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CardinalStone Research: 2023 Outlook - Balancing The Levers

Jan 11, 2023   •   by CardinalStone Research   •   Source: CardinalStone   •   eye-icon 194 views

The troika of potential monetary policy changes, China's reopening, and recession angst could be critical to investment decision-making in 2023. Across some key markets, a second recession in three years appears likely, given the composite effects of demand-stifling strategies to stem inflation worries engineered by supply-side triggers. Having fanned the prevalent recession risks vis-à-vis rate hikes, global central banks remain unlikely to orchestrate rate cuts hurriedly. To this end, this report posits a more gradual temperance in the pace of interest rate increases or cessation of rate hikes in the second half of 2023, with support accruing from high-base effects and moderating supply-side issues. Elsewhere, the reopening of the Chinese economy portends a double-edged sword—raising hopes for brighter supply chain dynamics while potentially capping the scope for energy price moderation. Yet, it is likely to have a net-positive effect on the global economic outlook, with a knock-on effect on the urgency to reduce rates.

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