbank (N305.25/$)

Domestic Commodity Prices
• Price of baked products to increase by 15% - AMBCON

• Prices of bread to spike

• Rice trading at N22,600 per 50kg

• Diesel price flat at N190-N195/liter





Stock Market
•NSE ASI down by 0.01% to close at 27,596.82pts

•Dearth of positive news to boost investor sentiment





Oil prices steady above $52
• Brent crude 0.80% to $51.97pb

• WTI 0.95 % to $50.91pb

• Oil prices gained momentum due to upbeat outlook 

• “Fundamentals are improving, supply/demand are rebalancing” -Saudi Arabian Energy Minister |

• “Confident about prospects of a planned production cut in Nov. 30 meeting” - OPEC Secretary General

• Chinese crude production declined by 9.8% to 3.89mbpd

• U.S crude inventories fell by 5.2mb to 468.7mb – EIA

Outlook – oil prices
• Oil prices to trade between $50 - $55pb
• On expectation of production freeze in Nov. 30 meeting
• OPEC officials are optimistic about reaching a deal
• Production cut quotas will determine prices in the medium term
• Weak global demand not strong enough to mop up excess supply

Outlook – agric prices

Grains
• USDA unexpectedly cut forecast for global stockpiles
• This will be bullish for grain futures in the medium term

Soft

SUGAR
• Prices are expected to trade lower due to improved harvests in Brazil COCOA

• Rainfall in West Africa is expected to revive trees and improve crop harvest

Related News
1.       Rise in Crude Oil Price to Boost Nigeria’s Revenue by 8.7%

2.      Commodity Prices Remain Relatively Unchanged

3.      Domestic Commodity Prices Tick Upwards In Spite of Expected Harvests

4.      Naira Depreciates to N407/$ in the Parallel Market; Impact on Imported Commodities to be Felt in Sep

5.      Consumers Are Resisting Price Increases in the Retail Market - FDC

6.      Continuing Slide of the Naira Leading to Higher Prices of Inelastic Commodities

7.      Receding Weather Shocks Hand baton to Fundamentals

8.     Domestic Commodity Prices Remain Fairly Stable

9.      Potash Price Surge Could Lead To Higher Food Costs For Billions

10.  Domestic Commodity Prices Declining in the Last 24hours - FDC

11.   Uranium Prices Set To Double By 2018

12.  Billionaire Investors Back a Gold Price Rally In 2016

13. Nigerians are changing eating habits as tomato crisis persists