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Thursday, October15, 2020 / 04:40 AM / by Proshare Research / Header Image Credit: EcoGraphics
To complement collaborative domesticresponses to COVID-19 a strong and effective global response would quicken therate of the global economic recovery and banking sector rebound. An effectiveglobal response would lead to a recovery of the global economy at the beginningof Q1 2021 and recovery would become speedier in Q3 of 2021. With the rise in the global response to thevirus, there would be an increase in the use of A.I in banking (see Illustration 14).
Illustration14: The Global-View to Tough Choices
Banks are likely to increase theirinvestment in technology and there will be a myriad of new apps that willemerge on platforms and aggregators, which automate day-to-day activities likesavings and bill-payments (seeIllustration 15).
Illustration15: Understanding Flashes, Signals, and Responses; AnEffective Global Responses
Responding to Isolation,the Other Story
Another strategy that could kick inbetween the rest of 2020 and 2021 is the isolation response which localeconomic analysts have said would be the least desirable response strategy.This response would most likely have a direct consequence on the bankingindustry. An isolation policy might be adopted when countries senseineffectiveness in the global response to combating the virus. For example, thegovernment might decide to restrict entry and movement into the country. Bothglobal and domestic economic recovery prospects would most likely worsen as aresult of the adoption of an isolation response. Due to the inability of acountry to interact effectively with other economies, this might negativelyaffect the banking sector in Nigeria. There would likely be a decline in theconfidence in the banking system as the virus might eat deep into the bank'scapital and profitability. Furthermore, loyalty would change as customers wouldswitch banks in search of the best value propositions (see Illustration 16).
Illustration16: Responding to Isolation, the Other Story
Due to the spread of the virus and itsadverse effect on the banking industry, there would be a significant decline inthe allegiance of customers to any bank as customers would be in search ofstable banks with the best yield. Furthermore, there will be a decline inbranch activity, and increased use of contact centers as social distancingbecomes the new normal. New banks will struggle to survive as a prolongedcrisis limits investment (seeIllustration 17).
Illustration17: Understanding Flashes,Signals, and Responses; Isolation Responses
Economy Vs A Virus; Banking in Transition
Harried by the pains of shrinkingeconomies and pressured healthcare facilities banking experts to believe it iscrucial to create scenarios that help stakeholders in the banking industry makea better-informed decision. Illustration17 below presents a scenarioof the various expected growth rates of the economy combined with scenarios ofthe effectiveness in combating the spread of the virus. The best possibleoutcome for the Nigerian banking sector is for a quick recovery in the domesticeconomy combined with the discovery of a vaccine for the virus. If this occursmore banks are likely to spring forth, the profit and capital base of bankswill be strengthened, loans will rise and NPL will decline while investmentflows to the banking sector will rise significantly.
On the other hand, the worst-casescenario for the banking sector is a scenario where the rapid spread of thevirus persists and the Nigerian economy experiences a recession. If thisoccurs, the banking sector would be negatively affected as most banks would cutcost, there would be a rise in the NPL in the banking sector, 2ndtier banks would grapple for customer's loyalty, there would be a decline inprofit and earnings and the banks would tilt significantly towards digitalbanking and artificial intelligence becomes the new normal (see Illustration 18).
Illustration18: Economy Vs Virus; Banking in Transition
Monetary Policy and the Banks:When the CBN Barks
Nigerianbanks would be affected by the CBN regulations and monetary policy scheme. Itis therefore important for relevant stakeholders in the banking sector tounderstand how CBN's monetary policy either expansionary or contractionarymonetary policy given the spread of the virus will affect the banking sector.The worst-scenario outcome for the banking industry would be CBN embarking on acontractionary monetary policy and the persistent spread of the virus in thecountry. If this occurs, there would be a rise in the NPL and reduced lending,a significant decline in profit, mergers & acquisitions in the long term,artificial intelligence, and digital channels aggressively adopted and focus onreducing the cost-to-income ratio.
On the otherhand, the best possible outcome for the banking industry would be a scenario inwhich the CBN embarks on expansionary monetary policy and there is a, halt inthe persistent spread of the virus. When this occurs, there would be arestoration of confidence in the banking sector, profits for both tier 1 &2banks rise significantly, credit rises modestly and digital platforms becomearsenals of competitive warfare (see Illustration 19).
Illustration19: Monetary Policy andBank: When CBN Barks and Bites
Downloadable Versions of Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 Report (PDF)
1. Executive Summary: Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 - Oct 11, 2020
2. Full Report: Banks in H1 2020: Imagining Beyond COVID-19 - Oct 11, 2020
Related News post on Banks in H1 2020:Imagining Beyond COVID-19 Report
1. Banks in H1 2020:Imagining Beyond COVID-19
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3. Banks in H12020: Kicking-in a Response, Busting a Virus
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4. GUARANTY Declares N94bn PAT in H1 2020 Audited Results; Proposes 30K Interim Dividend, (SP:N25.65k)
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6. UBA Declares N44.43bn PAT in H1 2020 Audited Results; Proposes 17k Interim Dividend, (SP:N6.55k)
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8. UBN Declares N10.8bn PAT in Q2 2020 Results, (SP:N5.40K)
9. FCMB Declares N9.7bn PAT in Q2 2020 Results, (SP:N1.95k)
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11. FBNH Declares N49.5bn PAT in Q2 2020 Results, (SP:N5.00k)
12. UNITYBNK Declares N1.03bn PAT in Q2 2020 Results, (SP:N0.61k)
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16. Zenith Bank Share Price Hits N10.85k; Lost N249.60bn In Market CAP, -42.29% Wtd
17. ACCESS Declares N97.5bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results, Proposes N0.40k Final Div. (SP:N8.50k)
18. UBN Declares N19.9bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results Proposes N0.25k Final Div. (SP:N6.85K)
19. STANBIC Declares N75.04bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results, Proposes N2 Final Dividend,(SP:N32.50K)
20. GUARANTY Declares N196.8bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results, Proposes N2.50k Final Div. (SP:N23.80k)
21. UBA Declares N89.09bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results; Proposes 80k Final Dividend,(SP:N6.70k)
22. ZENITHBANK Declares N208bn PAT in 2019 Audited Results; Proposes N2.50k Final Div. (SP:N19.40K)
23. FCMB Declares N17.7bn PAT in 2019 Unaudited Results,(SP:N1.90k)
24. FIDELITYBK declares N29.5bn PAT in Q4 2019 Results; (SP:N2.11k)
25. WEMABANK Declares N4.4bn PAT in 2019 Q4 Unaudited Results
26. FBNH Declares N61.95bn PAT in Unaudited Q4 2019 Results, (SP:N6.95k)
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69. CBN Guidelines On The Mgmt Of Investment Account Holders For Non-interest Fin. Institutions - Apr 17, 2019
70. Monetary, Credit, Foreign Trade and Exchange Policy Guidelines For Fiscal Years 2018-2019 - Apr 04, 2019
71. CBN Grants Operators up till April 1, 2019 to Implement The Revised NCS and NICPAS - Mar 05, 2019
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73. Anti-Money Laundering And Combating The Financing Of Terrorism Policy and Procedure Manual - Feb 08, 2019
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80.CBN Releases Code of Corporate Governance for Microfinance Banks in Nigeria - Oct 30, 2018
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82. CBN Introduces Additional Template to The Redesigned CRMS - Oct 23, 2018
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93. CBN Issues Circular to All Banks on the Redesigned CRMS - Jun 07, 2018
94. CBN Issues Regulations for Transaction with Authorized Dealers in Renminbi - Jun 07, 2018
95. CBN Extends Effective Date of The Regulatory Framework For The Use of USSD to Oct 1, 2018 - Jun 01, 2018
96. CBN Direct DMBs to Pledge Collateral of N1bn Worth of Government Securities for OTC Trade Settlement - Jun 01, 2018
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101. CBN Announces Regulation For Bill Payments In Nigeria - Mar 16, 2018
102. CBN Revised Regulation for Direct Debit Scheme in Nigeria - Mar 15, 2018
103. CBN Directs DMBs to Establish Consumer Complaint Help Desk - Mar 09, 2018
104. CBN Includes Additional Provision For Dividend Pay-Outs For Nigerian Banks - Feb 20, 2018
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107. CBN Suspends Extension of Settlement Banking Arrangement to All the Clearing Sessions - Dec 22, 2017
108. CBN to Draft Framework on Credit to SMEs - Dec 05, 2017
109. CBN Extends Settlement Banking Arrangement to All Clearing Sessions Effective January 1, 2018 - Nov 10, 2017
110. CBN Issues Further Clarification on the Enforcement of GIFMIS Revenue Reference Number - Oct 24, 2017
111. CBN Unveils Framework For BVN, Watch-List Operations - Oct 23, 2017
112. Implementation of Electronic Certificate of Capital Importation - Sep 08, 2017
113. Exposure Draft of Regulatory Framework for Unstructured Supplementary Service Data- Sep 08, 2017
114. CBN Introduces Funding for Liquidity and Intra-day Facilities for Non-Interest Banks - Aug 24, 2017
115. CBN Revised the Guidelines for Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS) - Aug 21, 2017
116. CBN Extends Timeline of BVN Enrolment for OFIs to December 31, 2017 - Aug 07, 2017
117. CBN Announces the Introduction of the Nigeria Customs Service Electronic Auction (eAUCTION) Platform - Jul 25, 2017
118. CBN Issues Statements of Payment Finality for the Nigerian Payments Schemes - Jul 25, 2017
119. CBN Directs OFIs to Enroll Customers for BVN - Apr 25, 2017
120. CBN Suspends the Implementation of Interchange Regime Indefinitely - Apr 21, 2017
121. CBN Issues Circular on the Amendments of S4 Business Rules and Guidelines - Feb 02, 2017
122. CBN Enhances Minimum Qualifications for Banks CCOs to Ensure Compliance - Sep 30, 2016
123. CBN Issues Directives on the Removal of Fixed Interest Rate on Credit cards - Aug 05, 2016
124. CBN Reviews Operational Guidelines for Blacklisting - Jul 13, 2016
125. CBN Publishes Exposure Draft Guidelines on Regulations & Supervision of Non-Interest MFBs in Nigeria - May 12, 2016
126. CBN Publishes Approved Guidelines on Transactions Switching in Nigeria -May 09, 2016
127. CBN pledges more interventions to create jobs, wealth - Apr 19, 2016
128. CBN Publishes Exposure Draft on Guide to Charges for Banks & OFIs in Nigeria - Mar 14, 2016
129. CBN Publishes Reports of Activities under the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme - Mar 10, 2016
130. CBN Publishes Revised Guidelines on Real Sector Support Facility - Mar 10, 2016
131. CBN Releases National Financial Literacy Framework Report - Mar 07, 2016
132. CBN Publishes Guidelines for the Operations of TSA by State Governments in Nigeria - Feb 09, 2016
133. CBN Extends BVN Enrolment for Nigerian Banks' Customers in Diaspora to 30th June, 2016 - Feb 05, 2016
134. CBN Publishes Guidelines for Banking Operations in the Free Trade Zones in Nigeria - Feb 02, 2016
135. CBN Invites Financial Institutions to Make Payment of Annual Licence Renewal Fee through e-Channels - Jan 04, 2016
136. CBN Releases Revised Guidelines for Bureaux De Change in Nigeria -Dec 11, 2015
137. CBN Issues Guidelines on International Mobile Money Remittance Service in Nigeria - Nov 20, 2015
138. CBN Directs PMBs and DFIs to Comply with FG's Directives on TSA - Nov 19, 2015
139. CBN Extends BVN Enrolment to 31st January 2016 for Nigerian Bank Customers in Diaspora - Nov 03, 2015
140. CBN Orders BDCs to Honour Letter of Credit Established Prior to Jun 23rd for 41 Items Ban for FOREX - Oct 23, 2015
141. CBN Publishes Guidelines for Approved Persons' Regime for Financial Institutions - Oct 22, 2015
142. CBN Issues Guidelines on the Management of Dormant Accounts & Other Unclaimed Funds by Banks & OFIs - Oct 09, 2015
143. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on Consumer Protection Framework - Sep 18, 2015
144. CBN Mandates DMBs to Equip All Branches to Treat E-dividend Mandate Form - Sep 15, 2015
145. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on Standards and Guidelines on Electronic Channels Operations in Nigeria - Sep 15, 2015
146. CBN Releases Exposure Draft on the Guidelines on Transaction Switch in Nigeria - Sep 15, 2015
147. CBN Directs Development Finance Institutions to Obtain Licence - Sep 08, 2015
148. CBN Directs Banks to Remit FG's Funds into the Treasury Single Account - Sep 08, 2015
149. CBN Finalises Guidelines for the Enrolment of Nigerian Bank's Customer in Diaspora - Aug 19, 2015
150. CBN Directs All Licensed BDCs to Consummate Transactions with Customers' BVN Effective 1st August - Jul 21, 2015
151. CBN Warns Authorized Dealers Against Funding Items Classified as "Not Valid for Forex" - Jul 01, 2015
152. CBN Extends BVN Enrollment Deadline to 31st October, 2015 - Jun 30, 2015
153. CBN Directs DMBs to Establish Industry Fraud Desks - Jun 12, 2015
154. CBN to Review the Nigerian Cheque Standards - May 04, 2015
155. CBN Moves to Check Rising Non-performing Loans in Banks - Apr 24, 2015
156. CBN Clarifies Circular on Usage of Naira Denominated Cards Overseas - Apr 24, 2015
157. CBN Stops Rendition of Returns on Defunct Micro Credit Fund - Apr 17, 2015
158. CBN Limits Naira Card Usage on Overseas Transactions to $50,000 - Apr 14, 2015
159. CBN Rolls Out Stiff sanctions to Dissuade Issuance of Dud Cheques - Apr 09, 2015
160. CBN Warns Against the Use of Foreign Currency as Medium Of Exchange in Nigeria - Apr 07, 2015
161. CBN lays Guidelines on Mobile Money Services in Nigeria - Apr 02, 2015
162. CBN Sets Regulatory Framework for Licensing Super Agents - Apr 02, 2015
163. CBN Releases Regulatory Framework for Mobile Money Services - Apr 02, 2015
164. CBN Publishes Regulatory and Supervisory Guidelines for DFIs in Nigeria - Mar 19, 2015
165. CBN Sets Guidelines for N300 Billion Real Sector Support Facility - Mar 04, 2015
166. CBN Directs Banks to Commence FG's Treasury Single Account Scheme - Feb 26, 2015
167. CBN Restricts Use of Unfettered Access in Exchange Manual - Feb 23, 2015
168. CBN Sets Guidelines for Advisory Council on Non-Interest Financial Institutions - Feb 20, 2015
169. CBN Closes RDAS/WDAS Foreign Exchange Window - Feb 18, 2015
170. CBN Releases Exposure Draft for Dormant Accounts Management by Banks - Feb 18, 2015
171. CBN Sets Time Bar for Resolution of Customers Complaints - Feb 18, 2015
172. CBN Issues Framework for the Implementation of Electronic Payments Incentive - Feb 13, 2015
173. CBN Sets Guidelines for Banking Operations in Free Trade Zones in Nigeria - Feb 11, 2015
174. CBN Offers Special Intervention to BDC Operators - Feb 03, 2015
175. CBN Inaugurates Financial Inclusion Steering Committee - Feb 03, 2015
176. CBN Notifies Banks on Onward Reporting of Fraud in Non-EMV Environments- Jan 30, 2015
177. CBN Directs Banks to Compute Net Open Position on Daily Basis - Jan 30, 2015
178. CBN Reviews Weekly Cash Sales to BDCs to $30,000 - Jan 23, 2015
179. CBN Reviews Foreign Currency Trading Position of Banks to 0.1% of SHF - Jan 13, 2015
180. CBN Signs MoU with Deposit Money Banks to Boost Power Supply - Dec 23, 2014
181. CBN Directs Banks to Commence Issuance of Centenary N100 Banknote - Dec 22, 2014
182. CBN Reduces Foreign Exchange Trading Position of Authorized Dealers to Zero Percent - Dec 18, 2014
183. CBN Issues 48hours Deadline for Utilization of Funds Purchased from Forex Market - Dec 18, 2014
184. CBN Releases Circular on Sales of Foreign Exchange without Adequate Documentation - Nov 21, 2014
185. CBN Releases Circular to All DMs and Merchant Banks on the Implementation of Swift SSS - Nov 20, 2014
186. CBN Kicks-off the Development of Consumer Protection Framework for Financial Institutions - Oct 22, 2014
187. CBN Sets BVN Compliance Deadline for DMBs and Bank Customers - Oct 22, 2014
188. CBN Increases Outbound International Money Transfer Limit - Oct 14, 2014
189. CBN Releases Collateral Registry Regulation - Sep 30, 2014
190. CBN Rolls Out Electronic Payments Incentive and Awareness Campaign - Sep 19, 2014
191. CBN Releases Circular on the Acceleration of Bank Verification Number - Sep 19, 2014
192. CBN Releases Guidelines for Financial Holding Company (HoldCo) - Aug 29, 2014
193. CBN Develops Authorized Signatories Verification Portal for the Banking Industry - Aug 21, 2014
194. CBN Earmarks 60% of MSME Development Fund for Women - Aug 18, 2014
195. CBN to launch Outbound Money Transfer Service with Western Union Money Transfer - Aug 14, 2014
196. CBN Reviews Electronic Payment Operations via NIBSS Instant Payment System - Aug 14, 2014
197. CBN Re-introduces ATM Cash Withdrawal Transactions Fee; Effective September 1, 2014 - Aug 14, 2014
198. CBN Excludes Non-Distributable Regulatory Reserve in the Computation of Capital of Banks - Aug 07, 2014
199. CBN Issues Draft Regulatory and Supervision Guidelines for Development Finance Institutions - Aug 05, 2014
200. CBN Releases Exposure Draft for Recommendation of Time Bar on Consumer Complaints - Jul 25, 2014
201. CBN Extends Timeline for the Resolution of Complaints on Excess Charges and Loans to 30 Days - Jul 03, 2014
202. CBN Prohibits Loan Defaulters from Further Access to Credit Facilities in the Banking System - Jul 02, 2014
203. CBN rolls out Cash-Less Policy on July 1, 2014, postpones withdrawal charges in 30 States - Jun 24, 2015
204. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Monies to Customers Shortchanged By ATMs - Jun 16, 2014
205. CBN Orders Banks to Refund Excess Commission on Turnover - Jun 13, 2014
206. CBN Maintains Highest Level in Information Security Standard (ISO27001) Compliance - Jun 12, 2014
207. CBN Extends Cashless Policy to 30 Remaining States; Kicks Off July 1st - Jun 05, 2014
Proshare's Memo to The Market and Market Updates
1. NESG v CBN: Beyond the Battleground - The Need for Facts, Perspective and Resolution - Oct 05, 2020
2. NSE Ten Years After a Takeover: The Good, The Bad and Undecided - Sep 16, 2020
3. Online Trading Ranking Report 2020 - Trading in a Period of a Virus; Building Good Habits - Sep 02, 2020
4. Otudeko: A Boardroom Revolutionary at 77 - Aug 18, 2020
5. Roads: Concrete Vision, Asphalt Competition, Looking Ahead - Aug 01, 2020
6. CEO Remuneration 2020 Report - Paying the CEO in a Pandemic; The Unanswered Questions - Jul 30, 2020
7. Memo To AMCON: Nigerian Tax Payers are not Responsible for Repayment of Bad Debt - Jul 23, 2020
8. Coronanomics (1) - Understanding the Realities of an Impending Recession - Jun 06, 2020
9. Nigeria Cement Market's New Chess Play; Understanding The Market Dynamics - Jan 31, 2020
10. NCM2020 - Fin. MKT in Transition: Understanding Past Uncertainties; Preparing for New Possibilities - Jan 20, 2020
11. UBA's Staff Layoff; Understanding The Shifting Dynamics Of Banking's Future - Jan 20, 2020
12. Ogun State: Working Past Economic Headwinds - Nov 04, 2019
13. Banks' H1 2019 Numbers: Top Line Growth, Bottom Line Uncertainty - Sep 22, 2019
14. Ecobank Nigeria: The Case For Restructuring, Repositioning and Retooling - Jul 31, 2019
15. CEO Remuneration: Making Sense Of The Numbers For Listed Companies In Nigeria - Jul 12, 2019
16. Beyond The Noise: MTN's Post Listing Reactions, Gaps in Rules and Lessons Learnt - May 26, 2019
17. JUMIAs IPO and Q1 2019 Result; Understanding The Numbers and Ignoring the Noise - May 16, 2019
18. Ogun State: The Debt Trap- Leaning Against the Wind - April 2019
19. The National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) OTC Market Report 2018 - Feb 06, 2019
20. Surviving Uncertain Times in the Nigerian Financial Market - Jan 19, 2019
21. Unravelling The Ecobank Q3 2018 Results; Applying NAFEX, Different Outcomes Oct 26, 2018
22. Compliance With IFRS IAS21 - ETI and The Effects of Changes in Foreign Exchange Rates - Oct 25, 2018
23. Nigerian Banks' Performance - H1 2018 - Sep 26, 2018
24. Swift Correction Of Honest Mistakes Helps Build Institutional Corporate Governance - Sep 05, 2018
25. Memo To The Market - The NSE, Oscar Onyema Foundation And Corporate Governance - Aug 20, 2018
26. AMCON and Financial Services Debt Burden in Nigeria - Aug 17, 2018
27. Memo to The Market: The Oando Corporate Journey - At The Regulators Gate - Dec 10, 2017
28. Leadership, Change and Corporate Transformation - The Nigerian Experience ... - Proshare Nov 07, 2017
29. Analysing the H1 2017 Performance of FBNHoldings Plc - A Comprehensive Report - Oct 20, 2017
30. FBNHoldings Plc Q1' 2017 Performance Assessment Report Updated - Sep 25, 2017
31. Years After - 5 years of Dr. Yemi Kale's Stewardship at the NBS - Aug 24, 2016
32. Memo to the Market: Reappointing Arunma Oteh as DG, SEC - Jan 03, 2015
33. Where Nigeria got it Wrong - Proshare Dec 01, 2014
34. Fundamental Considerations for Capital Market Reforms in Nigeria ... - Proshare - Sept 06, 2010
35. The Bull in the China Shop - A New Paradigm in the Nigerian Financial Markets? - Aug 21, 2009
36. Making Money in The Nigerian Capital Market Report - Apr 25, 2009
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